The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:59 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 12:09 PM Olave carries a broken-handed Shough. Skattebo loses his backfield to Najee. script broke 3 hit6 missed1 void projection F · 41 open
A near pick'em between two flawed teams: the Giants want to run at the league's softest run front, the Saints have to throw it with a quarterback playing on a broken hand. The backfield shake-up in New York is the biggest lever on the card.
A coin-flip game between a 1-4 team that cannot run and a 3-1-1 team that wants to. New York should lean on the ground early against a Saints front missing two starting linebackers and ranked near the bottom in rush success allowed, chewing clock and capping Jameis Winston's attempts. New Orleans answers the only way it can — short, high-volume passing at a Giants secondary down three defensive backs and prone to downfield flags. Both offenses move the ball and stall: New Orleans holds inside its own 20 and New York has settled for field goals in three of five games. Expect a possession game decided by which quarterback gives it away.
New Orleans 34, New York 27 — the Saints covered as 1.5-point favorites and the game sailed over 46.5 (61 points), but almost nothing about the projection's shape held: NO ran it 38 times for 175 and threw for just 144 while the Giants were forced into 47 attempts, 395 passing yards and three turnovers that turned a 10-10 game into 34-10.
The plan read the matchup's static facts correctly — no Giants pass rush, Giants pre-snap flags, a Saints front that gets run through — and then got the direction of the game exactly backwards. It expected New York to grind on the ground and cap Winston's attempts while New Orleans threw 35-40 times; the Giants threw 47 and ran 20, the Saints ran 38 and threw 30. The one path it drew that had a chance, the underdog path (NO early score, chasing Giants, Olave volume), inverted too: New Orleans was the favorite and won by running. Most of the call misses trace to that one inverted lean rather than to independent bad reads, though the Harris call was a reported-start that was never a role.
The script: The favorite won, but not the plan's favorite — New Orleans was laid 1.5 and the plan's 'favorite_path' was written for New York. Checks say both leans failed: NO called pass, played run at a 44.1% pass rate against a 64.8% season rate; NYG called run, played pass at 72.2% against 54.8%. Pace was called average and came in fast (140 plays vs 121.5 league), which is why 46.5 went over by 14.5. The plan's core expectation — 'both offenses move the ball and stall' — broke in the one place it mattered: NO went 3-for-3 in the red zone on 9 snaps at +0.662 EPA.
Expected: Pass rate 62-68%, 35-40 attempts, Olave at 9-12 targets, Vele 6-8, Johnson 4-6, and under 95 rushing yards split three ways. Yards between the 20s, points via field goals as often as touchdowns.
Happened: Expected 62-68% pass and 35-40 attempts with under 95 rush yards; actual 45.1% pass, 30 attempts, 38 carries for 175. Olave got 7 targets, not 9-12, and the points came via three red-zone touchdowns rather than field goals — the opposite of the 'yards between the 20s, points via field goals' read (field EPA -0.161, RZ EPA +0.662).
Expected: Pass rate near .50-.55, 28-32 attempts, 28-30 carries split between Harris and Skattebo with Tracy and Singletary active, Likely at 8-11 targets and Nabers 7-9. Field position and field goals as much as touchdowns.
Happened: Expected .50-.55 pass on 28-32 attempts and 28-30 carries; actual 70% pass, 47 attempts, 20 carries. Likely did land at 11 targets within the 8-11 band and Nabers blew past 7-9 with 15, but the shape — field position and field goals off a run game — never existed after the Q2 kickoff fumble.
A coin-flip game between a 1-4 team that cannot run and a 3-1-1 team that wants to. New York should lean on the ground early against a Saints front missing two starting linebackers and ranked near the bottom in rush success allowed, chewing clock and capping Jameis Winston's attempts. New Orleans answers the only way it can — short, high-volume passing at a Giants secondary down three defensive backs and prone to downfield flags. Both offenses move the ball and stall: New Orleans holds inside its own 20 and New York has settled for field goals in three of five games. Expect a possession game decided by which quarterback gives it away.
