The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:56 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 12:06 PM Love carves up a patched Dallas secondary. The Cowboys answer at the goal line. script partly held 5 hit7 missed projection C · 57 open
A near pick'em with a fat total: Green Bay should move it at will on a Dallas defense with no pass rush, while Dallas's yards come harder than its touchdowns.
Both offenses should move: Dallas against the league's most generous field defense, Green Bay against a Dallas unit last in EPA allowed with no pass rush. The difference is where the yards convert — Green Bay holds between the 20s and folds inside them, so Dallas's drives should be longer in yards and still end in points, while Green Bay scores more cheaply. Expect Dallas to lean on the run more than its season pass rate suggests, because Green Bay's interior line is down to backups. Both defenses are bottom-two in accepted flags, which extends drives on each side and pushes the play count past the raw tempo numbers.
Green Bay 23, Dallas 13: the Packers covered as 1.5-point home dogs and the 53.5 total died by 17.5 points, because Dallas moved the ball for 77 plays and gave three scoring-position possessions back (two Prescott interceptions inside the GB 20, two turnovers on downs) while Green Bay turned five explosive throws and a 37-yard DPI into a 17-0 halftime lead.
The plan's picture of Green Bay was broadly right and its picture of Dallas was wrong in the way that mattered. It correctly identified that GB has to throw, that Golden is the target-floor play with Reed and Moore out, and that Dallas can't pressure — GB hit five explosives and led wire-to-wire. What it missed was the premise underneath every Dallas call: that a pick'em game would stay close enough for Dallas to run at the gutted GB interior. Dallas was down 7-0 at 4:46 of the first and 17-0 at the half, so the 'grind' script never existed, which is why five of the seven misses were volume calls on the wrong side of a chase. The one Dallas lesson that is read, not bounce, is that this offense abandons the run instantly; the specific misses on Lamb/Pickens/Flournoy were all one mechanism firing at once.
The script: The game followed the plan's favorite_path almost literally — Green Bay hit three-plus explosive throws over a Dallas secondary (Watson 27 and 28, Golden 37 and 21 and 21), built a 17-0 lead by halftime, and shortened the game with a 15-play/8:17 field-goal drive and a 30:07 time of possession. But two pieces of the stated mechanism broke: 'protects Love' did not happen (3 sacks, 8 QB hits, 18.2% pressure, including Clark's 10-yard sack at the GB 4), and the lead did not turn Lloyd into a checkdown outlet — Strong took that job (6 targets) and GB's pass rate while leading was 60.3%, with a HIGHER second-half rate (66.7%). Checks confirm the two tempo/lean reads failed: pace was fast, not average (140 plays vs 121.5), Dallas's lean was pass at 78.6% against a called 'balanced', and Green Bay's was balanced at 62.9% against a called 'pass'.
Expected: Around 32-35 attempts at a pass rate below their 64.9% season mark, 18-22 carries, and most of the point production from red-zone trips rather than big passing lines. Williams gets the short-yardage work at a 74-85% snap share.
Happened: Expected 32-35 attempts below a 64.9% pass rate with 18-22 carries and points from red-zone trips; got 54 attempts at 72.7%, 15 carries, and 13 points on 4 trips with two giveaways short of them. Williams's 73.1% snap share was just under the 74-85% band.
Expected: 30-34 attempts at a pass rate near 60%, two touchdown throws, and a committee backfield in which Lloyd's value comes through the air if Green Bay leads. Golden and Watson should split 14-18 targets.
Happened: Volume and distribution were close — 41 attempts at 62.9% pass, Golden and Watson 21 combined targets (called 14-18, high side) — but the two touchdown throws became one, and Lloyd's air value never materialized (1 target, Strong took 6).
Both offenses should move: Dallas against the league's most generous field defense, Green Bay against a Dallas unit last in EPA allowed with no pass rush. The difference is where the yards convert — Green Bay holds between the 20s and folds inside them, so Dallas's drives should be longer in yards and still end in points, while Green Bay scores more cheaply. Expect Dallas to lean on the run more than its season pass rate suggests, because Green Bay's interior line is down to backups. Both defenses are bottom-two in accepted flags, which extends drives on each side and pushes the play count past the raw tempo numbers.
