The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:32 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 10:56 AM Walker pounds a patchwork Charger front. Herbert's thinned receiver room can't answer. script partly held 8 hit2 missed projection B · 73 open
Kansas City takes an early lead and hands it to Kenneth Walker against a Charger interior missing bodies; the lever is whether Los Angeles will finally throw when it trails — five weeks say no.
Kansas City scores first or second and never gives the lead back, then leans on Kenneth Walker to bleed clock against a Charger interior that has been run through in consecutive weeks. Los Angeles moves the ball in bursts behind a patched line, stalls or gives it away, and settles for kicks against a defense that is 4th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed. The Chargers trail by two scores and still do not become pass-heavy — three straight weeks of running well below the expected rate when behind. Expect low play counts on both sides, a KC total built on a rushing touchdown or two plus field goals, and a Charger total that lands under its implied number if one drive ends in a takeaway.
Kansas City 22, Los Angeles 6: the Chiefs covered -7.5 and the game stayed 13.5 under the 41.5 total because the Chargers moved the ball to the 20 three times and scored zero touchdowns, while Kenneth Walker (19-128-2) turned a 150-yard ground game into the only touchdowns anyone scored.
The plan read the game's shape almost perfectly: KC in front from the first possession, Walker over 20 touches' worth of work with the touchdowns, Mahomes around 30 attempts at a tiny aDOT with Worthy as the one air-yards share, LAC moving the ball and kicking field goals against a defense that holds at its own 20, and the Charger drive that dies on a pick. Eight of ten calls hit, both of the thesis parlays that depended on the KC grind came in. Where it was wrong was its headline lever — it bet the Chargers would not chase, and they threw on 65.1% of snaps against a 52.0% season rate; that miss was harmless because the chase was all short throws (5.4 aDOT, -9.9 CPOE), which is why Herbert cleared 199.5 by four and a half yards. The other miss, Mitchell's receptions, was a role error rather than a script error: the outlet work went to Vidal and the just-activated Lambert-Smith.
The script: The favorite path read 'KC leads by 10 by the third quarter, Walker crosses 20 carries with a score, Mahomes throws around 30 times at a modest aDOT with Worthy as the only real air-yards share, and the Chargers' comeback dies on a sack or a pick' — KC led 19-3 at half, Walker had 19 carries and both touchdowns, Mahomes threw 30 at 3.6 aDOT with Worthy at a 25.2% air-yards share, and LAC's best drive died on Cochrane's interception at Q2 10:59. The mechanism that broke is the Charger lean: checks show LAC at a 65.1% pass rate against its own 52.0%, so 'still do not become pass-heavy' was wrong even as 'their total lands under its implied number' was right (6 points on 68 plays). Pace was called slow and came in average (120 plays vs a 121.5 league pair), and KC's called run lean graded balanced at 52.6% — a shade under its 53.0% season rate but inside the four-point band.
Expected: Pass rate at or below their 53% season mark, around 30 attempts, Walker near 20 carries plus goal-line work, Worthy as the concentrated air-yards share, Kelce and Gray underneath on modest volume, and a team total that arrives partly on the ground and partly through Butker.
Happened: 52.6% pass rate against a 53.0% season mark, 30 attempts, Walker 19 carries plus two scores including the goal-line one, Worthy the concentrated air-yards share (25.2%), Kelce and Gray on 5 and 3 targets, and the team total split between two rushing TDs and three Butker makes. The only overshoot was efficiency — 272 yards on a 3.6 aDOT with +9.4 CPOE.
Expected: Around 31 attempts at best, a 55% pass rate that falls short of what a two-score deficit should produce, Hampton leading a three-way committee with Mitchell taking the receiving back work, and the tight ends plus checkdowns absorbing targets if the wideouts are on pitch counts.
Happened: The 'yards that become field goals' half held exactly (3 RZ trips, 0 TDs, 2 FGs, no sacks expected but 4 taken). The volume half broke: 37 attempts not ~31, a 65.1% pass rate not 55%, Hampton at 7 carries on 50% of snaps rather than leading a committee, and Mitchell taking zero receiving-back work. The tight ends and checkdowns did absorb targets (Kolar 6, Gadsden 5).