New York hands it to Harris and Skattebo behind a line that gets Andrew Thomas back, controls the ball, and lets Likely and Nabers work the middle on early downs. Winston throws 26-30 times, the Giants win low-20s to high-teens, and the game stays near the number.
New Orleans gets an early score, forces the Giants to throw, and Shough stacks 38-plus attempts with Olave at double-digit targets, moving the ball between the 20s and living off Giants pass-interference calls. Saints win 27-24 with Shough over 270.
The read
Two teams that move the ball and don't finish, separated by a point and a half. New York's path is the ground: New Orleans has allowed 148.8 rush yards a game (30th), 4.86 a carry (26th) and ranks 31st in rush success allowed, with Kaden Elliss (95% of snaps) and Anfernee Jennings out for a third straight week — the exact front-seven hole Atlanta ran for 205 yards through in Week 4. New Orleans' path is volume passing: 3.53 yards a carry and 2.0 before contact on the season, so the ground is dead whatever the Giants' front allows, and Tyler Shough is already second in the NFL in attempts. Expect New York's pass rate to sit under its .548 season mark if it leads, and New Orleans' over its .648 if it trails.
Why
The Giants' secondary is the matchup: Adebo on IR, Colton Hood (89% of snaps last game) out with a concussion, Tyler Nubin out, Greg Newsome limited, and a unit that gives up 17.4 DPI yards a game (31st) — free first downs that lengthen Saints drives without showing up as yardage. That is a volume argument for Chris Olave (10.8 targets a game) and Devaughn Vele, not an efficiency one. On the other side, Theo Johnson is ruled out, handing tight end snaps to Isaiah Likely, who has drawn 25 targets in two weeks. The caution is the backfield: ESPN reported Sunday morning that Najee Harris starts and that a four-man committee follows Cam Skattebo's fumbling, which the projection has not absorbed.
Finishing splits the two: New Orleans holds inside its own 20 (5th in red-zone EPA allowed) while surrendering the field (30th between the 20s). That points at yardage over touchdowns on Giants pass-catchers and keeps the total honest.
What would change it
If the Giants' backfield reverts to Skattebo as the workhorse, the Harris call and the Skattebo fade both die. An early two-score Saints deficit turns this into a 45-attempt Shough game and lifts every New Orleans receiving line; an early Giants deficit kills the run script entirely.
A volume short-passing offense: 66 plays a game, a 64.8% pass rate, 6.34 yards an attempt and 66.8% completions, with a run game that has produced 3.53 a carry and 2.0 yards before contact. They have scored 24-30 in three of five and lost four.
Drive length and the red zone — 73.3% touchdowns per trip, best-in-class finishing, with Shough sneaks and Kamara short scores. Explosive passing to Olave (182, 107, 116-yard games) supplies the chunks.
Pressure converted into giveaways: three turnovers at Detroit, five against Las Vegas, two more against Minnesota, with field EPA negative in four of five weeks. When a front gets home on four, the ball comes out.
New York generates pressure at a 13.0% rate (23rd) and has one healthy premium rusher in Abdul Carter (calf, expected to play per Rapoport Sunday) with Burns and Golston on IR — that is the softest pass rush Shough has met since Week 2. The secondary is missing Adebo, Hood and Nubin and leads the league in DPI yards conceded (17.4, 31st). What New York does do is hold at its 20: 5th in red-zone EPA allowed, which turns drives into field goals.
Olave (illness) and Kamara (back) both confirmed active Sunday morning. Shough is playing through two broken bones in his left hand (Schefter). Kelvin Banks and Travis Etienne remain on IR — the tackle's absence is not in the projection and tempers any efficiency read on this line. On the Giants' side, three defensive backs are out or IR.
