The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:24 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 10:47 AM Stafford picks apart a secondary with nothing left. Arizona dinks and chases. script partly held 6 hit5 missed projection B · 75 open
Arizona can stop the run and nothing else, so the Rams throw from in front; the lever is whether Stafford's 50-attempt pace survives a two-score lead.
Los Angeles should control this through the air from the opening quarter: Arizona cannot generate pressure at a league rate and ranks 31st in pass EPA allowed, which is the one thing the Rams do best. Arizona's counter — a short, high-volume passing game — meets the league's stingiest yards-per-attempt defense, so the Cardinals should move the chains in small pieces and stall. Expect a lot of snaps: both offenses are above the league play rate and the trailing team will push tempo. The Rams' points arrive as touchdowns more than field goals here, because Arizona surrenders scores on nearly 70% of red-zone trips.
Arizona won 18-16 at SoFi on five Cade Ryland field goals and a last-second 43-yarder, covering +12.5 and cashing the under by 17.5 — the Rams never led by more than three, lost the possession battle 34:52 to 25:08, and the projection's only big team-level error was 32 implied points for a Los Angeles offense that ran 57 plays under pressure.
The plan found the correct path — it wrote the underdog route almost exactly (long dink drives, time of possession, Rams giveaways) and then bet against it, leaning on a 50-attempt Stafford script that required Los Angeles to be in front. It also flagged the thing that actually broke the Rams: S4's note that Quessenberry at left tackle was the hidden risk to every passing call, which turned into 3 sacks and 7 hits. What it missed was the clause it wrote itself — Arizona won precisely by stacking Ryland field goals rather than touchdowns, so the underdog cashed while failing the plan's stated requirement. The call record (6-5) is better than the parlay record suggests: the 'Arizona dinks and stalls' trio swept on exactly the mechanism it described, and the Rams trio died on volume, not on reads.
The script: Arizona ran the underdog path as written — 72 plays, 34:52 of possession, drives of 15 and 14 plays, one turnover after the first quarter and three Rams drives killed inside Arizona territory (4th-and-1 stuff at Q3 2:44, the Higbee strip at Q4 8:05, 4th-and-8 at Q4 3:23). But the plan said Arizona had to finish with touchdowns rather than Ryland field goals; they went 0-for-5 in the red zone and won anyway. The checks confirm the two mechanical misses: pace came in average (126 plays vs 121.5 league) rather than fast, and Arizona's lean was run (50.0% pass vs a 62.9% season rate), which is the whole reason Stafford only got 33 attempts.
Expected: 36-42 attempts, a pass rate near 65% even in front, Nacua at 10-13 targets, Higbee 5-7, Williams 18-22 touches split between carries and checkdowns, and the points arriving as touchdowns rather than field goals.
Happened: The lean held (63.2% pass rate, 64.4% on early downs, checks say balanced against its own 63.8% season rate) but every quantity came in low: 33 attempts not 36-42, Nacua 7 targets not 10-13, Higbee 4 not 5-7, Williams 16 touches not 18-22. Points did arrive as touchdowns (2 TD, 1 FG) — there just weren't enough drives.
Expected: 38-42 attempts at a low aDOT, McBride 10-12 targets, Wilson 7-9, Bourne and Brooks splitting the rest, Allgeier 12-15 carries with 2-4 targets, and points that require near-perfect red-zone work to reach the implied 19.5.
Happened: The target tree was right — McBride 9, Wilson 7, Bourne and Brooks 11 between them, aDOT 5.3 — but the volume premise inverted: 35 attempts against 38-42 expected and 36 carries, and Allgeier took 18 carries instead of 12-15. The 'near-perfect red-zone work' caveat was prophetic in reverse: 0-for-5 and still 18 points.
