The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:48 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 11:49 AM Henry pounds a Browns front missing its interior. Cleveland loses its only back and throws to survive. script partly held 5 hit5 missed projection C · 63 open
Baltimore without Lamar leans entirely on Derrick Henry against the league's softest rush-EPA defense, while Cleveland — Judkins ruled out an hour before this was written — has to win it through Watson's legs and Boston's chunk plays.
Baltimore, without Jackson, plays the game it has wanted to play all season: Henry on early downs against the league's softest rush-EPA defense, short throws from Huntley, clock. Cleveland, down to McLaughlin and Estime at back, cannot answer on the ground and ends up in Watson's quick game plus scrambles. Both red-zone defenses are tough (CLE 5th, BAL 9th in red-zone TD rate allowed), so expect field goals inside a 39.5 total. Script is a one-score Ravens lead built on possession, with Cleveland's offense needing chunk plays from Boston to keep pace.
Cleveland 13, Baltimore 10: the Ravens scored all of their points in the game's first 10:20 and then went 0-for-the-rest, losing on a 37-yard kick at 0:00 that only existed because a blocked 42-yarder was wiped out by a Baltimore defensive offside. The projection nailed the total (23 vs 39.5, Under) and whiffed on the side, mostly because it gave Baltimore 21 points and a run game that produced -0.56 EPA per carry.
The plan wrote the underdog path almost exactly as it played out — 'Cleveland hits an explosive, Watson's legs move chains, Baltimore's penalty habit stalls drives, final 20-19 with a late kick' — and the game ended 13-10 on a 37-yarder at 0:00 with Baltimore's offside giving Cleveland a second try. Where it broke was the mechanism it was most confident about: Henry against a 'softest rush-EPA defense' never happened (17-58, four TFLs), and both leans inverted — Baltimore threw at 59.6% against a 47.2% season rate while Cleveland ran its way to 51.7% passing. The receiver read inside the Browns' passing game was also the wrong name, though the pie size was right. Five hits, five misses, and most of the misses were the read (the run-front premise, Bateman's role) rather than the bounce; the exception is Watson, who missed his number by half a yard with the mechanism fully intact.
The script: The shape is the underdog path: a one-score game decided by a last-second kick, Cleveland living on Watson's six scrambles for 26 yards and a 33-yard chunk on 3rd-and-5 at Q4 0:42, with Baltimore's flags (5 of 6 pre-snap, including the offside at Q4 0:02 that erased a blocked 42-yarder) handing the Browns points. But the mechanism inside it changed hands — the explosive came from Jeudy, not Boston (1-15 on 5 targets), and the tying score came off Henry's fumble at Q4 12:45, not a chunk drive. Checks say both leans broke (BAL run called, 59.6% pass actual; CLE pass called, 51.7% actual) and the 'slow' pace call landed average at 117 plays against a 121.5 league baseline, so the possession premise — Baltimore holding the ball 33 minutes — inverted too: Cleveland had it for 31:53.
Expected: Pass rate in the low 40s, 28-32 carries, Henry at 20-24 of them, Huntley in the 26-30 attempt range with most yards going to Bateman and Flowers underneath. Points arrive through possession and field goals as much as touchdowns.
Happened: Expected low-40s pass rate, 28-32 carries with Henry at 20-24 and Bateman carrying yardage. Actual: 23 carries, Henry 17, 59.6% pass rate (72.5% while leading), Bateman 1 target at a 29.8% snap share. Only Huntley's attempt range (31) and Flowers' involvement landed.
Expected: Pass rate above 60%, Watson in the 30-34 attempt range with 7-10 carries including scrambles, Boston as the air-yards alpha and Fannin/Concepcion underneath. Points from one or two explosives plus kicks.
Happened: Expected a 60%-plus pass rate, 30-34 Watson attempts and Boston as the air-yards alpha converting. Actual: 51.7% pass, 26 attempts, Boston 1-15, and the yards came from Jeudy (4-4, 69) and the run game (93 yards). Watson's 8 carries/6 scrambles were the one part that matched.
Baltimore, without Jackson, plays the game it has wanted to play all season: Henry on early downs against the league's softest rush-EPA defense, short throws from Huntley, clock. Cleveland, down to McLaughlin and Estime at back, cannot answer on the ground and ends up in Watson's quick game plus scrambles. Both red-zone defenses are tough (CLE 5th, BAL 9th in red-zone TD rate allowed), so expect field goals inside a 39.5 total. Script is a one-score Ravens lead built on possession, with Cleveland's offense needing chunk plays from Boston to keep pace.