Pass rate 62-68%, 35-40 attempts, Olave at 9-12 targets, Vele 6-8, Johnson 4-6, and under 95 rushing yards split three ways. Yards between the 20s, points via field goals as often as touchdowns.
A run-leaning, penalty-prone offense (4.8 flags, 3.4 pre-snap per game) at 3.71 yards a carry and 6.36 an attempt, that has swung between 6 points and 36 depending on whether Winston takes shots. Week 5 was 88 plays and 54 attempts in an overtime tie.
Early-down runs to stay on schedule, then Nabers and Likely — the two of them took 68% of the air yards in Week 4 and 33 targets in Week 5. Red-zone trips have produced touchdowns in the two games the deep game worked.
Interior blocking and their own flags: 0-for-4 on red-zone touchdowns across Weeks 2-3, 3.1 a carry against Arizona, and holds that wiped a touchdown run in Week 3. Protection has leaked at a 7.2% sack rate.
New Orleans is 26th in rush EPA allowed, 31st in rush success allowed, 30th in yards per carry and dead last in points allowed to running backs, with Elliss and Jennings out for a third week. They do hold at their own 20 (6th in red-zone EPA allowed), so the yards should arrive more readily than the touchdowns.
Theo Johnson (neck) ruled out — his 48% of snaps go to Likely and depth bodies. Andrew Thomas (groin) expected to play per Rapoport Sunday; Eluemunor (calf) questionable, and two shaky tackles is a real risk to the run-efficiency read even though it is not in the projection. Harris is reported to start ahead of Skattebo.
Pass rate near .50-.55, 28-32 attempts, 28-30 carries split between Harris and Skattebo with Tracy and Singletary active, Likely at 8-11 targets and Nabers 7-9. Field position and field goals as much as touchdowns.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Mechanism was volume from a pass-heavy script; Vele played 91.7% of snaps and got exactly 6 targets (the engine's number) for 3-42. The pass volume never came — 30 attempts, not 35-plus — so the call missed by one reception with its reasoning intact-but-unfed.
A full-time perimeter role in an offense that throws 35-plus times with no run game to fall back on. Volume, not efficiency — his yards per catch is modest.
Snap share 88-96% in all five games, targets of 9, 7, 6, 9, 6 and at least three catches every week.
vs #16 pass EPA allowed. Engine is above the line and Kalshi agrees at roughly 58%; the price is short, so this is a parlay leg rather than a standalone.
In the game: Olave drew 7 targets on a 58.3% snap share and caught 4; the target-tree read was right (projection had 7.2) but the premise of a 35-40 attempt chase game was not, and his 43 yards came on 53 air yards with 6 YAC.
He is the whole target tree on a team that has to throw, and the Giants are down three defensive backs. Confirmed active Sunday morning after an illness week.
Targets of 13, 10, 13, 12 and 6 with receptions of 10, 8, 9, 8, 4; snap share 84-91% every week. Shough is second in the NFL in attempts.
vs #16 pass EPA allowed. The engine's mean sits just above the line and Kalshi has not quoted this market, so the call stands on the engine alone; the engine's 7.4 projected targets is well under his 10.8 season rate.
In the game: He started in name only: 4 carries, 2 yards, -2.99 rushing EPA, 14.3% snaps, with 1 stuff. The 'softest run front' was there — NO allowed 4.2 ypc up the middle to its own backs' mirror — but the Giants trailed and abandoned the run, and the committee went to Tracy and Singletary.
He is reported to start Sunday after the lead back's fumbling, and he runs into the softest run front he will see this year. Pure volume call, not an efficiency one.
ESPN's Fowler and Raanan, Sunday morning: Harris starting, Skattebo demoted into a committee. Saints allow 148.8 rush yards a game and rank last in points allowed to backs; Harris went 9-52 in Week 3 in a lead script.
vs #26 rush EPA allowed. Engine mean sits right on the line; Kalshi has the over near 57%, and neither has absorbed the Sunday-morning start news. Rushing overs are the model's best market this year.