Los Angeles should control this through the air from the opening quarter: Arizona cannot generate pressure at a league rate and ranks 31st in pass EPA allowed, which is the one thing the Rams do best. Arizona's counter — a short, high-volume passing game — meets the league's stingiest yards-per-attempt defense, so the Cardinals should move the chains in small pieces and stall. Expect a lot of snaps: both offenses are above the league play rate and the trailing team will push tempo. The Rams' points arrive as touchdowns more than field goals here, because Arizona surrenders scores on nearly 70% of red-zone trips.
Stafford throws 38-42 times, Nacua and Higbee work the middle, and Williams finishes drives inside the 10. Los Angeles wins by three scores without ever needing the run game, because Arizona's front takes the handoff away and the secondary gives it all back.
Arizona stacks long dink drives, wins time of possession, and gets two or three Rams giveaways — Los Angeles has turned it over twice in four of five games. Brissett needs completions to turn into first downs rather than third-and-6, and the Cardinals have to finish trips with touchdowns rather than Ryland field goals.
The read
The Rams are favored by 12.5 into a 51.5 total, and the shape is cleaner than the number. Arizona's defense is 2nd in the league in rush EPA allowed (-0.291) and 31st in pass EPA, 32nd in yards per attempt (9.08) — a unit built to make you throw and unable to survive it. Los Angeles has thrown 55, 51 and 54 times in the last three weeks at 70.8 plays a game. Even leading, the Rams passed on 60.5% of snaps at Denver in week 3. Expect Stafford in the high 30s to low 40s in attempts against the softest coverage he has faced.
Arizona's side is the mirror: a high-volume, zero-explosive passing game (5.59 Y/A, 0-0-2 explosive passes in weeks 2-4) walking into the defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the league (165.0, rank 1) at 5.65 per attempt (rank 2). Trailing, Brissett will get 38-42 attempts and still have trouble clearing a middling yardage number. That is the central split of this card: Arizona's receptions are live, its yardage is not.
Why
Jeremiyah Love is out (Rotowire, Friday), so Tyler Allgeier is the back by default — but a two-score dog does not hand its lead back 18 carries, and Arizona ran for 3.75 a pop before this. The Rams' red-zone half matters too: Arizona allows touchdowns on 69.2% of opponent trips (rank 24) and Los Angeles converted 0.647 of its own with +0.137 EPA inside the 20, which is where Kyren Williams' goal-line role pays.
What would change it
If Los Angeles treats a 14-point lead as a reason to hand off, Stafford's volume and Nacua's targets both come down — though Arizona's run defense makes that an inefficient way to kill clock. Budda Baker and Zaven Collins are both questionable for Arizona; Collins is the highest-rated defender on that card. Alaric Jackson's one-game suspension puts Quessenberry at left tackle, which tempers any confidence in Rams protection efficiency.
A volume passing offense: 70.8 plays a game, 63.8% pass, 7.24 Y/A, +0.104 field EPA. Stafford has attempted 55, 51 and 54 in the last three weeks, and the team has produced 5-6 explosive passes in three of five games.
Chunk throws between the 20s to Nacua and Adams, then Kyren Williams from inside the 10 — he has four rushing scores. Red-zone TD rate 0.647 with +0.137 EPA inside the 20 after the early-season stalls.
Interior pressure (week 1 vs SF: 27.6% sack-or-hit, 7 points) and their own hands — two turnovers in four of five games, plus 4.2 flags a game with five pre-snap in each of weeks 3 and 5.
Arizona is 31st in pass EPA allowed and 32nd in yards per attempt (9.08), has allowed explosive passes in every game, and generates pressure at a 15.4% rate that has produced two sacks over the last two weeks. The one thing Arizona does well — 2nd in rush EPA allowed — pushes the Rams further into their best phase, exactly the trade the week-4 Arizona report flagged as a net loss.
Alaric Jackson suspended one game (Rotowire, Wednesday: reduced from two), Quessenberry at left tackle — no projection moves for it, but it is the one reason to temper the protection premise. Ferguson on IR leaves Higbee as the only TE with a route role (18-of-23 targets since). Higbee's Friday DNP was a rest day and he carries no designation (FantasyPros, Friday). On the Arizona side, Wingard is out, Will Johnson is gone, and Baker and Collins are questionable, which thins an already bottom-five coverage unit.