Kansas City scores first or second and never gives the lead back, then leans on Kenneth Walker to bleed clock against a Charger interior that has been run through in consecutive weeks. Los Angeles moves the ball in bursts behind a patched line, stalls or gives it away, and settles for kicks against a defense that is 4th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed. The Chargers trail by two scores and still do not become pass-heavy — three straight weeks of running well below the expected rate when behind. Expect low play counts on both sides, a KC total built on a rushing touchdown or two plus field goals, and a Charger total that lands under its implied number if one drive ends in a takeaway.
KC leads by 10 by the third quarter, Walker crosses 20 carries with a score, Mahomes throws around 30 times at a modest aDOT with Worthy as the only real air-yards share, and the Chargers' comeback dies on a sack or a pick. Something like 27-16.
LAC uses the one thing KC gives away — flags and a pass rush that does not exist — to stay on schedule, Herbert finds McConkey and the tight ends underneath, and the Chargers win the turnover column for the first time all year. That is a 20-17 game decided inside the last five minutes.
The read
Kansas City by a touchdown-plus in a low-total, clock-chewing afternoon. The Chiefs have led almost wire-to-wire all season and their best play has been the run: 5.5 yards a carry with 4, 3, 3 and 5 explosive runs in four games, and +0.197 EPA per play between the 20s. Los Angeles is 0-5 with the opposite profile — -0.302 field EPA, a 10.9% sack rate allowed behind a line missing Slater, Alt, Penning, Pipkins, Biadasz and Awosika, and giveaways in all five games. The Chargers will move the ball in stretches and then hand a possession back; Kansas City needs five or six drives.
Why
The Chiefs' run game meets a Charger front whose low yards-per-carry number was earned against Arizona and Las Vegas and has since been gashed — 176 to Buffalo at 5.4, 138 to Seattle with 8.5 a pop on left-side carries — with Tomlinson and Caldwell both limited and Teair Tart rated in the bottom fifth of interior linemen. Derwin James (96% of snaps), Donte Jackson out and Rodney Shelley doubtful means the pass defense that ranks 8th in EPA allowed is not the unit that earned the rank. With Rashee Rice out and Tyquan Thornton on IR, Kansas City's throws concentrate: Worthy on the perimeter, Kelce and Gray inside, few of them.
For Los Angeles, the Chiefs' front does not get home (21st in pressure generated, zero sacks in three of four games), so Herbert should see a cleaner pocket than usual — but Kansas City holds at its own 20 (4th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed), which turns Charger yards into field goals. Kansas City is also 30th in flags and 31st in pre-snap flags, and Los Angeles draws DPI at better than twice the league rate: free first downs are the one thing that lengthens Charger drives.
What would change it
Snap counts on McConkey and Johnston, both just off the injury report with Harbaugh declining to commit (Rotowire, Friday). An early Charger takeaway flipping field position. Sneed's knee and Henley's knee designations. Every price here is Kalshi's, and its player markets are thin.
Explosive, low-volume scoring: +0.197 EPA per play between the 20s, 8.1 yards per attempt, 5.5 yards per carry with 3+ explosive runs in all four games, on 62.75 plays a game. Points come in chunks, not on 14-play drives.
Walker breaking the edge (76- and 22-yard touchdowns in week 4, a 60-yarder in week 1), deep shots off play-action, and a 62.5% red-zone touchdown rate that has sat at three-of-five most weeks.
Interior run stuffs (Miami held them to 2.8 a carry up the middle and stuffed a 4th-and-1), short-yardage failure, and their own flags — 7, 8, 8, 8 in four games. Their counting stats also collapse when the opponent owns the clock, as Miami and Las Vegas did with 73 and 80 plays.
