The plan against the game · plan Sat Oct 17, 9:43 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 11:57 AM Houston's run game hits a brick wall and Stroud has to sling it all day script partly held 5 hit5 missed projection C · 56 open
Jacksonville's run-stuffing front forces Houston into dropbacks, and a Jaguars secondary that bleeds yardage turns a 42-point game into a passing-volume game.
Neither run game should function: Jacksonville is first in yards per carry allowed and Houston's ground game has been negative by EPA every week, while Houston's front is third in YPC allowed against a Jaguars team that wants to run. That pushes both offenses into dropbacks against two secondaries that concede yardage — Jacksonville 30th in passing yards allowed, Houston having allowed explosive passes in every game. Jacksonville's edge is finishing: it is third in red-zone TD rate allowed and holds at its own 20, so Houston's drives look like yardage and field goals. Expect a one-score game decided by whether Houston converts inside the 20 or Fairbairn does the scoring.
Houston won 34-31 as a 2.5-point dog and blew the 42.5 total out by 22.5 points: neither defense generated a single sack, both quarterbacks topped 300 yards, and the game turned on a Stroud red-zone interception that only bought Jacksonville a 60-yard field goal before Fairbairn's 49-yarder at 0:03.
The plan correctly identified the mechanism that produced the points — two secondaries that concede yardage and two fronts that could not get home — and it correctly picked the underdog's winners (Stroud over 300, Collins over, the explosive-play battle). What it got wrong was the premise underneath it: Jacksonville's run defense was not a wall (Houston 114 on 25, 4.56 YPC), so Houston never had to abandon the run, and the lead script ran the opposite way from the one the plan built its volume caps on. Both lean checks failed for the same reason — Houston ran because it led, Jacksonville threw because it trailed. The red-zone thesis (trips into kicks) failed on a small-sample basis the dossier itself warns about: Houston went 3-for-5 with touchdowns, not three field goals.
The script: The underdog path's conclusion came in almost word for word — Houston won the explosive-play battle (4 to Jacksonville's 6 but at 42, 50, 34 and 21 on 3rd-and-11) with Collins and a complementary receiver, Noel, doing the damage — but the stated cause did not: Houston never abandoned the run, finishing at a 0.576 pass rate (checks: lean called 'pass', actual 'run') with 25 carries for 114. Stroud threw 34, not the 36-plus the path required. Pace held exactly as called (127 plays against a 121.5 league baseline, 'average'), and the one-score finish arrived, but at 34-31 rather than the 24-20 the plan drew.
Expected: Pass rate at or above 62%, Stroud in the 34-38 attempt range, Marks taking 15-18 carries for very little, and the yardage going to Collins plus the complementary wideouts rather than the tight end.
Happened: Stroud's 34 attempts landed in the range and the yardage went to Collins (74) and Noel (107) rather than the tight end, as expected — but the pass rate came in at 55.6%, not 62%+, and Marks' 15 carries went for 56 yards with Houston totaling 114 at 4.56 YPC. The 'can't run' premise broke.
Expected: Roughly 27 carries at a modest clip, Lawrence in the 28-32 attempt range in a one-score game, with Strange working the vacated middle and Washington carrying the air-yards share.
Happened: Carries (27 for 106, 3.93) and the target tree (Washington 40.7% air-yards share, Strange 7 targets) matched; Lawrence's attempts blew past the 28-32 band to 41 because Jacksonville trailed wire to wire.
Neither run game should function: Jacksonville is first in yards per carry allowed and Houston's ground game has been negative by EPA every week, while Houston's front is third in YPC allowed against a Jaguars team that wants to run. That pushes both offenses into dropbacks against two secondaries that concede yardage — Jacksonville 30th in passing yards allowed, Houston having allowed explosive passes in every game. Jacksonville's edge is finishing: it is third in red-zone TD rate allowed and holds at its own 20, so Houston's drives look like yardage and field goals. Expect a one-score game decided by whether Houston converts inside the 20 or Fairbairn does the scoring.
Jacksonville wins the early-down downs with Tuten grinding for modest yards, Lawrence hits two or three chunk throws against a Houston secondary that has allowed explosives every week, and the defense turns Houston trips into field goals. 23-17 with the Jaguars holding the ball late.