36-42 attempts, a pass rate near 65% even in front, Nacua at 10-13 targets, Higbee 5-7, Williams 18-22 touches split between carries and checkdowns, and the points arriving as touchdowns rather than field goals.
Completions without yards: 5.59 Y/A, 66.5% completions, 6.3 and 3.9 aDOT games, 0-0-2 explosive passes across weeks 2-4, and a run game at 3.75 YPC with 2.11 yards before contact. Field EPA -0.068.
Long possession drives — 85 plays at San Francisco, 72 twice — funneled through McBride and the short middle, plus red-zone trips finished at a 0.60 rate.
Any front that compresses the pocket (22.6% pressure vs SEA produced 95 passing yards) and their own flags: 3.2 a game with 1.6 pre-snap, 10 for 86 at San Francisco. Third downs have been 3/13, 4/13 and 8/18.
Los Angeles allows 165.0 passing yards a game (rank 1) and 5.65 per attempt (rank 2) and is the league's stingiest defense against tight ends by fantasy points allowed. It is beatable on the ground by yards — 4.59 YPC, 128.4 rush yards a game allowed — but Arizona will be chasing and cannot use that. The Rams do not pressure much (12.2% generated, rank 27), which buys Brissett completions, not yardage — the exact lesson from the week-4 review.
Jeremiyah Love is out with the ankle (Rotowire and FantasyPros, Friday), handing Allgeier the backfield with only Bam Knight behind him. Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded to Houston and Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaiah Adams are on IR — two offensive line starters gone, which is context for the pressure and run efficiency, not a number. On the Rams' defense, McDuffie and Curl are both questionable after Friday DNPs with the staff expecting them to play (Rotowire, Friday); if McDuffie sits, the perimeter opens slightly for Michael Wilson.
38-42 attempts at a low aDOT, McBride 10-12 targets, Wilson 7-9, Bourne and Brooks splitting the rest, Allgeier 12-15 carries with 2-4 targets, and points that require near-perfect red-zone work to reach the implied 19.5.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Williams had 10 carries and 6 targets but no goal-line score; LA's two red-zone touchdowns came on a 15-yard Corum reception (Q2 8:29) and the Parkinson catch at 0:52. Arizona allowed 2 TDs on 4 trips, nothing like the 70% rate the mechanism rested on.
He is the goal-line back on a team implied for 32 points, and Arizona has given up touchdowns on nearly seven of every ten red-zone trips. The receiving role gives him a second way in.
4 rushing TDs in 5 games; 16 carries plus 8 targets in week 5; ARI red-zone TD rate allowed 0.692 (rank 24) with +0.057 EPA inside its 20.
vs #26 EPA allowed. This is the red-zone-finishing half of the split, not the yardage half; anytime-TD calls are 8-of-12 on the season.
In the game: He was not the only tight end running routes — Parkinson drew 6 targets to Higbee's 4 and scored, and Higbee's day ended with 22 yards and a lost fumble. The premise about the TE room was wrong before the script was.
With Ferguson on injured reserve he is the only tight end running routes, and Arizona's linebackers have been the soft spot in the middle all season.
62, 67 and 83 yards on 5 catches in each of the last three weeks, 18-of-23 targets since Ferguson went down, 67% snaps; Parkinson had 2 targets in week 5.
vs #31 pass EPA allowed; ARI is 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Above the model's 34.5 mean; Friday's DNP was a rest day and he carries no designation (FantasyPros, Friday).
In the game: Hit at exactly 7 receptions on 9 targets, and the short-middle mechanism was visible (28 air yards on 9 looks), but it hit despite the volume premise failing — Arizona threw 35 times, not 40, and led most of the game.