Baltimore wins time of possession with 28-32 carries, Henry breaks the front for a long day, and Huntley is asked for two or three throws that matter. Final looks like 23-17 with the Ravens holding the ball for 33 minutes.
Cleveland hits two explosive passes to Boston, Watson's scrambles move the chains on third down, and Baltimore's penalty habit (4.2 flags a game, 2.2 pre-snap) stalls two drives into field goals. Final looks like 20-19 with a late kick.
The read
A 39.5-total division game where both offenses have been stripped of their best player. Lamar Jackson is out (ruled out Friday, per Rotowire — he hasn't practiced since the Week 4 ankle), so Tyler Huntley starts a Ravens offense that already passed on only 47.2% of its snaps. Cleveland ruled Quinshon Judkins out after a pre-game workout Sunday morning (RotoBaller/FantasyPros, Oct 18), leaving Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime behind a run game that has posted negative rush EPA in all five games. That makes this a Henry-and-clock script with Cleveland throwing by necessity.
Why
Cleveland ranks 30th in rush EPA allowed and 23rd in yards per carry allowed (4.48), and the interior that is supposed to fix it is gone: Mike Hall out, Mason Graham not expected to play (Cabot/Schefter, Sunday), Maliek Collins limited, Carson Schwesinger a pre-game call. Baltimore is averaging 5.07 yards a carry. That is the matchup the whole game runs through, and the model historically under-rates backs against bad run defenses.
The other half: Cleveland's pass defense ranks 5th in pass EPA allowed but 20th in passing yards allowed (239.8) — it takes the ball away and gets off the field, it does not erase yardage. So Baltimore's receiving lines, set low for a backup quarterback, are still live on volume while Huntley's team total is capped by attempts.
Cleveland's own path is Watson's scrambles (38, 22, 45, 22, 40 rushing) and Denzel Boston, who has played 89-95% of snaps and taken over half the air yards every week, against a Baltimore secondary that has allowed 3+ explosive passes in four of five games.
What would change it
Baltimore falling behind early — their Week 4 first half was 69.7% pass when the game was tied. A Schwesinger activation firming the run fits. Any late word that Estime is the lead back rather than a committee. And Kalshi's player prices are thin; check the volume behind a number before taking it.
Run-first and explosive when it throws: 5.07 yards a carry and 8.99 yards an attempt on the season, with a 47.2% pass rate. Field EPA of +0.203 a play is well above league, and they finish trips at a 70.6% red-zone TD rate.
Henry's volume and goal-line work (8 rushing TDs in five games) plus a handful of chunk throws — four explosive passes in Weeks 3 and 4 each.
Themselves: 4.2 flags and 2.2 pre-snap flags a game, third-down conversion under 30% in three of five weeks, and stalls at the goal line (Henry stuffed on two fourth-and-ones at Dallas in Week 3). Interior pressure against the quarterback kills drives.
Cleveland is 30th in rush EPA allowed and 23rd in YPC allowed, with its two best interior linemen out or doubtful — this is the softest spot Henry has seen. Cleveland's pass defense is the reverse: 5th in pass EPA allowed and 8th in pressure generated, so there is no cheap passing production here, but it still allows 239.8 passing yards a game, which means yardage is available even as efficiency isn't.
Jackson out (ankle, ruled out Friday); Huntley starts, and his two appearances have been short-area (0.4 aDOT in relief in Week 4, 201 yards on 32 attempts in Week 5). Line is patched: Stanley did not practice, Simpson limited, Jurgens (acquired from Philadelphia) out with a concussion — no projection moves for it, but it tempers the efficiency read on protection. Flowers limited (toe) but reported good to go; Bateman off the report. Hibner out at TE. On the other side, Graham, Hall and Schwesinger are all in doubt for Cleveland.
Pass rate in the low 40s, 28-32 carries, Henry at 20-24 of them, Huntley in the 26-30 attempt range with most yards going to Bateman and Flowers underneath. Points arrive through possession and field goals as much as touchdowns.
A low-volume, short-passing offense (57.8 plays a game, 6.78 yards an attempt) whose rushing has been broken all season — negative rush EPA in all five games and 3.74 yards a carry. Field EPA of -0.079 a play is below league; they finish trips better than they move the ball.