In the game: Exactly as drawn: with the second tight end out Likely played 90.9% of snaps, drew 11-12 targets and caught 6 for 99 and a touchdown. The only deviation is that it came in a 47-attempt game, not the low-attempt day the plan expected.
The second tight end is ruled out, handing him the room outright, and he has been the short-area hub for two straight weeks against a defense that concedes the middle of the field.
13 and 12 targets the last two weeks, 11 catches in Week 5, snap share 80%+; Theo Johnson (48% of snaps) out. New Orleans allows 16.7 fantasy points a game to tight ends (26th).
vs #25 pass EPA allowed. Engine is a touch above the line, Kalshi prices the over slightly under even — the market is not crediting the vacated tight end snaps.
In the game: The chasing script that was supposed to feed it never arrived — NO led for 1,651 of the game's seconds and threw 30 times. Olave's 43 yards on 7 targets with a 28.8% air-yards share; the one touchdown (Q4 11:36, 18 yards) came off a Blackmon interception return to the 21.
A chasing script and a secondary missing three starters is how he has posted his big weeks. The Giants give up the field between the 20s even as they hold at their goal line.
182, 86, 107 and 116-yard games before a 46-yard week against Minnesota; 37-50% of New Orleans air yards every week. Giants are 30th in EPA allowed between the 20s and 31st in DPI yards given up.
vs #16 pass EPA allowed. Engine sits a shade under the line and Kalshi is near even — the call rests on the Giants' injured secondary, which neither number weights.
In the game: The call hit at 9 yards, but not for the reason given: Lance played 50% of snaps and drew 4 targets — more than Johnson and Fant combined — including the 4th-and-2 touchdown at Q2 0:05. Volume arrived; the yards (25 air yards, 4 YAC) did not.
Snap share without targets: his routes have produced almost nothing for a month and his playing time fell off a cliff last week. The targets belong to Olave, Vele and the tight end.
0, 7 and 0 receiving yards the last three weeks on eight targets; snap share dropped from 85% to 42% in Week 5.
vs #16 pass EPA allowed. The engine has him at a fraction of this line while Kalshi prices the over near 46% — the exchange's player prices are thin here and this is the widest gap on the card.
In the game: Zero catches on 2 targets at a 58.3% snap share with Fant (58.3%) and Delp (43.1%) splitting the room — the snap-share-erosion mechanism was exactly right, and the receiving EPA of -1.88 confirms he was a dead target.
His snap share has slipped as the other tight end has returned to a full-time role, and the catches cluster only when New Orleans is trailing by multiple scores.
Snaps of 84%, 53%, 62%, 78%, 64%; four catches or fewer in three of five games, with Noah Fant up to 67% of snaps in Week 5.
vs #16 pass EPA allowed. Engine is well under the line, Kalshi has the over at about 43% — both sides point the same way, and the read is the tight-end split, not the matchup.
In the game: The stated premise — 'New Orleans only gets to 20-plus carries in a game it leads, which is not the likely shape here' — is precisely the shape that happened. Miller got 20 carries for 70 at a 44.4% snap share while the Saints killed clock; the logic was sound, the script call was wrong.
Three backs share a run game that cannot run, and Kamara is confirmed active. New Orleans only gets to 20-plus carries in a game it leads, which is not the likely shape here.
30, 14, 9 and 30 rushing yards across four appearances on a 19-31% snap share; the offense has averaged 3.53 a carry with 2.0 yards before contact.
vs #26 rush EPA allowed — the soft rank favors the over, so this rests purely on the committee split and a pass-leaning script. Engine is just under the line, Kalshi near even.
In the game: The script call was inverted: Winston threw 26 times in 30 dropbacks while trailing, not fewer in a run-leaning lead, and gave up two picks worth -5.40 and -5.58 EPA to Emerson and Blackmon. 'New Orleans has forced almost nothing all season' was also wrong on the day — three takeaways.