Arizona's answer to everything is the short middle, and two scores down they throw 40 times. The Rams rarely pressure, which buys completions rather than yards.
10-13 targets in all five games (9/8/9/7/9 catches) at 80-97% snaps; ARI 62.9% pass rate, 73.6% once trailing in week 5; LA generates pressure at 12.2% (rank 27).
vs #19 pass EPA allowed. Our week-4 review had this exact call miss by one catch with the mechanism intact — the volume showed up then and the script this week is more pass-forced.
In the game: The interception came on 3rd-and-5 at 12:23 of the first quarter with the score 0-0, from a Fiske pressure, not from fourth-quarter chasing volume. Right result, wrong reason — Arizona threw 11 times in the fourth.
This is a script read, not an accuracy read: a two-score dog throwing 40 times in the fourth quarter is where the extra pick comes from. More attempts, more exposure.
5 INTs in 5 games including 3 at NYG; ARI implied 19.5 and down 12.5; 47 and 52 attempt games already this season when chasing.
vs #19 pass EPA allowed; LA has forced 1 or fewer turnovers in three of five games, so this leans on volume rather than a takeaway defense — the weakest rung in the book and priced as such.
In the game: 33 attempts, 222 yards. The 50-attempt pace required LA to hold the ball; they ran 57 plays total because Arizona possessed it for 34:52, and 27% pressure capped the dropbacks that remained.
Arizona takes the run away and gives up more yards per throw than anyone, so the Rams keep throwing even in front. Stafford has cleared 50 attempts three straight weeks while the model prices him near 34.
Att 55/51/54 in weeks 3-5 for 390/317/383; LA 70.8 plays and 63.8% pass; ARI allows 9.08 Y/A and 252.4 pass yards a game.
vs #31 pass EPA allowed; above both the model's 257.5 mean and the exchange's lean — the blend's 33.8-attempt assumption is the part that misses. Passing-yards calls are the plans' weakest market (45%), so this rests on attempts, not on Y/A.
In the game: Nacua's share held — 38.7% of air yards, 6-80 on 7 targets with a 43-yard explosive — but the 40-throw offense behind the call never materialized, so 7 targets could not reach 89.5 without a touchdown.
He is the whole target tree in a 40-throw offense, with no ramp since he returned. Arizona's secondary has been beaten over the top in every game this season.
12 and 24 targets in weeks 4-5 at 90% and 85% snaps for 125 and 138 yards; ARI 32nd in Y/A allowed and has allowed explosive passes in all five games.
vs #31 pass EPA allowed. The model has him at 7.6 targets because he missed weeks 2-3 — that shrink is the error; the exchange is closer than the model here.
In the game: Exactly the stated mechanism: 9 targets at 3.1 air yards apiece, 34 of his 53 yards after the catch, 7 catches without a chunk gain. Catches yes, yardage no.
His targets come at the line of scrimmage, and the Rams are the hardest defense in the league to gain yards on per throw. Catches yes, yardage no.
41, 75, 31, 66 yards after the week-1 95; ARI aDOT 3.9 and 6.3 in two of the last four; LA allows 5.65 Y/A (rank 2) and 165.0 pass yards a game (rank 1).
vs #19 pass EPA allowed, but LA is 1st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends — the one positional split that carries. The model has him at 44.8, well below the posted line; the exchange is the side to fade.
In the game: His snap share did stay at 27.6%, but the carries came anyway (9 for 42, +1.76 rush EPA, a 10+ run) because LA ran only 20 times and split them nearly evenly with Williams. The 'carries do not come back in a throwing game' premise failed on the distribution, not the script.
His snap share has collapsed to a quarter of the offense in a pass-first attack where the starter is also the checkdown back. Carries do not come back in a throwing game.
5, 5 and 6 carries in weeks 3-5 at 29%, 15% and 27% snaps; Kyren Williams at 16 carries plus 8 targets in week 5.
vs #2 rush EPA allowed. Unders against top-10 defenses are the plans' worst bucket (43%), so this rests on usage, not on the matchup; the model's 29.9 is well under the posted line while the exchange sits above it.