Chunk plays to Boston, Fannin in the red zone, and Watson's scrambles converting third downs (five for 45 against Carolina in Week 3).
Pressure and flags. Eight sacks and a 29.5% pressure rate at the Jets in Week 5, 2.6 pre-snap flags a game (32nd), and a 62.5% red-zone TD rate that has swung from 0-for-2 to 2-for-2 week to week.
Baltimore sits 14th in pass EPA allowed and 19th in passing yards allowed, has surrendered explosive passes in four of five games, and generates only league-average pressure (19th). That is a pass-game matchup Cleveland can use. Baltimore is 16th in rush EPA allowed and 7th in rush success allowed — not a defense you fix a broken run game against, and Cleveland no longer has the back to try.
Judkins out (ankle; failed a pre-game workout per Rapoport, reported by RotoBaller Sunday morning), Sampson still on IR, Sanders on IR — McLaughlin and Estime handle the backfield, which removes the engine's lead-back volume entirely. Boston cleared (no designation, Rotowire Friday) and Concepcion out of concussion protocol. Teven Jenkins remains out on the line. Baltimore's front is missing Broderick Washington, with Campbell resting Friday.
Pass rate above 60%, Watson in the 30-34 attempt range with 7-10 carries including scrambles, Boston as the air-yards alpha and Fannin/Concepcion underneath. Points from one or two explosives plus kicks.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: The mechanism was 'primary boundary target with Huntley'; he played 29.8% of snaps and saw one target for 10 air yards while Lane (54.4%) and Walker (64.9%) played more. The role the call was built on didn't exist.
His line is priced for a backup quarterback, but with Huntley he was the primary boundary target and took the largest share of the throws downfield. A sub-25-yard number only needs two catches.
Week 5 with Huntley: 6 targets, 5-62, 41.2% air-yards share on 80% of snaps; 88, 37, 46, 62 receiving in his four healthy games. Full practice, off the injury report.
vs #5 pass EPA allowed — that rank is built on takeaways and pressure (8th), not yardage suppression: Cleveland is 20th in passing yards allowed at 239.8. Engine mean roughly doubles the line.
In the game: Hit at 4 receptions, but not for the stated reason — Cleveland did not pass-lean (51.7%), and Jeudy got there on 4 targets with a perfect catch rate at a 61.9% snap share rather than as an overflow fourth option.
A pass-leaning script with no running back forces a fourth and fifth target into the rotation, and Jeudy's snap share jumped back up last week. The number asks for almost nothing.
Week 5: 7 targets, 3 catches on 81% of snaps; 2, 0, 3, 3 receptions in his four games. Cleveland's backfield is McLaughlin and Estime with Judkins, Sampson and Sanders all out.
vs #14 pass EPA allowed. Engine mean is above the line while Kalshi prices the over under even — and that price is thin.
In the game: Missed by half a yard: 8 carries for 29 with 6 scrambles for 26, exactly the 'short-yardage answer' the plan described, and Baltimore's pass rush did arrive (5 sacks, 37.8% pressure). The reasoning was right; the number wasn't.
With the lead back out and the run game dead, Watson's legs are Cleveland's short-yardage answer. Our Week 4 review showed this read fails only when the pass rush never arrives; Baltimore's is middling.
Rushing by week: 38, 22, 45, 22, 40 — three of five clear this number. 6-11 carries every week, five scrambles for 45 against Carolina. Baltimore generates pressure at a 19th-ranked rate.
vs #16 rush EPA allowed. Engine mean is well above the line; Kalshi has it under even, which is the disagreement.
In the game: The role premise held — 92.1% snaps and a team-high 87 air yards on 5 targets, 41.2% of the air-yards share — but Watson was 1-of-4 on deep throws and Boston caught one for 15. Volume yes, conversion no.
Cleveland has no run game left, so the ball goes up, and Boston is the one receiver who never leaves the field and owns the deep targets. Baltimore has given up explosive passes nearly every week.
Snap share 92/93/89/95/91%, 7 targets in three of five weeks, air-yards share 50-63%. Baltimore allowed 5 explosive passes in Week 2, 4 in Week 5, 238 pass yards a game.
vs #14 pass EPA allowed — a mid defense, not a wall. Engine mean is well above the line; Kalshi has it near even, which is the gap.