This is a script call: a favorite leaning on the run throws fewer times than projected, and New Orleans has forced almost nothing all season. Fewer attempts, fewer chances to give it away.
Saints have forced 1, 1, 0, 0 and 2 turnovers in five games; the Giants threw just 22 times in their Week 3 lead script and ran at a .380 pass rate while ahead.
vs #25 pass EPA allowed. Engine has him near a pick a game and Kalshi prices 1+ at 57%; our own study says the 1+ rung is overstated by three to four points on a typical quarterback, more for favorites.
The Giants are shaking up the backfield after his fumbling, with Harris starting and two more backs active. Touches, not yards per touch, are what this call is about.
Four fumbles in five games at 3.6 a carry; carries already down to 13 in Week 5, and one target in Week 4. ESPN reported Sunday a four-man committee.
vs #26 rush EPA allowed — a soft front that argues the other way, which is why this is a volume call only. The engine is far above the line; Kalshi prices the over near a third, and the Sunday news backs the market.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: New York leans on the run against the league's softest run front, the carries split away from Skattebo toward Harris, and with the second tight end out Likely absorbs the short passing game in a lower-attempt day.
A 35-40 attempt New Orleans day concentrates on the two full-time receivers against a secondary missing three defensive backs; the same concentration is what leaves the fourth option with nothing.
grade · 41
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.0 | 34 | +10 | |
| Pass yds | 228.1 | 144.0 | -84.1 | |
| Rush yds | 104.0 | 175.0 | +71 | |
| Pass att | 34.2 | 30 | -4.2 | |
| Carries | 25.2 | 38 | +12.8 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.5 | 27 | +4.5 | |
| Pass yds | 220.1 | 395.0 | +174.9 | |
| Rush yds | 125.2 | 84.0 | -41.2 | |
| Pass att | 31.7 | 47 | +15.3 | |
| Carries | 28.6 | 20 | -8.6 |
The grade is an F (0.406) despite the model going 2-of-3 on calls (winner and spread right, Under wrong), because every volume input inverted. The engine blended NO to a 59% pass rate off a 64.8% season rate; the Saints threw on 45.1% of snaps and on only 30% once leading, running 38 times for 175 yards against a projected 25.2/104. The Giants were blended to 28.6 carries and 31.7 attempts; they ran 20 times and dropped back 49, because they trailed by 14-plus from Q3 12:31 onward and had 38 of 70 snaps in a trailing state (78.9% pass). NYG pass yards missed by +174.9 and pass attempts by +15.3 — both pure game-state consequences, amplified by McCarthy's 6-for-6 on deep balls in garbage time. The team-total side was closer than the shape: NO 24 projected / 34 actual, NYG 22.5 / 27, but the 61-point total blew through a 46.5 number the model matched exactly.
Pattern: A defense that gets run on and gives up chunk throws, attached to an offense that doesn't move the ball well between the 20s but finishes in the red zone (73.3% TD rate entering, 3-for-3 here). You beat them by staying on schedule and not giving the ball away; they beat themselves when they turn it over, and this week they didn't.
This week: NYG had the explosive-pass profile to exploit it (3 weeks tagged, 5 of 20+ in week 4, 4 in week 5) and did — 7 explosives, 395 yards, 10.0 adot — but 25 of those snaps were garbage time and three giveaways erased the damage. The run half of the blueprint, which the matchup screamed for, never got a chance: 20 carries, Harris 4-for-2, Skattebo inactive.
What an opponent needs: A ground game with rush EPA near zero or better and an explosive-run rate above 2.3/game to punish the front, plus a quarterback who protects the ball — NO's defense generated 3 takeaways here but only 4 in five prior games, so the giveaways have to be opponent-supplied.
Pattern: A team that can move the ball in chunks but cannot stay on schedule — penalties and sacks put it behind the sticks, third down fails, and the giveaways come in bunches. Defensively it neither rushes the passer nor holds up against the run, so it needs opponent mistakes to get off the field.