In the game: 24-of-35 for 218 with 135 YAC, one deep completion of three attempts and a +0.3 CPOE — completions without chunks, as described, against the league's stingiest per-attempt defense.
Arizona gets completions, not chunks, and this is the defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards in the league. Volume will be there; yards per throw will not.
5.59 Y/A on the season with 0, 0 and 2 explosive passes in weeks 2-4; LA allows 5.65 per attempt (rank 2) and 165.0 a game (rank 1); 166 yards on 35 attempts at NYG.
vs #19 pass EPA allowed, but the yards-per-attempt rank is #2 and that is the number this market pays. An efficiency call and labelled as one — the risk is 45 attempts in a blowout.
In the game: The under cashed at 38 yards but for the opposite reason: he got 18 carries, more than the plan's 12-15, in a leading script. The line-level premise (nothing before contact, 2.11 YBC/carry) is what held — 4 stuffs, 2.1 YPC.
He inherits the backfield with Love out, but a two-score underdog does not run it. Arizona's line has been giving him nothing before contact all year.
Carries of 17, 5, 2, 8, 3; ARI 3.75 YPC and 2.11 yards before contact against league marks of 4.36 and 2.54; pass rate 73.6% once behind in week 5.
vs #14 rush EPA allowed — LA is softer on raw yards (4.59 YPC, rank 24), which is the reason this is medium and not higher. Love ruled out (Rotowire, Friday) inflates the share, and inherited shares typically land a few yards under the projection.
In the game: 7 targets and 86 air yards but only 4 catches for 32, with 23 YAC — the volume and the downfield intent were there and the completion efficiency was not, exactly the short-throws-into-a-stingy-defense read.
Even with Harrison traded away his target count fell back to single digits, and the Rams' corners are the best-rated group he has seen. Short throws into a defense that concedes nothing per attempt.
7 targets for 30 yards in week 5 with Harrison already gone; 4 of 5 games under 60 yards; LA allows 5.65 Y/A (rank 2), with Watson at the 96th percentile and McDuffie the 99th.
vs #19 pass EPA allowed. The model is above the line at 66.2 — this is a deliberate departure from it on the ground that the blend leans on ARI's volume rather than LA's per-attempt suppression. McDuffie is questionable (Rotowire, Friday), which is the risk.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: Arizona's front forces Los Angeles to throw, Stafford's attempts climb, Nacua absorbs the targets, and the drives end in the end zone against a defense that allows touchdowns on 69% of red-zone trips.
Chasing volume into the league's stingiest per-attempt defense produces catches without yards — the same mechanism prints all three, and it is what this offense did at New York in week 4.
A passing script keeps the starter on the field as the checkdown and goal-line back while the change-of-pace back stays at a quarter of the snaps.
grade · 75
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32.0 | 16 | -16 | |
| Pass yds | 257.5 | 222.0 | -35.5 | |
| Rush yds | 113.5 | 92.0 | -21.5 | |
| Pass att | 33.8 | 33 | -0.8 | |
| Carries | 27.2 | 20 | -7.2 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 18 | -1.5 | |
| Pass yds | 206.2 | 218.0 | +11.8 | |
| Rush yds | 109.1 | 120.0 | +10.9 | |
| Pass att | 33.1 | 35 | +1.9 | |
| Carries | 26.5 | 35 | +8.5 |
The grade (0.747, B) is carried by player lines (0.841, 29 of 38) and by Arizona's team side, where points (19.5 vs 18), pass yards (206 vs 218) and attempts (33.1 vs 35) were close to exact. The two big flags are both volume-shape errors: Arizona ran 35 times against 26.5 projected and Los Angeles ran 20 against 27.2, because the engine blended both teams' season pass rates into a script that never arrived — ARI led or was tied for 2,850 of 3,600 seconds and became a clock team (48.6% pass rate, 44% even when trailing), while LA spent 41 of 57 snaps behind and threw. The market_score of 0.667 is honest: the spread and total calls hit, the winner did not. LA's 16 points against 32 is a three-way miss — 57 plays instead of 63, -0.112 EPA/play under a 22.2% pressure rate, and two drives ended on downs plus a strip at the ARI 22. The projection was right about the character of both passing games (short, YAC-driven, no deep shots) and wrong about who would have the ball.