Los Angeles generates real pressure (4th, 19.3%) with Mack and Tuipulotu and ranks 8th in pass EPA allowed, which argues against a big Mahomes day. But that secondary is without Derwin James and Donte Jackson with Shelley doubtful, and the run defense's good yards-per-carry number was built on Arizona and Las Vegas before Buffalo and Seattle ran for 176 and 138. The ground game is the clean edge.
Rice is out (did not practice all week, ruled out Friday by Rotowire/FantasyPros) and Thornton is on IR for 3-4 months, leaving Worthy, Royals and Cyrus Allen at receiver; Simmons was ruled out Friday after three limited practices, so the line is the same one that has played all year. Opposite: James out, Jackson out, Shelley doubtful, Henley and Caldwell and Tomlinson questionable.
Pass rate at or below their 53% season mark, around 30 attempts, Walker near 20 carries plus goal-line work, Worthy as the concentrated air-yards share, Kelce and Gray underneath on modest volume, and a team total that arrives partly on the ground and partly through Butker.
Yards in stretches, points rarely: -0.302 EPA per play between the 20s, 6.5 yards per attempt, 59% completions, a 10.9% sack rate and 21.9% pressure allowed, 4.4 flags a game with 2.4 of them pre-snap against a 1.55 league rate.
Short fields and a red zone that actually finishes — 66.7% touchdowns per trip, with Hampton and Vidal getting the goal-line work — plus drive-extending DPI (16.6 yards drawn a game, more than double league).
Themselves: 12 giveaways in five games, false starts inside the opponent 10 (two at the Buffalo 1 and 6 in week 3), and a line missing six contributors that has allowed 3+ sacks in four of five. The staff also will not pass when behind, so deficits do not close.
Kansas City's front is the softest Herbert has faced — 21st in pressure generated, zero sacks in three of four games — which should let the short game function. What Kansas City does take away is the finish: 4th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed and 1st in fantasy points allowed to receivers. Expect yards that become field goals.
Harris is out (hamstring), McConkey and Johnston are cleared but Harbaugh declined to commit to playing time (Rotowire, Friday), Lambert-Smith came off IR Saturday as questionable, and Ingold and Njoku are on IR. The line is without Slater, Alt, Penning, Pipkins, Biadasz and Awosika — not an input the model carries, but it is the reason the sack and pressure rates sit where they do, and it caps any efficiency read on this offense.
Around 31 attempts at best, a 55% pass rate that falls short of what a two-score deficit should produce, Hampton leading a three-way committee with Mitchell taking the receiving back work, and the tight ends plus checkdowns absorbing targets if the wideouts are on pitch counts.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Miss, and the mechanism never appeared: Mitchell played 25% of snaps for 1 target and 0 catches. LAC did trail and did check down (team aDOT 5.4), but the outlet role went to Vidal (4 targets, 3 catches, 22 YAC) and Hampton (4 catches).
He is the receiving back on a team that will trail and whose staff checks down rather than pushes it downfield, with Ingold on IR and the receiver room thinned by Harris's absence.
Targets of 3, 6 and 4 in weeks 3-5 with 3, 5 and 3 catches; a team-high six RB targets in week 4 at a 37% snap share. Ingold (4 targets in wk3) is on IR.
vs #15 pass EPA allowed — mid, and KC ranks 21st in pressure generated, so Herbert has time to work the outlet. Engine 3.17 against his line while Kalshi sits at 43.5%; the gap is Ingold's vacated short-area work.
In the game: Hit twice over. Walker scored from 33 yards on 3rd-and-1 in Q1 and from 2 yards in Q2; KC's only red-zone touchdown of the day was a handoff, as the plan said it would be.
Kansas City's trips inside the 20 end in handoffs with two of its top three receivers unavailable, and Walker is the goal-line back. He has scored in three of four games.
Walker: rushing TD wk1, rushing + receiving TD wk3, two rushing TDs wk4. KC finishes 62.5% of red-zone trips; LAC allows 56.2% (12th) and sits 8th in red-zone EPA — tough but not a wall.
vs #7 EPA allowed overall; this rests on the finishing half of the split, not the field half. Kalshi has him just over 60%, the engine near 0.87 expected scores. Anytime-TD calls are 8-of-12 on the season.