Green Bay protects Love, hits two or three explosive throws over a Dallas secondary missing Durant and leaning on a 9th-percentile corner in Steward, and builds a lead that turns Lloyd into a checkdown outlet and shortens the second half. Final shape: 30-24 Packers with Love at two scores through the air.
Dallas runs at the missing interior linemen, keeps the game to a possession, converts three or four red-zone trips into touchdowns against a defense 29th at its own 20, and wins the fourth quarter with Prescott on short throws. Final shape: 27-26 Cowboys with modest passing yardage and three Dallas touchdown drives.
The read
This is a shootout with asymmetric shapes. Dallas's defense is last in EPA allowed, last in field EPA allowed (between the 20s), 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game and 29th in pressure generated — with Overshown out a fifth straight week and Durant out, Porter questionable. Green Bay gets the cleanest pocket and the softest field of any week this season, and Love has thrown exactly two touchdowns in all five games. Green Bay's own defense is the mirror image: 5th in field EPA allowed and 5th in passing yards allowed per game, but 29th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (0.786) and 32nd in red-zone EPA. Dallas should find the yards slow and the trips profitable.
Why
The split at the 20 carries this plan. Dallas's passing yardage is the half Green Bay actually defends (6.35 yards per attempt allowed, 8th), which argues down on Prescott's yardage and on the receiving lines beneath him — and Dallas no longer needs 42 throws, because Green Bay's interior line is gutted (Hargrave to IR, Ford to IR, Campbell questionable, Wyatt limited). That is the same hole Atlanta ran through for 242 in week 3. Once Dallas reaches the 20, Green Bay's finishing rank hands the points over, and Javonte Williams has scored in four of five games at a 74-85% snap share.
Green Bay's path is simpler: Dallas has allowed four or more explosive passes in four straight weeks and generated almost no pressure in any of them. Golden and Watson have held 7-12 and 8-11 target weeks with Reed and Moore both on IR; the WR3 job falls to a just-activated Savion Williams.
What would change it
Cisse's hip (Packers CB1, every snap last week) and Porter's ankle for Dallas — both decide how clean each passing game is. Green Bay leading comfortably is the known trap: our week-4 review showed this offense runs at 47% when it's ahead, which kills Love's volume. And if Dallas trails by two scores again, its carries collapse toward the teens as they did against Tampa.
A pass-first offense that has moved the ball every week (0.104 field EPA per play) and finished at the highest rate in this dossier — 78.9% of red-zone trips end in touchdowns. The run game is 3.81 yards a carry but its rush EPA has turned positive the last two weeks (+0.05, +0.096).
Prescott's accuracy and chunk plays to Lamb and Pickens between the 20s, then Javonte Williams on the goal line — he has scored in four of five games, including three from inside the 10 at Houston.
A defense that can hold up between the 20s and keep the drives long; and their own script discipline — against Tampa they ran 13 times all night and the yardage turned into 16 points on two red-zone trips plus two Prescott interceptions in scoring range.
Green Bay is the one real pass defense Dallas has met: 8th in yards per attempt allowed, 5th in passing yards per game, 5th in field EPA allowed. What it cannot do is hold at its own 20 (29th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed, 32nd in red-zone EPA) or stop the run with Hargrave and Ford gone — Atlanta put 242 on the ground through that same interior in week 3.
Lamb (thigh) practiced in full and Jon Machota reported Thursday he is expected to play without limitations after the 57% snap share against Tampa — the single biggest usage question on this side. Drew Shelton is out but played one snap. On the defense Dallas faces: Hargrave (IR), Ford (IR) and Campbell (questionable) thin the interior; Banks and Monk are questionable on Green Bay's own line but that is the other offense.