Pattern: Four weeks of explosive passing allowed is the loudest signal on this team, but it is a downfield trait: when an opponent throws at 4.8 air yards, the Arizona secondary is not the problem and their blitz-generated pressure is. On offense Arizona is a yards-without-touchdowns machine — they move it between the 20s and kick.
This week: Los Angeles had the profile to cash the blueprint (season 7.24 YPA, explosive passes in every game, +0.104 field EPA) and did not try it: 4 deep attempts, 1 completion for 16, aDOT 4.8, one 20+ pass. The one time they pushed it, Nacua went for 43 and the drive ended in a touchdown.
What an opponent needs: A quarterback willing to throw past 10 air yards against five-man pressure, plus an offensive line that can handle a 38% blitz rate without false starts. Teams that live on screens and checkdowns (LA's shape here) convert the Arizona weakness into a possession game that Arizona wins.
Pattern: Los Angeles beats itself: four weeks of two-turnover games, two weeks of five-plus pre-snap flags, and a repeated habit of reaching the opponent's 25 and leaving with nothing. The defense is good enough between the 20s to keep games close for the offense to lose.
This week: Arizona did not have the efficiency to exploit the Rams in any conventional way — -0.027 EPA/play, 5-of-17 on third down, zero red-zone touchdowns — but it did execute the one path that works: own the ball, don't turn it over after the first quarter, and collect the Rams' mistakes. Two fourth-down stops, a forced fumble and two Q4 false starts were the entire margin.
What an opponent needs: A defense that can strip the ball on contact and a front that holds on 4th-and-1 (Gibbens and Mack Wilson at Q3 2:44), plus an offense disciplined enough to run 70+ plays without giveaways. Raw efficiency is optional; possession and takeaways are not.
A double-digit home favorite whose opponent is a high-play, clock-control team is a team-total trap: LA's 32 implied points needed snaps it never got (57 vs 63 projected) because ARI ran 72. Check plays/game differentials and projected TOP before buying a favorite's team total or its QB passing over.
Trigger: Favorite's projected plays within 2 of its opponent's while the dog runs 65+ plays/game and leans run when not trailing.
High field EPA with a collapsed red-zone rate is a yardage-props-hold, touchdown-props-fail game. ARI hit its projected points via five field goals with zero offensive TDs; Brissett's pass yards (218 vs 206 projected) were fine and every touchdown prop on the slate died.
Trigger: Team with positive EPA between the 20s but RZ EPA/play below -0.3 and a kicker making everything — fade anytime-TD, play yardage and alt-kicker overs.
Season pass rates are not game-state pass rates. ARI entered at 62.9% and threw 48.6% because they led or were tied for 79% of the clock; their trailing pass rate was 44%. When a big dog's path to covering is grinding, their 'chasing volume' props are a negative-EV default.
Trigger: Underdog of 10+ whose defense can keep the game under two scores; downgrade QB attempts and WR targets, upgrade the RB committee.
A 'no pass rush' defensive tag can be a blitz-rate artifact. Arizona blitzed 37.8% and produced a 27% pressure rate and 3 sacks after being tagged 'no pass rush' three times. Check whether the offense's tackle group is patched before trusting season-long pressure rates.
Trigger: A team tagged 'no pass rush' facing an offense with a line injury/suspension; sack overs and QB passing unders become live.