In the game: Hit at 73 yards on 7-for-7 targets with the highest perimeter air-yards share (25.2%) on the roster. Worth noting the yards were 30 air plus 43 YAC — the concentration mechanism held, the downfield part did not.
Rice is out and Thornton is on IR, leaving Worthy as the only perimeter target with an air-yards share. The Charger secondary that earned its ranking is missing its safety and both outside corners from earlier weeks.
Week 4 with Rice inactive: 7 targets, 115 air yards, 36.1% air-yards share, 4-70 including a 41-yard conversion. James (96% snap share) out, Jackson out, Shelley doubtful; Deane Leonard starts on a thin sample.
vs #8 pass EPA allowed — the rank does not bind because three of the defensive backs who built it are unavailable. Engine 61.3 sits above his line while Kalshi is at 48%; the market is paying for the rank, not the roster.
In the game: Hit: one interception, thrown from the KC 42 on 2nd-and-3 with Gillotte in his face, in exactly the chasing script and behind exactly the patched line the call described.
A chasing script against a defense that has forced a giveaway in three of four games, with a quarterback who has thrown a pick in every game this season behind a line down six contributors.
7 INTs in 5 games, a 4.9% interception rate against a 2.2% league mark; two picks each against LV and SEA. KC's defense forced 2, 1, 2, 1 takeaways. The blend shrinks LAC's own rate all the way to league.
vs #15 pass EPA allowed. This is the script half of the call — trailing late with the Chargers needing the ball in the air; Kalshi is at ~55.5% over, modestly ahead of the engine's 0.7 expected picks, and the volume caveat is that this staff does not always throw when behind.
In the game: Hit by 38.5 yards on 19 carries with 6 explosive runs, 8.4 ypc up the middle, against a lead KC held for 3,385 of 3,600 seconds — the volume-plus-matchup mechanism delivered in full.
A favorite that has led nearly every snap all season hands it to Walker against a front whose interior is limited and rated near the bottom. He has had 18+ carries in all four games.
Walker 23/173, 24/117, 18/70, 22/177; KC 5.5 YPC with 3+ explosive runs every week. LAC allowed 176 rush yards to BUF (5.4) in wk3 and 138 to SEA (8.5 on left-side carries) in wk4; Tart rates 12th pct, Tomlinson (hamstring) and Caldwell (knee) limited.
vs #17 rush EPA allowed (#5 YPC, earned largely on the ARI/LV weeks). Engine 91.8 against his line, Kalshi ~52% over — neither prices the interior absences. Rushing-yard calls are the record's best market (56%).
In the game: Hit at 1 reception, and for the stated reason: McConkey played 11.8% of the snaps. The uncommitted snap count was the whole call and it resolved to the under side.
He is off the injury report but his coach would not commit to a snap count, and he has come off back-to-back near-zero games on a third of the snaps in a low-attempt offense.
Snap shares of 49%, 46%, 88%, 34%; 2 targets and no catches in week 4, then missed time with the foot. Harbaugh on Friday: "I don't know... we'll see how it goes" (Rotowire).
vs #15 pass EPA allowed and the #1 defense in fantasy points allowed to receivers. The engine already has him at 2.2 catches while Kalshi prices the over near 47.5% — the market is paying for a full-health return the beat reporting does not promise.
In the game: Hit at zero passing touchdowns. KC's four red-zone trips produced one touchdown (Walker's 2-yard run), a field goal, a stuffed 4th-and-1 at the 1 and a turnover on downs — the ground-finish logic was exactly right.
With a lead and two of the top three receivers unavailable, the red-zone answer is Walker, and the Chargers defend their own 20 better than they defend the field.