In the game: 60 total yards: 17 carries for 58 plus one catch for 2 on a -3 air-yard target. The checkdown role the call assumed went to Justice Hill (3 targets, 3 catches) and the lead never produced the fourth-quarter carries, because Baltimore threw on 72.5% of its plays while ahead.
Same mechanism as the rushing number with the checkdowns added: in a low-attempt game with a backup quarterback, Henry is also a safety valve out of the backfield.
Targets in all five games (1-3 a week) for 19, 19, 0, 6, 18 receiving yards; 22-24 touches projected against a front allowing 4.48 YPC and missing two interior starters.
vs #30 rush EPA allowed. Our record on combined rush+rec calls is the best of any yardage market this season (61%).
In the game: 58 yards on 17 carries with four stuffs and -8.89 rushing EPA against a front the plan called the softest he'd faced. Neither the efficiency nor the volume premise (28-32 team carries; actual 23) appeared.
With Jackson out, the ground game is the whole plan, and Cleveland's interior is missing its best two linemen. This is the softest run front Henry has faced, and a lead only adds fourth-quarter carries.
Henry: 24, 16, 26, 23, 24 carries in five games, 5.07 team YPC. Cleveland allows 4.48 YPC, Hall out, Graham not expected to play (Cabot, Sunday), Collins limited, Schwesinger a game-time call.
vs #30 rush EPA allowed. Engine mean sits just under the line, but the model is known to under-respond to the opponent's run defense; Kalshi prices it a coin flip with thin volume.
In the game: Nine yards on 3 targets at an 88.9% snap share — the exact profile described, a near-every-snap tight end catching at the sticks in a 23-point game.
He plays nearly every snap but catches the ball at the sticks, not past them; his value in this offense is touchdowns and first downs, not yardage. A slow, low-total game keeps the pie small.
Receiving yards of 21, 54, 51, 27, 4 — never above 54 in five games despite 82-93% snap shares. Baltimore is 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
vs #14 pass EPA allowed. The line sits above the engine's mean while Kalshi prices the over below even; our unders in the mid rank band have hit 60% this season.
In the game: Hit at 37 yards, but the stated mechanism — collapsed snap share, fourth option behind Boston and Fannin — was wrong: Concepcion played 81% of snaps, led the team with 6 targets and tied for the team lead with 4 catches, including the 15-yarder at Q4 11:17 that set up the tying touchdown. He nearly went over as the de facto No. 2.
He is the fourth option in a short-passing attack and his snap share collapsed last week on his return from the hit. The targets that used to be his are Boston's and Fannin's.
Snap share 16% in Week 5 (one target) after 92% in Week 4; yardage line of 9, 28, 43, 64, 5 across five games — he has cleared this number once. Cleared protocol Friday but listed as a WR4 in the beat reports.
vs #14 pass EPA allowed. The line sits above the engine's own mean, and Kalshi has the over near even — that is the gap we're taking.
In the game: Hit at zero interceptions, but not through suppressed volume — Huntley threw 31 times, the full projected count, with six deep attempts. The clean sheet came from short depth (25 of 31 attempts short) and luck, not from a run-heavy script.
Picks are an attempts story, and this is the script that removes attempts: a favorite running the ball against the league's worst run-defense efficiency. Fewer throws, and most of them short.
Baltimore passes at 47.2% and 34.3% even while trailing (Week 3). Huntley has thrown no interceptions on 41 attempts across two appearances; Cleveland has forced 6 takeaways in five games.
vs #5 pass EPA allowed — the one argument against, and the reason this is not a high-confidence call. Engine mean sits near even; our own research says the model over-projects attempts for favorites and overstates this rung.
In the game: 165 yards is a hit, but it arrived on 31 attempts at 5.3 per attempt under a 23.7% pressure rate, not on the 'managed, low-attempt' game the plan described. Right side, different road.
The model prices him for a full-volume passing game; the matchup says otherwise. Baltimore's edge here is on the ground, and a backup quarterback behind a patched line gets asked to manage, not carry.
Baltimore's season pass rate is 47.2%; Huntley's one start produced 201 yards on 32 attempts at low depth, and 63 yards on 9 in relief. Stanley did not practice, Simpson limited, Jurgens out.
vs #5 pass EPA allowed and #8 in pressure generated. The engine's mean sits far above the line — this call says the blend keeps attempts at league level when this team and this script won't; our unders vs top-10 defenses are 43% this year, so size it accordingly.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: Baltimore leads, runs at a depleted Cleveland front, and the backup quarterback throws under 30 times at short depth. Henry's yardage and Huntley's suppressed volume are the same bet.