Around 32-35 attempts at a pass rate below their 64.9% season mark, 18-22 carries, and most of the point production from red-zone trips rather than big passing lines. Williams gets the short-yardage work at a 74-85% snap share.
A boom-bust passing team: 7.61 yards per attempt with a 60.5% completion rate, 2.6 pre-snap flags a game and the league's worst yards-before-contact on the ground (1.84). Love has thrown exactly two touchdowns in every game this season.
Explosive throws to Watson and Golden — six 20-plus passes against Chicago in week 5 — plus Kraft and Lloyd underneath, and short-yardage packages built around Kraft.
Pressure. Four sacks and 32.6% pressure in week 1 wrecked the whole offense; three sacks in week 2 did the same. They also beat themselves pre-snap and have stalled in the red zone all year (0.538 touchdown rate, -0.171 EPA inside the 20).
Dallas cannot pressure anyone — 29th in pressure generated, zero sacks in two of five games — and is 32nd in pass EPA allowed with four or more explosive passes conceded in four straight weeks. Overshown's absence leaves a linebacker level rated 45th and 26th percentile, which is where Kraft and the backs live. Dallas does defend the red zone at a roughly normal clip, so the finishing problem does not fully go away.
Reed (IR) and Moore (IR, Rotowire Saturday) are gone; Savion Williams was activated Saturday and is questionable, so WR3 snaps are unsettled behind Watson and Golden. Banks (knee/toe) and Monk (quad) were limited all week and are questionable — Tomlinson starts if Banks sits, which tempers confidence on protection and run efficiency even though it is not a line the model prices. Dallas's Durant is out and Porter is questionable but on track to play per Jeremy Fowler Sunday morning.
30-34 attempts at a pass rate near 60%, two touchdown throws, and a committee backfield in which Lloyd's value comes through the air if Green Bay leads. Golden and Watson should split 14-18 targets.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: The mechanism half-showed: Love got 276 yards and five 20+ throws against no real pass rush from four, but GB reached the red zone only four times and Smack kicked three field goals; 1 pass TD on 41 attempts.
He has thrown exactly two touchdowns in every game this season, and this is the weakest pass defense he has faced — no rush, a secondary down two corners' worth of bodies.
Love 2 pass TDs in each of weeks 1-5; DAL allows 0.371 pass EPA per dropback and 8.28 Y/A, with 0 sacks generated in two games and a 10.9% pressure rate.
vs #32 pass EPA allowed; engine 2.13 is above the line and the market prices the over near 63% — the mechanism is the five-for-five consistency, not the gap. pass_tds calls are 8-of-13 this season.
In the game: Lloyd was not the back — 8 carries for 10 yards with 2 stuffs and 1 target on a 40% snap share, while Strong played 54.7% with 11 carries and 6 targets. The role premise, not the script, failed.
Both halves of his line point up: Dallas is last in rushing yards allowed per game, and if Green Bay protects a lead he becomes the checkdown outlet, which is how he got his best game.
Week 4: 7 carries, 5 catches on 5 targets, 49 combined at a 55% snap share; week 5: 10 carries, 2 TDs. DAL allows 5.10 YPC and 168.4 rush yards per game.
vs #27 rush EPA allowed (#32 rush yards per game); engine 68.2 is above the line while the market sits near 49% — the receiving half is what the market is discounting.
In the game: Exactly the stated mechanism: Williams on the goal line, 1-yard TD up the middle at Q3 9:24 on Dallas's only sustained scoring drive, from an 11-carry, 73.1%-snap workload.
He owns the goal line at a near-80% snap share for an offense that finishes nearly four of five trips, and Green Bay is one of the softest defenses in the league once you reach its 20.
TDs in weeks 1, 3, 4 (three) and 5; DAL converts 78.9% of red-zone trips, GB allows 78.6% (29th) with 0.456 red-zone EPA allowed (32nd).
vs #16 EPA allowed; the market already prices him near 64% and the engine at 54% — this call rests on the finishing half of the split, not on his yardage.