KC scored three of four touchdowns in week 4 on a 76-yard run, a 22-yard run and a deep ball; Rice out, Thornton on IR. LAC sits 8th in red-zone EPA allowed and 12th in red-zone TD rate allowed.
vs #8 pass EPA allowed. Engine 1.63 and Kalshi 51% both sit just over the line, so this is a small edge resting on the finishing half of the split; note unders against top-10 defenses are 43% on the season.
In the game: Miss by 4.5 yards, and the mechanism failed: the call was built on attempt suppression and Herbert threw 37 times at a 65.1% pass rate, well above his 52.0% season mark. The under nearly survived only because of a 5.4 aDOT and -9.9 CPOE.
Attempt suppression, not matchup: this staff runs when it trails, and the receiver room is Harris-less with two starters on unclear snap counts. He has not cleared 226 yards in any game.
Pass yards of 209, 192, 226, 189, 121; 38.1% pass rate while behind in week 2 and 48.1% early-down against a 68.2% expectation in week 4. Harris out, McConkey and Johnston uncommitted.
vs #15 pass EPA allowed — the pass rush is soft (KC 21st in pressure), which is the risk to this call. Engine 207.9 sits above his line while Kalshi is at 44.5%; the blend uses a 55% pass rate this staff has not produced while trailing.
In the game: Hit at 4 receptions on 5 targets with KC at 30 attempts and a 52.6% pass rate — the 'volume tracks team attempts under a run-leaning favorite' logic played out exactly.
His volume tracks team attempts, and a run-leaning favorite in a low-total game does not throw enough. Our week-4 review flagged exactly this: the tight-end edge never got tested because Kansas City ran.
Targets of 5, 11, 2, 4 — the 11 came in the one game KC threw 47 times while trailing. In week 4 he played 83% of snaps for 4 targets and 15 yards.
vs #8 pass EPA allowed and a defense 9th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends — the one position stat that carries. Engine 5.12 catches, Kalshi 47.5% over; both assume more attempts than this script gives.
In the game: Hit at 2 catches on 3 targets. KC led wire-to-wire and never needed the back as an outlet; Emmett Johnson's 3 targets in the same role confirm the checkdowns were spread, not concentrated.
The checkdown work only appears when Kansas City trails. With a lead and roughly 30 attempts, the back disappears from the pattern — it happened in both of their wire-to-wire wins.
Targets by week: 6, 10 (the one game KC trailed most of the way), 2, 1. In week 4 he caught one ball for two yards on 30 team attempts; week 3 produced 2 targets on 24.
vs #8 pass EPA allowed. Engine 4.05 catches versus his line, Kalshi only 41.5% over — the market is already closer than the model here, and the script is the reason.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
All three are the same script: Kansas City in front, Walker carrying 20+ to burn clock, no checkdown volume and the red-zone points arriving on the ground rather than through the air.
A Charger deficit that produces carries and checkdowns rather than downfield volume: Herbert's yardage capped, the outlet back collecting catches, and the nominal WR1 on a snap count taking the squeeze.
With Rice and Thornton gone, a small number of attempts concentrates in the one perimeter air-yards share instead of spreading underneath — the same distribution that produced 111 and 70 yards to the outside in week 4 while Kelce took four targets.
grade · 73
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.5 | 22 | -2.5 | |
| Pass yds | 224.0 | 272.0 | +48 | |
| Rush yds | 127.2 | 150.0 | +22.8 | |
| Pass att | 30.7 | 30 | -0.7 | |
| Carries | 28.8 | 27 | -1.8 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.0 | 6 | -11 | |
| Pass yds | 207.9 | 204.0 | -3.9 | |
| Rush yds | 107.3 | 73.0 | -34.3 | |
| Pass att | 31.3 | 37 | +5.7 | |
| Carries | 27.4 | 22 | -5.4 |
The grade of 0.73 (B) is almost entirely a Chargers points problem: 17.0 projected against 6 actual (score 0.45, the only flagged big miss), while LAC's passing yardage came in at 204 against 207.9 and KC's points at 22 against 24.5. The model got the shape right — low plays, a KC total built on the ground, an under — and missed the finishing. LAC's 68 plays and 37 attempts actually exceeded the projection's volume; the 11-point shortfall came from 0-for-3 in the red zone (RZ EPA -0.965), 5-of-17 on third down, 0-of-3 on fourth down and two giveaways in scoring range. On the KC side the engine underrated the passing efficiency (272 on 30 attempts, +9.4 CPOE, 161 YAC) and the explosive run rate (6 rushes of 10+), but those cancelled against zero passing touchdowns, so the team total landed. Market score 0.667: winner and under hit, LAC +7.5 lost.