Scoring to take a one-point lead inside a minute against a team with timeouts and a kicker is not a close-out. LA's touchdown at 0:52 left 47 seconds, and a 21-yard throw plus a 15-yard roughness flag decided the side and the cover.
Trigger: Late go-ahead TD leaving 45+ seconds and the opponent holding two or more timeouts — the live price on the dog is still worth more than the clock suggests.
The short version
Arizona went to SoFi a 12.5-point underdog, never trailed until 47 seconds remained, and won 18-16 on Chad Ryland's fifth and sixth field goals — a 27-yarder in the fourth and a 43-yarder at 0:03. The under (51.5) cashed by 17.5 points. The projection had Arizona almost exactly right (19.5 points, 206 pass yards, 33 attempts against 18/218/35) and Los Angeles wildly high: 32 implied points for an offense that got 57 snaps, absorbed a 27% pressure rate, and left three possessions inside Arizona's 30 without points.
How it unfolded
The first quarter looked like the market's game. Brissett's third-and-5 throw for McBride was tipped by Fiske and picked by Quentin Lake at the ARI 32 (12:23), and the Rams converted the short field into a 44-yard Grupe kick. Then Arizona discovered it could hold the ball. Brissett found McBride for 26 on the next drive (8:57), Bam Knight ripped 31 off left end to the LA 10 (1:04), and the pattern was set: Arizona moved, stalled, kicked. Corum's 15-yard reception at Q2 8:29 was the Rams' only lead of the first three quarters.
The third quarter was the giveaway. Arizona burned 8:35 on a 15-play, 66-yard field-goal drive; the Rams answered by reaching the ARI 26 and handing Davis Allen the ball on 4th-and-1 into Gibbens and Mack Wilson (-4.00 EPA). Arizona then ate another 8:11 and kicked again for 15-9. Los Angeles's next three drives: a 26-yard DPI gift followed by a strip-sack recovery and then a Higbee fumble forced by Calais Simon at the ARI 22; a false start and a 4th-and-8 incompletion at the ARI 44; and finally the 91-yard, eight-play drive that worked — Nacua for 43, Nacua for 16, Parkinson for the score on review at 0:52.
That touchdown put LA up one with 47 seconds and Arizona holding timeouts. Brissett threw deep middle to Jalen Brooks for 21, Josh Wallace added 15 for unnecessary roughness (+2.86 EPA, +0.241 WP), and the rest was arithmetic.
Why the game diverged from the projection
The engine's error was volume, not talent. It blended Arizona to 61.6 plays and Los Angeles to 63.0; the actuals were 72 and 57, a 15-snap swing driven entirely by Arizona never trailing. Arizona's 62.9% season pass rate became 48.6% — 44% even in the handful of snaps they were behind. Los Angeles's pass rate held at 63.2%, so the Rams' problem was never lean; it was that 37 dropbacks is all you get when the opponent possesses the ball for 34:52 and you give three drives away.
The second error was sack rate. The projection carried LA at a 5.5% sack rate against a defense tagged "no pass rush" in three of five weeks. Arizona blitzed 37.8% (charting has blitz and box; coverage is not charted this season), producing three sacks and seven hits against a patched left tackle. Pressure is why LA's yards came at 4.8 air yards per throw and why a 25-of-33, +4.2 CPOE line produced 222 yards.
The plan against the game
The plan wrote Arizona's winning path in its own underdog paragraph — long dink drives, time of possession, Rams giveaways — and then bet the other side of it, hanging everything on Stafford reaching 38-42 attempts. The one factor it correctly named as a hidden risk, Quessenberry at left tackle, is the factor that broke the whole passing slate. Its Arizona-side reads were excellent (McBride catches over, yards under, Brissett yards under all swept on exactly the stated mechanism), and its Rams-side reads failed on quantity rather than logic. The caveat it attached to Arizona — that they'd need touchdowns instead of Ryland field goals — turned out to be wrong in the most instructive way: they went 0-for-5 inside the 20 and won anyway.