In the game: The vertical role arrived as described — 8 targets, 145 air yards, 27- and 28-yard chunks over the Dallas secondary — the touchdown simply went to Golden on a 9-yard slant (Q1 4:46). Mechanism right, outcome not.
He is the vertical scorer on an offense that has to throw to move, against a defense that has given up chunk plays over the top four straight weeks and cannot get home with four.
5 receiving TDs in 5 games (2 vs MIN, 1 NYJ, 1 ATL, 2 CHI) on 7.3 projected targets; DAL has allowed 4+ explosive passes in weeks 2-5 and 8 at Houston.
vs #32 EPA allowed; engine gives him 0.72 scores against a market price near 43% — the clearest engine-market gap on the slate, and anytime_td calls are 8-of-12 this season.
In the game: 52.2% air-yard share on 13 targets for 104 yards with Reed and Moore out, exactly the target-floor argument; 203 air yards led both teams by a wide margin.
With Reed and Moore both on injured reserve and the third receiver only activated Saturday, his target floor is the highest on the team in a game Green Bay has to throw to win.
7, 12, 12, 6, 12 targets in five weeks at a 77-88% snap share; 123 yards on 7 targets vs CHI in week 5.
vs #32 pass EPA allowed; engine 64.1 sits right on the line and the market has the over near 53% — the roster thinning behind him is what neither number has absorbed.
In the game: The 'one-score script keeps Dallas's carries where they were' premise never materialized — Dallas trailed on 71 of 77 snaps and gave him 11 carries for 41 at 3.7 ypc.
Green Bay's interior line lost two bodies to injured reserve this week, the same hole Atlanta ran through for a 242-yard afternoon, and a one-score script keeps Dallas's carries where they were in September.
GB allowed 5.9 YPC and 5 explosive runs to ATL in week 3 with that front thinned; Hargrave and Ford both to IR Saturday, Campbell questionable, Wyatt limited. Williams: 19, 19, 12 carries the last three weeks.
vs #27 rush EPA allowed; engine 60.7 is under the line and the market has the over near 47% — our rule that projections under-respond to run-defense quality cuts in his favor here, but the carries only arrive if Dallas stays within a score.
In the game: The call was built on the absence of a chase script; Dallas chased from the first quarter and Lamb saw 18 targets (41% air-yard share) for 9 catches. The volume mechanism the plan dismissed is precisely what happened.
His line is priced off the Houston game, where he drew more than twenty looks in a blowout chase. Without that script, and against the stingiest coverage he has seen, the catch count comes back down.
5, 8, 7, 17, 2 receptions; targets of 8, 9, 8, 21, 5. Engine projects 7.1 targets and 4.9 catches.
vs #10 pass EPA allowed (#14 in WR production allowed); the engine is nearly two catches under the line and the market has the over at 47%. Our week-4 and week-5 reviews both lost reception calls on this player in the other direction — this is the fade of that same volatility.
In the game: The under hit at 258, but for none of the stated reasons: Prescott threw 54 times, not fewer, and Dallas ran 15 times, not more. The number was held down by a 6.9 aDOT and -3.1 cpoe (4.8 Y/A), i.e. depth and coverage.
His last three big numbers all came from 40-plus attempt chase scripts. This is a near pick'em against the one secondary that has actually held people down, and Dallas finally has a run matchup worth using.
276, 335, 316 came on 40, 45 and 42 attempts; GB allows 6.35 Y/A (8th) and 199.4 passing yards per game (5th). Engine projects 33.6 attempts.
vs #10 pass EPA allowed; engine 231.5 sits far under the line while the market prices the over at a coin flip. Note our record on unders against top-10 defenses is 26-of-60 — this is a volume argument, not just a rank argument.
In the game: Ferguson stayed a low-volume, short-area piece — 3 targets, 2-13, 53.8% snaps — even in a 54-attempt game, and Spann-Ford out-targeted him 5 to 3.
His value this season is short touchdowns, not yardage, and he runs into the one position matchup Green Bay genuinely wins.