With no lead back and a run game that has never worked, Cleveland's downs run through the air and Watson's scrambles — that lifts the alpha receiver, the quarterback's legs and the fourth target at once.
A possession game in which Baltimore holds the ball shrinks Cleveland's snap count; the underneath Browns pass-catchers are the first casualties while Henry's touch total grows.
grade · 63
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.2 | 10 | -11.2 | |
| Pass yds | 235.1 | 165.0 | -70.1 | |
| Rush yds | 130.1 | 87.0 | -43.1 | |
| Pass att | 31.5 | 31 | -0.5 | |
| Carries | 28.2 | 23 | -5.2 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.2 | 13 | -5.2 | |
| Pass yds | 218.6 | 164.0 | -54.6 | |
| Rush yds | 101.9 | 93.0 | -8.9 | |
| Pass att | 31.5 | 26 | -5.5 | |
| Carries | 26.1 | 29 | +2.9 |
Grade C (0.628), dragged down by a 0.333 market score: the model's margin was the market's (-3 Baltimore) and the game landed +3 Cleveland, with only the Under cashing. The team score (0.664) is almost entirely a Baltimore points miss (21.2 projected, 10 actual, -11.2, flagged big) plus 70 fewer passing yards than projected; volume was projected well (Huntley 31 attempts vs 31.5 projected is the single best call on the card). Cleveland was graded better across the board — 13 vs 18.2 points, 93 rush yards vs 101.9 — because the engine already had the Browns as an inefficient offense (field EPA -0.079, YPC 3.74) and they played to it. The player score (0.752, 19 of 34 lines hit) survived because the shape of the passing games was right even as the names scrambled: Flowers 66 yards on a 62.4 projection, Concepcion and Jeudy's target counts near the mark, with the misses concentrated in two unprojectable roles (Cuevas, Lane) and one collapsed one (Bateman).
Pattern: Baltimore's season profile is a high-field-EPA offense (0.203) that outruns bad defenses and a secondary that leaks chunk plays almost every week. Strip the quarterback out and the first half of that disappears; the leak doesn't.
This week: Cleveland had neither the field efficiency (-0.079 season, -0.17 here) nor the explosive rate to attack it broadly — it managed exactly one 20-plus pass. It won by taking the one coverage bust it got, in the one situation (3rd-and-5, two-minute, no run threat) where Baltimore had to play back.
What an opponent needs: To beat this defense you need an explosive passing element — a receiver who wins on in-breakers past the sticks and a quarterback who'll throw past 10 air yards — plus the patience to live on Baltimore's own flags. You do not need a run game; nobody has needed one.
Pattern: Cleveland is a pressure-prone, penalty-prone offense that cannot sustain drives, attached to a defense that is better than its record. It loses when it gives the ball away two-plus times; it stays in every game when it doesn't.
This week: Baltimore tried the run-and-clock blueprint the Jets and Jaguars used and could not execute it without Jackson — 3.8 YPC, zero explosive-run EPA, and a pass rate that climbed to 72.5% while leading. The one thing it did exploit was the Browns' own pre-snap/holding habit, which cost Cleveland four points, and it still didn't matter.
What an opponent needs: To beat Cleveland you need either a pass rush that forces the giveaways their line invites (they've allowed 5, 8 and 5 sacks in three of five) or a run game with real explosive-rush rate — above roughly 3 per game and YPC over 4.5 against light boxes. A ground plan built only on their missing interior linemen is not enough.
When a run-first team loses its starting quarterback, don't project its season run rate forward — defenses stop honoring the threat and the offense ends up throwing more, not less. Baltimore's season pass rate was 47.2%; it threw on 59.6% of plays overall and 72.5% while leading.
Trigger: Starting QB ruled Out on a team whose rushing efficiency is QB-driven (designed-QB-run or option volume): fade the RB rushing over and the 'under' on backup QB attempts.
A 'depleted interior DL' narrative is not a run-blocking edge. Cleveland was missing Hall and Graham and still produced four Henry TFLs at an average faced box of 6.47.
Trigger: RB rushing overs priced on opponent DL absences rather than on the opponent's actual YPC/YBC allowed (CLE: 3.95 and 2.19, both below league).