Houston abandons the run early, Stroud throws 36-plus against the league's most generous yardage secondary with Jacksonville's corner room thinned, and the Texans win the explosive-play battle. 24-20 Houston, with Collins and the complementary receivers doing the damage.
The read
A near-pick'em in London between two teams built to cancel each other's run games. Jacksonville leads the league in yards per carry allowed (2.93) and rushing yards allowed (63.8/gm), and Houston's offense has posted negative rush EPA in every single week (-0.795, -0.226, -0.282, and 3.38 YPC for the season). Houston's lead back is now Woody Marks with David Montgomery ruled out Thursday (groin). That combination points one way: Houston throws, at or above its 62.6% season pass rate, and the yards land on the perimeter. On the other side, Jacksonville is a 52.1% pass-rate team that wants to run — into a Houston front that is 3rd in YPC allowed (3.32) and 3rd in rushing yards allowed. Expect a low-possession game where both offenses move the ball between the 20s and settle for kicks: Jacksonville is 3rd in red-zone TD rate allowed (41.7%) and 3rd in red-zone EPA allowed.
Why
The Jaguars give up the yardage they don't give up points on: 30th in passing yards allowed per game (277.2), 25th in yards per attempt (7.79), with Montaric Brown ruled out (Rotowire, Friday), Jourdan Lewis limited with a hamstring and Jarrian Jones grading in the 6th percentile of corners. That is Stroud's lane, and it is why Houston's receiving volume is the cleanest side of this card. The mirror image: Houston lost LB Kenneth Murray (82% of snaps, released) and safety Jalen Pitre is out, which is the middle-of-field hole Dallas exploited in Week 4 — Brenton Strange has drawn eight targets in each of the last two weeks.
What would change it
If Jacksonville scores early and plays with a lead, Lawrence's attempts collapse toward the low 20s, as they did against Cincinnati, and the Jaguars' receiving overs die. If Houston's protection cracks — Jacksonville's edges got four sacks of Lawrence's opposite number early this year — Stroud's yardage comes down with it.
A pass-first offense (62.6% pass rate, 7.54 Y/A) with no ground game: 3.38 YPC and negative rush EPA in all five weeks (-0.795 vs CIN, -0.226 at IND, -0.282 vs DAL). Field EPA +0.043 but red-zone EPA -0.246 and a 52.9% red-zone TD rate.
Explosive throws — eight 20-plus passes against Dallas in Week 4 at a 13.3 aDOT — plus long, penalty-prone drives that often end in Fairbairn field goals.
Pressure and its own flags: 5.4 accepted penalties per game and 1.8 pre-snap, four sacks against Cincinnati with 0-for-4 in the red zone, and three stuffed short-yardage runs that week. When the run is dead, everything is a dropback.
The worst possible run matchup — Jacksonville is 1st in YPC allowed (2.93) and 1st in rush yards allowed per game — but the best available passing one: Jaguars are 30th in pass yards allowed per game (277.2) and 25th in YPA, with 12th-ranked pass EPA that rests on takeaways and red-zone stinginess rather than on stopping the ball between the 20s.
David Montgomery out (groin, ruled out Thursday per Rotowire) hands the backfield to Woody Marks, who played 85% of snaps in Week 5; Tank Dell out, Jayden Higgins on IR. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in his second week with the club after the trade. On the Jaguars' side, CB Montaric Brown is out and Jourdan Lewis was limited with a hamstring, thinning an already weak corner room.
Pass rate at or above 62%, Stroud in the 34-38 attempt range, Marks taking 15-18 carries for very little, and the yardage going to Collins plus the complementary wideouts rather than the tight end.
A run-leaning, efficient offense: 52.1% pass rate, 8.21 Y/A, field EPA +0.108, and Tuten at 15-22 carries in every game. It shrinks when it leads — 23 attempts at Cincinnati, a 46.6% pass rate in that game.
Chunk throws off a short base (7.0 aDOT at CIN, +12.3 CPOE) plus red-zone rushing. Lawrence has 10 touchdown passes in five games on modest volume.
Its own protection and flags: four sacks and seven hits at Cincinnati, 5.2 penalties per game with 2.2 pre-snap, and a Week 5 red-zone collapse against Philadelphia (0 touchdowns on three trips, the 'yards without touchdowns' profile).
Houston's front is the problem — 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game and 3rd in YPC allowed (3.32), with Anderson (99th percentile among edges) and Hunter (93rd). What Houston does not do is cover the middle or prevent explosives: it has allowed 20-plus-yard passes in every game and gives up 256 pass yards per game (26th).