This week: NO had no business running for 175 (3.53 ypc, 2.0 YBC entering) but the Giants' front gave it up anyway — this is the clearest version yet that the run blueprint cashes even for an offense without the rushing efficiency to deserve it. The pass-rush hole was equally confirmed: zero sacks allowed by a Saints line facing a near-50% blitz rate.
What an opponent needs: Almost nothing exotic: a willingness to run and a lead. A future opponent needs only a competent run game plus a quarterback who can hold the ball — the Giants' 12.8% pressure rate means dropbacks are safe. Add a defense capable of forcing two giveaways and the margin arrives on its own.
When a heavy-pass team with a dead ground game draws a bottom-five run front, the engine's blended pass rate is the wrong input the moment that team leads. NO entered at 64.8% pass and played the game at 45.1% (30% while leading). Fade the QB passing-yardage over and the RB-committee unders in that spot.
Trigger: Blended pass rate 5+ points below the team's season rate, opponent allowing 4.8+ ypc, and the team favored or in a close spread.
Garbage-time passing yardage is real money for the trailing quarterback and for the total. NYG had 25 garbage-time snaps, McCarthy went 6/6 on deep balls and the last three drives produced 73, 79 and 57 yards. The side was never in doubt (WP min 0.000) while the total went over by 14.5.
Trigger: A backup or change-of-pace QB entering down 24 with 12+ minutes left against a defense that just stopped rushing the passer.
Read the red-zone split in the right direction. The pre-game read had NO as a yards-without-touchdowns team; the engine inputs said the opposite (73.3% TD rate, +0.123 RZ EPA against -0.108 field EPA). NO went 3-for-3 inside the 20 on -0.161 field EPA — a team total that beat its projection by 10 on 0.338 success rate.
Trigger: Field EPA below league while red-zone EPA is above it: back the team total and anytime-TD props, fade the yardage props.
Pre-snap penalty rate is the one flag category worth pricing, and it bites in scoring position. NYG's 3.4/game became 5 here, including consecutive false starts that moved first down backwards at their own 16 and two that stalled fourth-quarter drives into a field goal.
Trigger: Offense at 3+ pre-snap flags/game entering, in a no-huddle comeback script — shade kicker-points over and the offense's goal-line TD props down.
A projection can be right on the side, right on both team totals' direction, and still be a failure — the shape is where props live. 2-of-3 calls, F grade, 19 of 36 player lines.
Trigger: Any game where the model's carries and attempts projections for both teams point opposite to the likely script; grade the volume before trusting the player lines.
The short version
New Orleans won 34-27 as a 1.5-point favorite and the game went over 46.5 by fourteen and a half points, and the projection still earned an F. The reason is that everything about the shape inverted. The model had the Saints throwing 34 times and running 25; they ran 38 times for 175 yards and threw for 144. It had the Giants running 29 times for 125; they ran 20 for 84 and dropped back 49. The side was right and the mechanism was unrecognizable.
How it unfolded
New York took the opening quarter on the back of a 12-play, 93-yard drive out of its own 7, converting a 4th-and-1 with a Winston quarterback sneak at 8:09 and hitting Likely for 24 before Tracy's 17-yard touchdown catch. Then the Giants' offense stopped functioning: four straight possessions of -6, 16, 29 and -5 net yards with three Winston sacks sprinkled through them, the pass rush the Saints weren't supposed to have arriving on 2nd-and-7 and 3rd-and-7 at the NYG 33.
The half turned on special teams. With 1:18 left and New York up 10-3, Charlie Jones fumbled the kickoff at the 27 and New Orleans recovered at the 28 — a 13-point WP swing. Shough scrambled 25 yards to the 3 on the next snap, Miller was stuffed for -1 on 3rd-and-1, and Shough found Lance on 4th-and-2 with five seconds left. Tied at the half, 10-10.