Player by player
Bam Knight (15-80) against a 2.3-carry projection is the week's lesson on stale usage shares: with Love out, the model handed the backfield to Allgeier, who took 18 carries for 38 with four stuffs behind a line averaging 2.11 yards before contact. Kendrick Bourne doubled his projected targets (8) and was the chain-mover on both long third-quarter drives. On the other side, Colby Parkinson (6 targets, 5-31, the go-ahead score) took the tight-end role the plan had assigned entirely to Higbee, who finished with 22 yards and the fumble. Nacua's targets were projected to the number (7) and still produced only 80 yards because the attempt pool shrank; Kyren Williams lost his goal-line equity to a Corum reception and split carries 10-9 with him.
The defenses
Arizona's secondary, beaten over the top in four straight weeks, faced four deep attempts all day and allowed one explosive — because the Rams never asked. Where Arizona won was sending five: 3 sacks, 7 hits, two stops on fourth down. The Rams' defense was the better unit by EPA, surrendering 72 snaps and 34:52 of clock while giving up zero touchdowns on five red-zone trips (ARI -0.606 EPA/play inside the 20 against +0.139 outside). That is bend-don't-break — except LA had allowed 1.00, 0.80 and 1.00 red-zone touchdown rates in weeks 3-5, so it is a one-week reversal, not a trait.
What the model should take from this
Two things repeat: Arizona's offense moves between the 20s and kicks, and Los Angeles loses possessions it has already earned (turnovers tagged in four of five weeks, five-plus pre-snap flags in two). One thing does not: the red-zone split in this game, on both sides, ran against every prior week and should not move the touchdown constant. The structural fix is the volume model — when a favorite's implied points require 63 snaps and the dog runs 66+ per game and leans run with a lead, the favorite's team total and its quarterback's attempt line are both overpriced before anything happens on the field.
Cardinals offenseagainst theRams defense
Projected ARI offense output — equivalently, what the LA defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 16(18) | 46(38) | 0.3(0) | 2.3(2) | 1.8(1) | 10(10) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 2(15) | 22(80) | 0.1(0) | 0(2) | 0(2) | 0(18) | 0(0) |
| RBO | no projected volume | ||||||
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 9.2(7) | 5.9(4) | 65(32) | 0.4(0) |
| WR | 4.0(8) | 2.8(5) | 31(47) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 0 |
| WR | 1.8(3) | 1.0(2) | 3(30) | 0(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 9.4(9) | 7.0(7) | 44(53) | 0.4(0) |
| TE | 1.7(3) | 1.3(3) | 16(28) | 0.1(0) |
ARI offenserank of 32LA defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 61.6: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 60%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
ARI offenserank of 32LA defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.11: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
ARI offenserank of 32LA defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.23: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 66%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.4%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.1%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rams offenseagainst theCardinals defense
Projected LA offense output — equivalently, what the ARI defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 16(10) | 71(50) | 0.8(0) | 4.9(6) | 3.6(3) | 31(17) | 0.2(0) |
| RB | 7(9) | 29(42) | 0.3(0) | 1.6(2) | 1.1(2) | 13(18) | 0.1(1) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 7.0(7) | 5.0(6) | 66(80) | 0.6(0) |
| WR | 6.1(4) | 3.9(3) | 52(39) | 0.5(0) |
| WR | 2.0(3) | 1.1(2) | 14(15) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEDNP | 3.3(4) | 2.3(4) | 33(22) | 0.3(0) |
| TELP | 1.4(0) | 0.9(0) | 10(0) | 0.1(0) |
| TE | 2.2 | 1.4 | 9 | 0.1 |
| TEFP | 1.1(6) | 0.8(5) | 4(31) | 0(1) |
LA offenserank of 32ARI defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 63.0: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 62%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
LA offenserank of 32ARI defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.18: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
LA offenserank of 32ARI defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.62: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 64%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.5%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.1%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.