Pattern: Five weeks, five losses, and the mechanism barely changes: the offense generates adequate field yardage (field EPA between -0.02 and -0.40), then hands the possession back via a sack, a pick or a stall inside the 20. The defense is competent between the 20s (-0.09 to -0.19 field EPA allowed in weeks 3-5) but can be run through by a back with explosive ability.
This week: KC tried exactly this and had the goods: 5.5 ypc entering, 0.197 field EPA/play entering, the lowest pressure-allowed rate in the matchup. It generated 6 explosive runs, didn't take a sack, and converted the short field that LAC's own pick gave it.
What an opponent needs: A back who produces explosive runs on interior carries (10+ rate above 2.3/game), a line that keeps the pass rush below league pressure (LAC's edges still produced 8 QB hits), and the patience to take field goals — you do not need an efficient passing offense to beat LAC, you need to not give the ball back.
Pattern: KC gives up chunk plays through the air and has let two opponents (IND, LV) stay within one score by scoring 27-30, but it holds at its own 20 (opponent 1-for-3 in RZ in wk4 at -0.539 EPA/play) and its offense is efficient between the 20s (0.197 field EPA) while converting only about 60% of its own trips. The loss profile is a shootout, not a grind.
This week: LAC had none of what it takes: -0.302 field EPA entering, 6.5 YPA, one explosive pass all day, and an offensive line that let 4 sacks through. It produced the deep shot but could not sustain or finish.
What an opponent needs: An offense with field EPA above league (0.004+), 3+ explosive passes per game, protection that keeps the sack rate near 6% so the explosives can be attempted, and the red-zone conversion to turn the chunks into seven — KC will trade field for field goals all day.
When a team's miss is finishing, not movement, fade the team total and touchdown props, not the yardage props. LAC's passing yards hit within 4 of projection while the team scored 6 — the markets to attack were anytime-TD and alternate team totals, not receiving yards unders.
Trigger: Offense with field EPA within 0.15 of league but a red-zone TD rate under 0.50 facing a defense with RZ EPA allowed below -0.10 (KC was at -0.106).
A chasing offense's attempt total can spike without the yardage following when aDOT collapses. Herbert threw 37 times (6 over projection) for 204 yards at 5.4 aDOT and -9.9 CPOE. Buy attempts-based props, not yardage props, on a bad offense trailing by two scores.
Trigger: Trailing team with early-down pass rate below expectation (56.2% vs 64.8% here) but a huge late-down pass rate — the volume is all check-downs.
Receiving-back roles move week to week on committee backfields. The projected outlet (Mitchell, 25% snaps, 1 target, 0 catches) was displaced by Vidal (4 targets, 3 catches, 22 YAC) and by a just-activated WR (Lambert-Smith, 9 targets on 86.8% of snaps). Verify the snap share before the role.
Trigger: Any RB projected for 4+ targets whose prior-week snap share is under 35%, especially when a receiver has just been activated off IR.
A favorite that wins by running and scores zero passing touchdowns is a reliable under even when it goes over its projected yardage. KC gained 272 passing yards and 150 rushing yards and scored 22 — the under cashed by 13.5.
Trigger: Favorite with a season pass rate at or below 53%, a back averaging 5+ ypc, and an opponent with four or more weeks of red-zone stalls.
Penalties can erase turnovers. KC's roughing the passer at Q2 13:40 wiped out a Roland-Wallace interception, and a 13-yard roughing extended LAC's final drive. With a defense carrying a bottom-tier flag profile, discount a point or two of turnover-margin edge.