LT Anton Harrison is on IR after knee surgery (Rotowire, Tuesday) with Mekari and Mustipher also out — Walker Little slides in, and the model carries no line input, so treat it as pressure risk against Houston's two premium edges, not a number. Houston is without safety Jalen Pitre and released LB Kenneth Murray (82% of snaps in Week 4); To'oTo'o is questionable.
Roughly 27 carries at a modest clip, Lawrence in the 28-32 attempt range in a one-score game, with Strange working the vacated middle and Washington carrying the air-yards share.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Hit on the number (2 receptions) but not on the mechanism — the dropback pile never arrived for him; he saw 3 targets on 54% snaps and his third-most-valuable touch was being the intended man on the Q4 3:59 end-zone pick.
Same forced-dropback script, cheaper rung. He has caught at least three passes in every game of the season without once needing a big day.
Receptions of 3, 3, 3, 3, 4 across five weeks on target counts of 6, 9, 6, 5, 5.
vs #12 pass EPA allowed; the exchange prices this near a coin flip while the model has it heavily over. Risk is Marvin Harrison Jr.'s snap share in his second week here.
In the game: Miss at 10 yards on 3 targets, 14 air yards, 0 YAC. Houston threw 34 times, not 40, and the complementary volume went to Noel (4 targets, 107) and Harrison (4 targets) instead.
Houston can't run here, so the dropbacks pile up and the complementary receivers eat. He has cleared this modest number in every game, with five or more targets in four of five.
Targets of 6, 9, 6, 5, 5; receiving yards of 32, 37, 51, 46, 65 — all five above the quoted number. Jacksonville allows 277.2 pass yards per game.
vs #12 pass EPA allowed, but #30 in pass yards and #25 in YPA allowed — the rank rests on red-zone and takeaway work, not on stopping yardage. The model's own mean sits far above the exchange's number, and that price is thin.
In the game: Strange caught 5 of 7 for 44 working the middle exactly as described, on 76.1% of snaps — the one call whose reasoning and result matched cleanly, though the trailing script helped the volume.
Houston's middle of the field is thinned — a safety out and its most-used linebacker released — and that is exactly where this tight end lives on third down.
Eight targets in each of the last two weeks (7-95 vs CIN, 7-68 vs PHI) on 81-87% snap shares; HOU gave Lamb 21 targets underneath in Week 4 with its LB level short.
Team is JAX. vs #12 pass EPA allowed; Houston is 6th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, which is the one positional number that carries — hence medium, not high. Model's mean sits above the quoted number, the exchange's below it.
In the game: Hit big at 312, but on 34 attempts and 9.2 yards per attempt, not on forced volume: the 50 to Noel and 42 to Collins did the work while Houston ran 25 times for 114 against the defense that was supposed to make it throw.
The Jaguars take the run away better than anyone, which turns Houston's carries into throws. The same defense surrenders more passing yardage per game than any but one.
HOU 3.38 YPC and negative rush EPA every week; JAX allows 2.93 YPC (1st) and 277.2 pass yards (30th). Stroud: 38, 55, 27, 31, 34 attempts, 274/353/167/347/261 yards.
vs #12 pass EPA allowed; the yardage ranks (25th YPA, 30th yards) are the ones that decide this market. Caution: passing-yards calls are our weakest market this season at 45%, so this is medium, not high.
In the game: 74 yards clears, but on 5 targets, not the 35-plus-throw script — 73 of them air yards on the 42-yarder at Q1 6:50 and the 21-yard third-and-11 at Q4 7:46, plus 19 DPI yards drawn off Jar.Jones that never hit his line.
Undisputed alpha on an offense about to be forced into 35-plus throws, against a corner room missing one starter with another limited all week.
7-10 targets in all three games played: 75, 118, 56 yards. JAX: Montaric Brown out (Rotowire, Friday), Jourdan Lewis limited (hamstring), Jarrian Jones 6th percentile among corners. Collins' practice limitation is listed as rest, not injury.
vs #12 pass EPA allowed but #30 in pass yards allowed. The model's share model has him well under this number; the read is that his target count, not his efficiency, has been understated all year.