6, 43, 23, 11, 19 receiving yards; GB is 8th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends at 9.6 per game.
vs #10 pass EPA allowed; engine 13.6 is eleven yards under the line while the market sits near even — the one position where a stingy defense rank carries real weight.
In the game: Lamb being healthy did not suppress him; Pickens got 11 targets and 115 air yards in the chase and cleared at 73, including a 21-yard deep ball at Q4 1:54.
His two big games came with the alpha receiver hurt or absent from the field. Lamb is back to full practice, and Green Bay is the first defense this year that takes the field yards away.
28, 40, 82, 75, 130 — the 130 came with Lamb at a 57% snap share; GB allows 199.4 passing yards per game, 5th.
vs #10 pass EPA allowed; engine 57.1 is twelve under the line and the market has the over at 49%, so this is a small edge resting on Lamb's return to full snaps.
In the game: The committee-squeeze read was right to the snap: Johnson played 5.3% of snaps, took one carry for -2, and was behind both Strong and Lloyd.
His snap share has been falling inside a three-way committee, and a fourth back took carries and targets last week. The volume to clear this number is not his.
Snap shares 27%, 36%, 28%, 15%; 32, 6, 42, 26 rushing yards. Strong took 5 carries and 4 targets in week 5.
vs #27 rush EPA allowed — soft, which is why this is a volume call and not an efficiency one; no exchange price exists, so it is read against the engine's 48.6.
In the game: The premise was 'Dallas throws less than it has all season'; Dallas threw more than it has all season, and Flournoy ran 87.2% of snaps for 9 targets, 7-40 and the late touchdown.
His projection is inflated by one long catch; as the third or fourth option in a game where Dallas throws less than it has all season, the floor games are the norm.
22, 23, 22, 37, 90 — three of five under this number; 4.4 projected targets at a 66-76% snap share.
vs #10 pass EPA allowed; this one disagrees with both sides — the engine has him at 34.5 and the market prices the over near 59%, both carried by the single 90-yard week.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: Dallas runs at the two missing interior linemen, keeps the game close, and converts trips into touchdowns against a defense that folds at its 20. Every carry Williams takes is an attempt Prescott does not.
Green Bay has no run game, so the scoring is through the air against the league's worst pass-EPA defense with no pressure. Watson's scores and Golden's yardage are the two ways Love's touchdowns arrive.
If Dallas is not chasing, there is no 40-attempt game to split, and Green Bay's strength is precisely the field between the 20s. All three lines are priced off chase-script weeks.
grade · 57
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.0 | 23 | -3 | |
| Pass yds | 239.5 | 276.0 | +36.5 | |
| Rush yds | 110.3 | 57.0 | -53.3 | |
| Pass att | 31.9 | 41 | +9.1 | |
| Carries | 26.5 | 26 | -0.5 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.5 | 13 | -14.5 | |
| Pass yds | 231.5 | 258.0 | +26.5 | |
| Rush yds | 105.9 | 48.0 | -57.9 | |
| Pass att | 33.6 | 54 | +20.4 | |
| Carries | 26.6 | 15 | -11.6 |
The computed grade is C (0.571), and the split tells the story: player lines scored 0.767, team lines 0.524, market calls 0.333 (only the Under cashed). The team misses are almost entirely volume-and-script: the model built 62.1 Dallas plays at a 57.2% blended pass rate and got 77 plays at 72.7% pass with 15 carries, because Dallas trailed on 71 of 77 snaps from 4:46 of the first quarter onward. The points miss (27.5 projected, 13 actual) is not a yardage miss — Dallas got 258 passing yards and four red-zone trips — it is a finishing and turnover miss: 2 INTs at the GB 3 and GB 18, plus 0-for-2 on the two fourth downs inside the Green Bay 50 in the second half. Green Bay's side graded well on points (26 proj / 23) and passing (239.5 / 276) and badly on the ground (110.3 / 57), which was the most predictable miss in the dossier: GB entered at 3.05 yards per carry with the worst YBC figure in the file.