Trigger: Defense averaging 8+ accepted flags and facing an offense drawing DPI at 2x league (LAC entered at 16.6 DPI yards/game).
The short version
Kansas City never trailed, never needed to throw a touchdown, and won 22-6 by handing the ball to Kenneth Walker 19 times for 128 yards and both scores. The Chargers' projected 17 points became six, and the gap was entirely at the goal line: three trips inside the 20, zero touchdowns, -0.965 EPA per snap in there, 5-of-17 on third down and 0-for-3 on fourth. KC -7.5 cashed, the under cashed by 13.5, and the engine's biggest single error (LAC points, score 0.45) was a finishing error, not a yardage error — Herbert's 204 passing yards landed within four of projection.
How it unfolded
KC's first two drives produced 128 yards and ten points, the second ending with Walker's 33-yard run on 3rd-and-1 at 7:29 of the first. From that point the Chargers were chasing on all 68 of their snaps. The one stretch where the game was live came in the second quarter: LAC moved to the KC 42, Herbert's pass for Lambert-Smith was picked by Cochrane and returned to the LAC 17 (-7.86 EPA, the biggest swing of the day), and then KC handed it straight back with Mahomes's interception from the LAC 2. From 9-3 KC went 80 yards in eight plays on a Kelce 24-yarder and a Walker goal-line run, and tacked on a 50-yard Butker kick with seven seconds left for 19-3.
The third quarter contained both teams' best and worst work. Johnston's 57-yard catch on 3rd-and-12 put LAC first-and-goal at the 1; a Slaughter holding penalty at 11:45 pushed them back and the drive produced three points. KC then ran seven plays to the LAC 1 and got stopped on 4th-and-1 (-3.98 EPA), giving LAC the ball at its own 1 — where a delay of game, a sack split by Woods and Jones, and a punt from the back of the end zone followed. Dye's forced fumble on the return handed KC the ball at the LAC 41. The fourth quarter was attrition: a missed 52-yarder, the Lambert-Smith fumble forced by Sneed at the KC 36, and an 11-play, 5:51 Chiefs field-goal drive to end it.
Why the game diverged from the projection
The volume projections were close to perfect on both sides — KC 30 attempts/27 carries against 30.7/28.8, LAC's 68 plays above a projected 61.6. What the engine could not price was the split at the 20. LAC's field EPA (-0.162) was bad but survivable; its red-zone EPA (-0.965) was catastrophic, and three trips produced six points. KC ran the inverse: 0.319 field EPA, -0.748 inside the 20, one touchdown on four trips, which is why 272 passing and 150 rushing yards came to only 22 points and the total still went under.
The other divergence was in the passing shape. KC's projected 224 yards became 272 on fewer attempts than projected, built on a 3.6 aDOT, +9.4 CPOE and 161 YAC — Worthy 7-for-7, Gray's 31-yard catch-and-run, Kelce's 24. LAC threw six more times than projected and gained less, at 5.4 aDOT with -9.9 CPOE and four sacks on 44 dropbacks.
The plan against the game
The pre-game plan's favorite path is almost a transcript of the first three quarters, and eight of its ten calls cashed, including the whole Chiefs-grind parlay. Its one real analytic error was its headline lever: it bet the Chargers would refuse to chase, and they threw on 65.1% of snaps against a 52.0% season rate. The error was harmless because the chase was all short — Herbert cleared the 199.5 yardage under by four yards on six extra attempts — but it should change how the next Charger plan is built: attempts up, air yards down. The Mitchell receptions miss was a role read, not a script read; the outlet work went to Vidal and a just-activated Lambert-Smith, exactly the risk the plan listed as an unknown.