In the game: Miss: Schultz led Houston in targets with 6, catching 4 for 33, with Collins healthy and Harrison on the field. He was the designed outlet against a 41% blitz rate, not a four-target afterthought.
His one big game came with the alpha receiver out. With Collins healthy and another receiver added by trade, he is back to a four-target checkdown role against a defense stingy to tight ends.
Targets since Collins returned: 2, 4. Catches of 4, 12, 3, 2, 3 across the season; snap share 52% in Week 5. JAX is 7th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
vs #12 pass EPA allowed, #7 vs tight ends — the one positional allowance that carries predictive weight. Model's mean is under the quoted number while the exchange prices it near even.
In the game: Hit at 39 yards: 12 carries at 3.25 YPC, -1.10 rush EPA, no 10-plus run, and a rushing TD erased by Strange's hold at Q2 14:12. The carry share also leaked — Rodriguez took 11 for 55.
His carry count is safe; his yards are not. Houston's front is one of the three best at limiting yards per carry, and he has not exceeded this range in any game this season.
Rushing yards of 66, 65, 73, 73, 72 on 15-22 carries — never clear of a 73-yard ceiling. HOU allows 3.32 YPC (3rd) and 78.4 rush yards per game (3rd); JAX's own YBC/carry is 1.85 vs a 2.54 league mark.
vs #11 rush EPA allowed — mid band, where our unders have hit 60% this season. Labelled an efficiency call: the volume is the part that could beat it if Jacksonville leads late.
In the game: Miss at 81 scrimmage yards. The chase script the plan doubted never materialized (Houston led throughout) yet Marks still caught the 19-yarder on 3rd-and-2 at Q4 1:04, and the ground yards came because the run matchup read was wrong.
A back who inherits the job on a team whose run game has lost ground every week, running into the stingiest front in football per carry. The receiving work needs a chase script that a one-score game may not give.
HOU 3.38 YPC, rush EPA negative all five weeks; JAX allows 2.93 YPC and 63.8 rush yards per game, both 1st. Marks: 42, 8, 15, 22, 62 rushing yards; 1, 5, 1, 0, 4 catches.
vs #3 rush EPA allowed. Our Week 4 review of this offense concluded to fade Houston RB rushing overs until the unit posts positive rush EPA. Model's mean already sits well under the quoted number; unders vs top-10 defenses are our weakest bucket (43%), so this is medium.
In the game: Miss at 56 on 15 carries (3.73). The 'wall' gave up 4.56 YPC to Houston overall, with 65 yards on 11 carries to the left side. His efficiency was poor (-2.39 rush EPA) but the volume carried him over.
The lead job is his, but the carries come against a wall. Our models consistently give backs too much credit against elite run defenses, and this offense has never run well regardless of opponent.
HOU: zero 10-plus runs in three of five weeks, 3.38 YPC season. JAX allows a league-low 2.93 YPC on a 5-game sample. Marks has topped this number once all year.
vs #3 rush EPA allowed and #1 in YPC allowed. The model's mean is essentially at the quoted number, so the whole edge is the matchup plus the Week 4 lesson on this run game.
In the game: Miss, and in the state the plan ruled out: Stroud threw the pick while LEADING 31-28 at Q4 3:59 from the JAX 4, intended for Hutchinson — a red-zone throw, not chase-mode volume.
This is a fewer-picks call. He has not thrown one all season, and a one-score game means no late chase-mode volume spike — the situation that actually produces interceptions.
0 interceptions on 185 attempts across five games; JAX has generated takeaways but its pass EPA rank leans on red-zone defense. Spread is 2.5, so neither side projects to be throwing from two scores down.
vs #12 pass EPA allowed. The model's rate-based mean sits above the quoted rung; our own research says that number overstates 1-plus interceptions by three to four points because it over-projects attempts.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One mechanism drives all three: the league's best run defense kills the Texans' carries, the dropbacks climb, and the yardage flows to a secondary that gives up more than almost anyone.
Two of the three best fronts at limiting yards per carry meet two offenses whose yards-before-contact numbers are both below league average.