Air-yards alpha does not equal receiving yards in a low-total grind. Boston took 41.2% of the air yards and caught 1 of 5 for 15; the yards went to the efficient role player (Jeudy, 4-for-4, 69).
Trigger: WR receiving-yards overs where the projection is built from air-yards share in a game with a sub-41 total and a QB with a negative EPA/dropback — prefer the receptions market or the secondary receiver.
Pre-snap flags are the one penalty category that persists, and they show up on special teams and defense too. Baltimore blocked a 42-yard game-winner and handed back a 37-yarder on an offside.
Trigger: Teams carrying 2.0+ pre-snap flags per game in close-game/late-FG spots — a small but real tax on live dogs and on alternate-line and FG-props markets.
A negative-EPA offense that stops turning it over becomes a live home dog in a low total. Cleveland had multi-turnover games in three of five weeks and zero here; that alone was worth the field position swing.
Trigger: Home dog of 3 or less whose losses are turnover-driven rather than efficiency-driven, in a total under 41.
The short version
Baltimore scored 10 points in the first 10 minutes and nothing for the next 50. Cleveland, an offense averaging -0.079 field EPA on the season, didn't have to be good — it had to stop giving the ball away, and for the first time in three weeks it did. The Browns won 13-10 on a 37-yard kick at 0:00 that existed only because Baltimore blocked the 42-yarder and then got flagged for being offside. The model had the right game (projected total 39.4, actual 23) and the wrong side, because it gave the Ravens 21 points and 130 rushing yards off a Lamar Jackson efficiency profile with Lamar Jackson ruled out.
How it unfolded
The first Ravens drive was the whole case for the favorite: 11 plays, 66 yards, 6:49, a fourth-and-2 touchdown throw to Josh Cuevas at Q1 8:14. The next one was free money — a 29-yard completion to Cuevas with a 15-yard roughing-the-passer tacked on — and it produced a 34-yard field goal at 4:40. Ten-nothing, and that was the last time Baltimore's offense did anything. Over the next seven possessions it punted six times and missed a 49-yard field goal, with three-and-outs bracketing both of Cleveland's fourth-quarter scores.
Cleveland spent the first half getting sacked (three of its five) and the third quarter marching: an 11-play, 57-yard drive featuring a converted fourth-and-1 at Q3 12:41, which should have reached first-and-goal before Barber's holding penalty erased a 14-yard McLaughlin run at Q3 9:00. A 48-yarder instead of seven. Then the game turned on a single carry — Henry, first-and-5, stripped by Schwesinger and recovered by Tyson Campbell at the Baltimore 35 (Q4 12:45, -5.04 EPA). Eight plays later Estime punched it in from the 2 and it was 10-10. Cleveland missed a 48-yarder at 3:44, Baltimore punted from midfield after a delay of game, and Watson's 33-yard strike to Jeudy at 0:42 did the rest.
Why the game diverged from the projection
Two numbers. First, the blended 4.61 yards per carry: Baltimore got 3.8, Henry got 3.4 with four tackles for loss, and the team's rush EPA was -0.564 against an average faced box of 6.47 — a light box that still won. The engine's 5.07 YPC input belongs to an offense with a quarterback who has to be accounted for on every snap. Second, 8.99 yards per attempt blended down to 7.47: Huntley got 5.3, on the projected number of throws, because he was hit nine times, sacked three times (23.7% sack-or-hit against a Cleveland blitz rate of only 28.9%) and went 1-for-6 on deep balls. Volume was projected beautifully; efficiency was a Jackson number applied to a Huntley game.
Cleveland's miss was the mirror. The engine expected 31.5 attempts; Watson threw 26 and the Browns ran 25 times despite trailing for 47 of 63 plays, because rushing was their efficient facet (48% rush success, -0.074 EPA/rush) and dropping back wasn't (-0.205 EPA/dropback).
The plan against the game
The plan's underdog paragraph is nearly a transcript of the fourth quarter — explosive pass, scrambles, Baltimore penalties, a late kick — but it got there on a different set of legs. Its highest-confidence call, Henry over 89.5 on a depleted Cleveland interior, was the one thing that never materialized, and both of its leans inverted: Baltimore threw more than its season rate, Cleveland threw less. The two calls built on role rather than matchup (Fannin under, Huntley pass-yards under) came in. Boston's call is the instructive one: the role held exactly as written (92.1% of snaps, 41.2% of air yards) and produced one catch for 15, which is what happens when the quarterback is 1-of-4 deep under a 37.8% pressure rate.