Player by player
Walker is the signal: 19 carries matched projection, the 128 yards and two scores came from six explosive runs and 8.4 ypc up the middle against a thin Charger interior. Worthy's 73 on 7-for-7 confirms the concentration thesis (25.2% air-yards share with Rice out), though 43 of those were YAC. Gray's 53 on three targets is efficiency noise — the target count hit exactly. On the other side, McConkey played 11.8% of snaps for one target while Lambert-Smith, unprojected, led the team with nine, and Hampton split a 22-carry backfield evenly with Vidal at a 50% snap share. Kolar's six targets for 20 yards (18 air yards, 3 YAC) is what a stalled offense's tight end looks like.
The defenses
Charting carries box counts and blitz rates only, no coverage. KC faced a 20.8% blitz rate and a 6.31 average box and took zero sacks on 32 dropbacks; LAC faced 22.2% blitz and a 6.41 box and gave up 4 sacks and 8 QB hits on 44 dropbacks. That asymmetry, against an LAC line missing Alt and Awosika with a 10.9% season sack rate allowed, is the clearest pre-game edge in the dossier. KC's defense was the bend-don't-break unit it has been: it allowed 70 yards on the Johnston drive and three points, and 34 yards on the final drive and nothing.
The blueprint
To beat the Chargers you do not need an efficient offense — you need a back who hits explosive interior runs and a line that keeps you out of sack-fumble territory, because LAC has handed the ball over in four of five weeks and finished 0-for-3 in the red zone here. To beat the Chiefs you need something LAC did not have: 3+ explosive passes, field EPA above league, and the red-zone conversion to turn chunks into seven. LV did it (6 explosive passes, 27 points), IND did it (30). LAC produced one explosive play all day and kicked.
What the model should take from this
Two entries. First, the Charger trailing-lean input is now in doubt — one game is one observation, but a 13-point gap between actual and season pass rate with early-down rate still below expectation says the right model is high attempts at suppressed depth. Second, do not shade KC's team total down for a 1-for-4 red-zone day, a stuffed 4th-and-1 and a missed 52-yarder; the field efficiency (0.319 EPA/play) was fine and the finishing is the least persistent number in the dossier.
Chargers offenseagainst theChiefs defense
Projected LAC offense output — equivalently, what the KC defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 13(7) | 41(18) | 0.3(0) | 1.5(4) | 1.1(4) | 9(21) | 0(0) |
| RB | 6(2) | 22(4) | 0.1(0) | 4.0(1) | 2.9(0) | 19(0) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 3(7) | 17(21) | 0.1(0) | 2.2(4) | 1.4(3) | 5(19) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRFP | 4.6(3) | 2.8(1) | 33(57) | 0.2(0) |
| WRFP | 2.7(1) | 1.8(1) | 26(17) | 0.1(0) |
| WRFP | 3.7 | 1.9 | 17 | 0.1 |
| WRQ | 1.9 | 1.2 | 8 | 0 |
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEFP | 4.3(6) | 3.1(3) | 47(20) | 0.2(0) |
| TE | 3.3(5) | 2.2(3) | 16(17) | 0.1(0) |
| TE | 1.2 | 0.8 | 9 | 0 |
LAC offenserank of 32KC defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 61.6: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 55%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
LAC offenserank of 32KC defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.92: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
LAC offenserank of 32KC defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.64: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 61%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 8.3%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.3%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Chiefs offenseagainst theChargers defense
Projected KC offense output — equivalently, what the LAC defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 20(19) | 92(128) | 0.7(2) | 4.4(3) | 3.4(2) | 19(11) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 3(3) | 11(6) | 0.1(0) | 1.3(3) | 0.9(2) | 18(18) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 3 | 0 |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 4.9 | 2.9 | 54 | 0.4 |
| WR | 6.6(7) | 4.0(7) | 45(73) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 1.8(4) | 1.2(2) | 5(24) | 0(0) |
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 6.0(5) | 4.3(4) | 45(53) | 0.4(0) |
| TE | 3.1(3) | 2.2(3) | 18(53) | 0.1(0) |
KC offenserank of 32LAC defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 61.5: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 53%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 58%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
KC offenserank of 32LAC defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.41: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
KC offenserank of 32LAC defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.31: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 64%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.8%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.3%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.