If the Jaguars can't get push on the ground against Houston's front, the answer is the short middle, where a missing safety and a released linebacker leave the tight end as the outlet.
grade · 56
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.0 | 34 | +14 | |
| Pass yds | 248.1 | 312.0 | +63.9 | |
| Rush yds | 84.9 | 114.0 | +29.1 | |
| Pass att | 33.8 | 34 | +0.2 | |
| Carries | 24.5 | 25 | +0.5 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.5 | 31 | +8.5 | |
| Pass yds | 231.5 | 306.0 | +74.5 | |
| Rush yds | 100.3 | 106.0 | +5.7 | |
| Pass att | 31.5 | 41 | +9.5 | |
| Carries | 26.3 | 27 | +0.7 |
Grade C (0.56), and the shape of the miss is clean: the engine nailed volume and missed efficiency entirely. HOU pass attempts (34 vs 33.8) and carries (25 vs 24.5) were essentially exact, JAX carries (27 vs 26.3) likewise, but both team totals blew out — HOU 34 on a projected 20, JAX 31 on 22.5 — because 65 points arrived on 127 plays with zero sacks between them. The sack projection (2.2 HOU, 2.4 JAX) and the implied pressure environment were the single biggest input failure: actual pressure rates were 5.7% (HOU) and 7.0% (JAX) against a 14.8–15.9% league figure, which let both offenses run 0.37 and 0.27 EPA per dropback. The one big volume miss, JAX's 41 attempts versus 31.5, is pure game state: Jacksonville ran 58 of its 69 plays trailing and never led for more than 47 seconds. The market score (0.333) reflects the obvious: side wrong, total wrong, only the spread call cashed by default.
Pattern: Houston's defense is a yardage sieve that survives on takeaways and red-zone stops (the wk1 and wk4 'bend don't break' / 'red zone defense' tags): it has allowed 20+ yard passes in six straight games, and its season is decided by whether the front generates pressure. The offense's own drive-killers — pre-snap flags and the occasional red-zone turnover — are the self-inflicted half.
This week: Jacksonville had exactly the profile (8.21 YPA entering, 0.108 field EPA/play) and executed it: 6 explosive passes, 0.268 EPA/dropback, 306 yards, four TDs — and still lost because Houston's own offense scored 34 and because Lawrence's goal-line INT cost a full drive.
What an opponent needs: A quarterback who can hold the ball (Houston's pressure rate collapses when the tackles hold up), a receiving back or tight end who wins YAC underneath, and at least two legitimate deep threats. An opponent with no vertical element gets bend-don't-break instead (TEN, wk5: one explosive pass, 3 points).
Pattern: Jacksonville's defensive reputation rests on takeaways and red-zone stinginess, not on stopping the ball: its field EPA allowed has been positive in two of five weeks and it does not pressure the quarterback without help. The offense wins when it stays on schedule and loses drives to holding and to short-field failures.
This week: Houston had the profile (7.54 YPA entering, 'own explosive passing' tagged in three of five weeks) and cashed it without needing to abandon the run — a cleaner version of the blueprint than the model expected, because the run game that was supposed to be dead produced 4.56 YPC.
What an opponent needs: A quarterback with time (JAX will not manufacture pressure on four), two receivers who can win downfield against a depleted corner room, and the discipline to take the free interference yards. A ball-control team without vertical shots gets the week-3 NE treatment instead.
When both defenses carry a 'no pass rush' tag or a sub-12% season pressure rate and both have allowed explosive passes in multiple weeks, a total in the low 40s is a gift. Here it was 42.5 against 65 actual with zero sacks in 78 dropbacks.
Trigger: Both teams' season pressure rate (sack-or-hit) at or below league and both tagged 'explosive passing' allowed in the season context.
Lawrence's attempt total is a pure script variable, not a projection: 23 attempts at Cincinnati with a lead, 41 here after trailing on 58 of 69 snaps. Bet his volume overs only when the game plan expects Jacksonville behind.
Trigger: JAX as a home favorite with a run lean in the engine inputs — fade the attempts; JAX trailing by a score or more at any point — the attempts spike to 40+.
Run-defense YPC ranks built on five opponents are not a wall. The engine blended 3.47 YPC for Houston against the 'best' front in football; Houston ran 4.56 and scored on a 25-yard run off left tackle. Don't shade an RB under on rank alone — check run-location splits and whether the defense has faced a gap-scheme team.
Trigger: An RB under priced primarily off an opponent's sub-3.2 YPC allowed, with fewer than six games of sample.
Red-zone TD-rate ranks are the least persistent input in the dossier. Jacksonville was sold as third in TDs allowed per trip; Houston went 3-for-5 and Jacksonville itself went 3-for-4 a week after going 0-for-3 against Philadelphia.