Player by player
Flowers was the only Ravens pass-catcher the projection recognized: 11 targets, 6-66, 38.8% of the air yards, including the 31-yard conversion on third-and-11 at Q3 1:45. Behind him the depth chart has moved — Bateman played 29.8% of snaps and saw one target, while Ja'Kobi Lane (54.4%, 4-40) and Cuevas (40.4%, 4-44 and the touchdown, with Hibner out) took the work. Henry's 17-58 and the fumble are the headline; note also that Justice Hill took 42.1% of snaps and three targets, so the checkdown share the model gave Henry isn't his.
For Cleveland: McLaughlin was the actual lead back (9 carries, 4-for-4 receiving, 61.9% snaps) while Estime took the short-yardage/goal-line split and the touchdown on 2.1 yards a carry. Jeudy was 4-for-4 for 69 at a 61.9% snap share; Concepcion played 81% of snaps and led the team in targets, which is the opposite of the 'collapsed role' the pregame read assumed.
The defenses
No pressure or coverage charting landed for this game, so the proxies: Baltimore generated three sacks and nine hits on 37 dropbacks while blitzing on 28.9% of snaps — a real four-man rush, with Campbell, Smith, Martin, Robinson/Madubuike and Hendrickson all getting home. Cleveland did it from a lighter front, averaging 4.34 rushers and an 18.4% blitz rate, and still hit Huntley nine times with two sacks in a two-minute stretch of the second quarter. Both red-zone units did what the engine said they would: three combined trips in 120 snaps, two touchdowns, five field-goal attempts.
What the model should take from this
The quarterback-dependence of Baltimore's rushing inputs is the actionable lesson. The engine blended a 5.07 YPC that came with Jackson's threat attached; without it the Ravens got 3.8 and abandoned the run, throwing on 72.5% of their snaps while leading. That's a correction to make inside the inputs, not after the fact. The Bateman snap share is a second: it's a role change with corroboration (Lane and Walker both out-snapped him), not a one-week quirk.
Two things should not move. The Henry fumble is a single strip from an offense with one turnover in five previous games, and Watson missing a 29.5-yard rushing line by half a yard with six scrambles for 26 is noise in the right direction. The penalty read, however, is worth more weight than it had: both teams were tagged for pre-snap fouls repeatedly coming in, both committed four or five here, and the game's last snap — a blocked game-winner returned to the kicker by a Baltimore offside — is the clearest illustration all season of why that one category persists.
Ravens offenseagainst theBrowns defense
Projected BAL offense output — equivalently, what the CLE defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 22(17) | 87(58) | 0.7(0) | 2.0(1) | 1.5(1) | 11(2) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 3(0) | 26(0) | 0.2(0) | 2.3(3) | 1.8(3) | 8(9) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRLP | 7.5(11) | 5.2(6) | 62(66) | 0.4(0) |
| WRFP | 4.9(1) | 3.1(0) | 49(0) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 2.5 | 1.7 | 19 | 0.1 |
| WR | 1.8(2) | 1.2(0) | 14(0) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEFP | 6.1(3) | 4.2(1) | 30(4) | 0.2(0) |
| TEO | no projected volume | |||
BAL offenserank of 32CLE defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 61.9: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 54%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 58%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
BAL offenserank of 32CLE defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.61: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
BAL offenserank of 32CLE defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.47: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 69%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 6.5%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.5%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Browns offenseagainst theRavens defense
Projected CLE offense output — equivalently, what the BAL defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBQ | 15 | 47 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 19 | 0.1 |
| RB | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 16 | 0.1 |
| RBO | no projected volume | ||||||
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRLP | 6.3(5) | 4.0(1) | 67(15) | 0.4(0) |
| WR | 2.4 | 1.3 | 31 | 0.2 |
| WRFP | 5.4(6) | 3.6(4) | 27(37) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 3.8(4) | 2.2(4) | 20(69) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 5.4(3) | 3.6(1) | 30(9) | 0.2(0) |
CLE offenserank of 32BAL defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 60.2: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
CLE offenserank of 32BAL defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.90: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
CLE offenserank of 32BAL defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.94: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 64%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 7.5%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.5%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.