Pattern: Five weeks in, Dallas is a team that gives up the field — explosive passes every week and chunk runs against the front — and whose own offense produces yardage without converting it when it falls behind. The defense is not actually bad at its own 20 (GB got 2 FGs on 4 trips here; 'red zone defense' tagged weeks 1 and 5), which is why opponents' scores come from drive length and explosives rather than short fields.
This week: Green Bay executed exactly half the blueprint. It had the passing efficiency (7.611 season Y/A, 8.279 allowed by Dallas) and hit five explosives; it had no access to the run half — 26 carries for 57 yards, 0.4 ypc up the middle, one 10+ run, which was Love's own scramble-ish keeper. The Dallas run-defense weakness went unexploited because Green Bay is the one offense in the file that cannot run.
What an opponent needs: To cash the whole thing: an offense with aDOT near 9+ and a willing deep thrower (DAL allowed 4/11 deep for 113 here), plus either an above-league explosive-run rate or a pass rush of its own — Dallas's giveaways came under 12.5% hit-or-sack pressure, so the picks were coverage (3 DBs with PDs, Cisse and E.Williams with INTs), not heat.
Pattern: Green Bay wins by throwing — explosives and third downs (11-of-19 here, breaking its own 3-week third-down failure tag) — and loses when the passing game gets interrupted, because there is no ground floor underneath it and the red zone turns drives into three points. Its defense's real hole is the run, not the pass: it held Prescott to 4.8 yards per attempt on 54 throws.
This week: Dallas never tried the run half of the blueprint — 15 carries, no explosive runs — and the pass half ran straight into Green Bay's strength. Dallas's red-zone and third-down work (5-of-15) was worse than Green Bay's, so the 'trips become field goals' weakness never mattered. The only piece Dallas cashed was penalty yards, and those were roughing calls in the fourth quarter, not a repeatable mechanism.
What an opponent needs: To beat this defense you need above-league rush EPA and explosive-run rate (Atlanta's week-3 profile), or the patience to stay under 60% pass while leading. To beat the offense you need a front that generates pressure with four — Minnesota's 32.6% and Dallas's 3 sacks here both came without heavy blitzing (327 blitz rate charted, 4.41 average rushers).
A gutted-interior-OL angle only pays if the script lets the opponent run. Dallas faced a Green Bay front missing Hargrave and Ford and ran 15 times for 48 yards because it trailed from 4:46 of the first quarter. Require a projected game inside a field goal before buying RB rush overs built on OL injuries.
Trigger: Pregame spread inside 3 AND the team's trailing pass rate above 72% in any prior week.
Target explosions on a short-aDOT alpha are not yardage. Lamb drew 18 targets and caught 9 for 70 (-14.28 EPA on his targets, two of them intercepted); his receiving-yards projection of 61.6 was nearly perfect while his reception and target lines were blown out.
Trigger: Team aDOT under 7.0 with a chase script: buy receptions/targets, fade yards-per-target.
Fast pace with bad finishing is an Under, not an Over. 140 combined plays (league pair 121.5) produced 36 points because of three field goals, three interceptions and two turnovers on downs. Check both red-zone TD rates before letting play volume drive a total.
Trigger: Both offenses under a 0.60 red-zone TD rate entering, or one offense below 3.2 ypc — volume stops converting.
Pre-game RB committee splits in Green Bay are unusable. Strong (projected 1.4 carries, 1.3 targets) led the backfield with 11 carries and 6 targets; Lloyd got 8 for 10; Johnson got one carry for -2. Wait for inactives or skip the backfield entirely.
Trigger: Three or more backs with projected carries between 1 and 10 on the same team.
Penalty-yardage spikes are mostly not signal. Dallas's 51 drawn yards came from three fourth-quarter roughing-the-passer calls on throwaway drives; only Green Bay's pre-snap count (3 here, 2.6 per game season) is the kind of flag that persists.
Trigger: Separate pre-snap flags from roughing/DPI before pricing a 'penalty-prone' team.