Trigger: Any total or team-total thesis whose main leg is 'this defense turns trips into field goals' — require field EPA allowed to agree before leaning on it.
A 1-4 record can hide a positive-EPA offense. Houston entered with four single-score losses, 0.043 field EPA/play and 'own explosive passing' tagged in three of five weeks; it was a live dog at +2.5 on the road at Wembley.
Trigger: Team with a losing record, positive season field EPA/play, and multiple losses by a score or less, priced as a short road dog.
The short version
Houston won 34-31 at Wembley as a 2.5-point underdog, and the 42.5 total was never in the conversation: 65 points, 127 plays, 618 passing yards between the two quarterbacks and not one sack in 78 dropbacks. The projection had 20-22.5 and a one-score grind; it got the volume almost exactly right (HOU 34 attempts and 25 carries against 33.8 and 24.5) and the efficiency almost entirely wrong. Houston never trailed by more than four, led for 2,699 of 3,600 seconds, survived its own goal-line interception with four minutes left, and won on Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yarder at 0:03 after Cam Little had tied it from 60.
How it unfolded
Jacksonville's first three possessions produced a punt, a failed fourth-and-3 at the Houston 37 (Q1 8:21, -2.35 EPA), and — after a 15-play, 69-yard, 6:55 march — a Trevor Lawrence interception at the goal line by Calen Bullock at Q2 13:24, the second-biggest swing of the day at -4.82 EPA. That is 25 plays and zero points from the team the market made favorite. Houston, meanwhile, needed five plays and 62 yards to score, Stroud's 42-yarder to Collins at Q1 6:50 doing most of it.
The second quarter turned into a shootout nobody projected: Tuten's 27-yard catch-and-run TD, a Fairbairn 25-yarder, Tuten again from two, then Houston's four-play, 51-yard answer in 47 seconds built on Noel's 50-yard catch down the middle — 17-14 at the break. Houston opened the third with an 11-play, 65-yard drive capped by Noel's 13-yard touchdown on third-and-10, and after Jacksonville cut it to three, the Texans drew 19 DPI yards from Jarrian Jones at Q3 1:02 and immediately ran Jawhar Jordan 25 yards off left tackle for the touchdown that made it 31-21.
Jacksonville got back within three on Travis Hunter's seven-yard score at Q4 11:30, Houston ate 7:33 off the clock on a 13-play drive, and then Stroud threw the game's biggest play backwards — an end-zone interception to Hunter from the four-yard line at Q4 3:59, -6.02 EPA and -0.241 WPA. Jacksonville moved 38 yards and kicked from 60. Houston answered with Marks' 19-yard catch on third-and-2 and the winning kick.
Why the game diverged from the projection
Two inputs failed. The first is pressure: the engine blended sack rates of 6.2% and 7.1% and projected better than two sacks a side. Actual pressure (sack or hit) came in at 5.7% for Houston's rush and 7.0% for Jacksonville's, roughly a third of the 15.9% league rate, and both quarterbacks played clean — Stroud at 0.373 EPA per dropback with 11.5 CPOE, Lawrence at 0.268 despite -5.0 CPOE because his receivers produced 153 yards after catch. The second is the run matchup. Jacksonville's 2.93 YPC allowed was the keystone of the pre-game read; Houston ran 25 times for 114 (4.56), with 65 of those yards on 11 left-side carries.
Jacksonville's one big volume miss — 41 attempts against 31.5 — is game state and nothing else: 58 of 69 snaps trailing, a 0.621 pass rate in that state. That is noise the model should not chase. Houston's point total is mixed: the yardage was earned, but 3 touchdowns on 5 red-zone trips against a defense the engine shrunk to .572 was the small-sample coin landing heads.
The plan against the game
The plan's headline mechanism — two yardage-conceding secondaries, neither front getting home — is exactly the game that was played, and its underdog path named the winners correctly down to "Collins and the complementary receivers." But it got there backwards. It assumed Jacksonville's front would dictate and Jacksonville would hold the lead; instead Houston scored first, ran the ball well, and threw only 34 times, which is why both lean checks failed in opposite directions and why the Marks unders and the Hutchinson yardage over all lost on the same broken premise. Pace was called perfectly.