The short version
Green Bay 23, Dallas 13: the home underdog covered a 1.5-point line and a 53.5 total finished 17.5 points short. Dallas ran 77 plays, threw 54 times and generated 258 passing yards, and still scored 13 — because the three possessions that reached Green Bay territory in the first half ended at the GB 3, the GB 18 and the half, and the two that reached it in the second half ended on downs. Green Bay, an offense that cannot run a step (26 carries, 57 yards, 0.4 ypc up the middle), scored on explosives and field goals and never trailed.
How it unfolded
The first two drives set the terms. Dallas went six plays for 19 and punted; Green Bay went 15 plays and 105 yards, converting 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-13 (Watson, 27 yards, +3.47 EPA), 3rd-and-13 again and 3rd-and-6 for Golden's 9-yard touchdown at 4:46. Dallas got one gift — Winters picked Love at the GB 42 at 1:53, a return touchdown wiped out on review — and turned a start at the opponent's 42 into Prescott's interception at the GB 3 (Q2 14:23, -4.30 EPA). Green Bay then burned 8:17 off the clock for a 25-yard field goal, and after a third Dallas drive died on Cisse's pick at the GB 18 (Q2 2:00, -3.96), Love worked 39 yards in 1:27 — 37 of them on a pass-interference flag against Porter on an incompletion — and sneaked it in at 0:25. 17-0, and Green Bay's win probability never dipped below 37.8% all night.
The second half was Dallas doing enough to stay on the field and not enough to score. A 4th-and-2 conversion to Lamb for 17 (+4.00) produced the only real touchdown drive; Green Bay answered with its own 4th-and-3 conversion to Kraft (+3.57) and a 44-yard field goal. From there Dallas went 0-for-2 on fourth downs — midfield at Q4 13:33, and 4th-and-11 at the GB 14 at 5:05 after an 18-play, 5:06 march that gained 43 yards. The 6-yard touchdown to Flournoy with 52 seconds left was the 13th point.
Why the game diverged from the projection
The grade is a C for a specific reason: the player distribution was fine (0.767) and the team volume was wrong (0.524). The engine blended Dallas to 62 plays at a 57.2% pass rate and got 77 at 72.7%, with 15 carries against a 26.6 projection — all of it downstream of trailing on 71 of 77 snaps. That isn't purely noise: the week-5 'abandoned the run' tag says this team dumps the ground game the moment it's behind, and the trailing pass rate (74.6%) matched that tag almost exactly.
The points miss is a different animal. Dallas didn't fail to move — 258 passing yards, four red-zone trips — it failed to finish and it gave the ball away twice in scoring position under a 12.5% pressure rate. That is coverage, not pass rush: Cisse, Evan Williams and Bullard combined for six pass breakups and two picks, and Prescott's -3.1 cpoe on a 6.9 aDOT is a quarterback throwing short into a defense that was comfortable. Green Bay's rushing miss (110.3 projected, 57 actual) was the cleanest signal in the file: a 3.05-ypc team met its own ceiling again.
The plan against the game
The plan read Green Bay correctly and Dallas backwards. It saw the explosive-pass path over a secondary with no rush in front of it, and it named Golden as the target-floor play with Reed and Moore out — 13 targets, 104 yards, 52% of the air yards. What it could not have from the box score was a Dallas offense that would throw 54 times in a game it was supposed to grind, and five of its seven misses were volume calls priced on the absence of a chase script that arrived at 4:46 of the first quarter. The Prescott under cashed anyway, on depth and completion rate rather than on carries, and the Lloyd call failed for a reason nothing in the projection anticipated: Pierre Strong took the backfield.
Player by player
Lamb's 18 targets against a 7.1 projection is the headline, but his 70 receiving yards against 61.6 is the lesson — the targets went up 150% and the yards went up 14%, because his average target was short and two of them were intercepted (-14.28 EPA across his looks). Pickens cleared 69.5 at 73 on 11 targets, Flournoy went 7-40 and the late score on 87.2% of snaps, Spann-Ford out-targeted Ferguson 5-3. On the other side, Golden and Watson combined for 21 targets and 348 air yards, Kraft hit 37 yards on the number, and the backfield was Strong's: 11 carries, 6 targets, 54.7% of snaps against Lloyd's 40% and Johnson's single carry for -2 yards. Savion Williams, activated Saturday and unprojected, played 53% of snaps for 4-32 and two carries.
The defenses
Dallas's front actually showed up more than its inputs suggested — three sacks on Love (Quinnen Williams, Garcia, Clark's 10-yarder at the GB 4) and eight QB hits, an 18.2% pressure rate against a 3.4% opponent sack-rate input. What it could not do, again, was keep the top on: five 20+ passes, 4-of-11 deep for 113. Green Bay's defense did the opposite — no takeaway-free bend, just 4.8 yards per attempt allowed on 54 throws, six breakups, two picks, and a red zone that gave up two touchdowns but took the ball twice before Dallas got there. Charting is formation-only this season: Dallas faced a 35.5% blitz rate and 4.53 rushers, Green Bay 32.7% and 4.41 — neither defense needed exotic pressure.
What the model should take from this
Three things. First, volume projections on Dallas should be conditioned on the first-quarter scoreboard, not on the pregame spread; this offense's play count and pass rate swing 15 points on game state. Second, Green Bay's rushing inputs are not a matchup variable — 3.05 ypc entering, 2.19 here, worst YBC in the file — so a Packers rush projection near 110 yards should be shaded down against anyone. Third, red-zone and takeaway variance did the scoring work here: 140 combined plays produced 36 points. When both offenses carry sub-0.60 red-zone finishing and one defense forces picks at a 4.5% clip, pace is an argument for the under, not the over.
Cowboys offenseagainst thePackers defense
Projected DAL offense output — equivalently, what the GB defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 17(11) | 61(41) | 0.7(1) | 3.3(2) | 2.5(2) | 15(9) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 5 | 23 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 11 | 0.1 |
| RB | 1(2) | 5(0) | 0.1(0) | 0.3(3) | 0.2(1) | -1(9) | 0(0) |
| RB | 1(0) | 4(0) | 0(0) | 0.2(3) | 0.1(3) | 0(9) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRFP | 7.1(18) | 4.9(9) | 62(70) | 0.5(0) |
| WR | 6.7(11) | 4.2(6) | 57(73) | 0.4(0) |
| WR | 4.4(9) | 3.0(7) | 34(40) | 0.2(1) |
| WR | 1.3(0) | 0.9(0) | 7(0) | 0.1(0) |
| WR | 1.4(0) | 0.7(0) | 6(0) | 0(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 3.6(3) | 2.6(2) | 14(13) | 0.1(0) |
| TE | 1.1(5) | 0.7(4) | 5(35) | 0(0) |
DAL offenserank of 32GB defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 62.1: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 67%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DAL offenserank of 32GB defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.99: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DAL offenserank of 32GB defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.89: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 66%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.4%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.7%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Packers offenseagainst theCowboys defense
Projected GB offense output — equivalently, what the DAL defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 10(8) | 41(10) | 0.3(0) | 2.8(1) | 2.0(0) | 14(0) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 8(1) | 38(-2) | 0.3(0) | 0.4(0) | 0.2(0) | 1(0) | 0(0) |
| RB | 4 | 24 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 8 | 0.1 |
| RB | 1(11) | 3(28) | 0(0) | 1.3(6) | 0.9(5) | 2(39) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 6.8(8) | 4.1(3) | 66(64) | 0.7(0) |
| WR | 7.1(13) | 4.5(6) | 61(104) | 0.6(1) |
| WR | 2.0(0) | 1.2(0) | 5(0) | 0(0) |
| WR | 1.1 | 0.8 | 3 | 0 |
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 5.3(8) | 3.8(5) | 35(37) | 0.3(0) |
GB offenserank of 32DAL defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 60.5: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 56%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 61%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
GB offenserank of 32DAL defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.16: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
GB offenserank of 32DAL defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.52: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 62%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 6.2%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 1.9%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.