Player by player
Noel is the headline and the caution: 4-for-4, 107 yards and a touchdown on 49% of snaps, with 61 air yards and 46 YAC. Two explosives on four targets is not a repeatable projection, but a 23.6% air-yards share at half the snaps is a role worth tracking. Collins remains the alpha without the target volume — 5 looks, 73 air yards, plus 19 DPI yards drawn that never appear in his line. Schultz led the team in targets with six, which is the direct refutation of the pre-game read on him. Hutchinson collapsed to three targets with Harrison Jr. drawing four on 19% of snaps.
For Jacksonville, the backfield split is the actionable item: Tuten 57.7% of snaps, Chris Rodriguez 29.6% and 11 carries for 55 — more productive per carry than the starter. Tuten's value was entirely receiving (4 catches, 48 yards, two touchdowns, -13 air yards). Washington carried 40.7% of the air yards for four catches on eleven targets; that is a volume play whose yardage lives or dies on deep completion rate.
The defenses
Charting here is box and blitz only — no coverage shells. Jacksonville blitzed 41% and rushed 4.59 on average without producing a hit that mattered; Travon Walker played 79% of snaps for nothing in the box score. Houston blitzed 37% at an average of 4.49 rushers and also recorded zero sacks. Both defenses defended the field badly (HOU allowed 0.192 EPA/play between the 20s, JAX 0.308) and neither got the compensating takeaway volume beyond one each. Houston's secondary has now allowed 20-plus-yard passes in six straight games; Jacksonville's corner room, missing Montaric Brown with Jaylon Jones limited, gave up two 40-plus completions and 36 DPI yards.
What the model should take from this
The engine's volume machinery is working. Its efficiency environment is not sensitive enough to pass-rush quality. Two teams with recurring "no pass rush" tags and recurring explosive-pass allowances met, and the blend still produced a 42.5-equivalent number. That is a total-side edge sitting in the season-context tags. Second, the red-zone constant did what the dossier says it does — nothing predictive — so the finishing swing should not be re-weighted off nine trips. Third, Houston's 62.6% season pass rate is a chase-game artifact; its leading-state rate is 52.6%, and that distinction should enter the lean before any Texans prop is written.
Texans offenseagainst theJaguars defense
Projected HOU offense output — equivalently, what the JAX defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 16(15) | 51(56) | 0.5(0) | 2.4(3) | 1.6(2) | 10(25) | 0.1(0) |
| RBO | no projected volume | ||||||
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRLP | 7.0(5) | 4.5(3) | 54(74) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 5.4(3) | 3.1(2) | 43(10) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 3.5(4) | 2.5(4) | 34(107) | 0.2(1) |
| WR | 3.9(3) | 2.6(2) | 28(16) | 0.1(0) |
| WR | 2.0(4) | 1.1(3) | 14(34) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TELP | 4.3(6) | 3.0(4) | 28(33) | 0.2(0) |
| TE | 2.6(2) | 1.8(2) | 8(7) | 0(2) |
HOU offenserank of 32JAX defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 60.6: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 59%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 54%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
HOU offenserank of 32JAX defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.47: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
HOU offenserank of 32JAX defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.35: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 64%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 6.2%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.3%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Jaguars offenseagainst theTexans defense
Projected JAX offense output — equivalently, what the HOU defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 16(12) | 63(39) | 0.5(0) | 2.4(4) | 1.7(4) | 15(48) | 0.1(2) |
| RB | 5(11) | 19(55) | 0.1(0) | 0.2(1) | 0.2(0) | 1(0) | 0(0) |
| RB | 1(0) | 5(0) | 0(0) | 0.6(0) | 0.4(0) | 0(0) | 0(0) |
| RB | 0(1) | 0(1) | 0(0) | 1.1(0) | 0.8(0) | 2(0) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 7.0(11) | 4.5(4) | 60(64) | 0.4(0) |
| WR | 4.7(10) | 3.2(5) | 42(83) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 2.9(0) | 1.9(0) | 23(0) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 3.5(2) | 2.2(0) | 19(0) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 6.3(7) | 4.6(5) | 40(44) | 0.4(0) |
| TELP | 1.6(2) | 1.1(2) | 8(8) | 0.1(1) |
JAX offenserank of 32HOU defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 60.3: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 56%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
JAX offenserank of 32HOU defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.82: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
JAX offenserank of 32HOU defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.35: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 66%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 7.1%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.2%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.