Out of the break New Orleans went seven plays and 69 yards, finished by a 31-yard catch-and-run to Kamara. From there the game was a sequence of Giants self-destruction: Winston intercepted by Emerson at the NO 26 (Q3 4:23), Winston intercepted by Blackmon and returned to the NYG 21 (Q4 12:28, which became an Olave touchdown two snaps later), McCarthy intercepted by Emerson at 10:27. 34-10, win probability at zero.
The last twelve minutes were a different game entirely and the reason the total cashed. McCarthy, 6-for-6 on deep throws with a 14.8 adot, pushed drives of 45, 73, 79 and 57 yards. The Giants scored 17 straight and got to 4th-and-1 at the NO 14 with twelve seconds left before an incompletion to Likely ended it.
Why the game diverged from the projection
The engine blended New Orleans to a 59% pass rate off a 64.8% season rate and gave them 4.12 yards a carry. What it could not model was a Saints team that, once it had the lead, threw on 30% of 30 snaps and leaned on an early-down pass rate of 34.5% against a 49.8% expectation. That is the most run-heavy posture of their season, and it worked: five rushes of 10-plus, 5.4 yards a carry to the right side, a 30:56 time of possession.
The mirror is the Giants. Blended to 28.6 carries, they got 38 of 70 snaps in a trailing state and threw on 78.9% of them. The 174.9-yard passing miss and the 15.3-attempt miss are one fact wearing two hats, compounded by a quarterback change that handed 21 dropbacks to a passer with a 14.8 air-depth who went 6-for-6 deep. That is noise. What was not noise: five sacks taken against 2.3 projected, Winston pressured on 30% of dropbacks while Shough faced one QB hit on 32 dropbacks against a 48.6% blitz rate. The pass-rush differential was in the inputs — NYG 12.8% pressure generated, 'no pass rush' tagged three times — and the model underweighted it.
The plan against the game
The plan got the static facts right and the direction wrong. It correctly identified the Saints' missing linebackers as the hole to run through and correctly identified the Giants as unable to rush the passer; it then assigned those facts to the wrong offenses. Both leans failed by wide margins: New Orleans called for pass played at 44.1%, New York called for run played at 72.2%, and pace called average came in fast at 140 plays. The most instructive miss is D3 — the plan's own reasoning said Miller only gets 20 carries in a game New Orleans leads, which is exactly the game that happened. And the U3 Harris call was a Sunday beat report that produced 14.3% of snaps.
Player by player
Nabers went 12-165 on 15 targets against a 65-yard projection, a 3.4x miss that was two-thirds comeback volume and one-third genuine target dominance (33.8% air-yards share). Likely hit his receptions projection exactly — 5.8 for 6 — while beating his yardage by 48 on throws McCarthy made in a two-score hole; his receiving EPA was -1.38 despite the box score. Miller's 20 carries for 70 came with -4.11 rushing EPA, pure clock-killing volume. Harris: 4 carries, 2 yards, 14.3% snaps. Juwan Johnson: 2 targets, zero catches on a 58.3% snap share, with Fant and Delp splitting the rest of the room — that one is a role read, not a bounce. Kamara at 26.4% snaps turned 11 touches into a 31-yard touchdown and 69 yards; the usage is low and the leverage is high.
The defenses
New Orleans forced three takeaways with Emerson (2 INTs, 4 PDs) and Blackmon, which they had not done all year, and gave up 7 explosive passes and 395 yards — the same bend-and-break pattern the week 3 and week 4 tags flagged, except the breaks came after the game was decided. The Giants' front produced nothing: zero sacks, one hit, a defense that got run on for 175 after being run on in weeks 2 and 4. Charting this season does not include coverage shells, so I'll stay on the proxies: a 48.6% blitz rate against New Orleans that generated a 3.1% hit rate is a blitz that isn't getting home.
What the model should take from this
Two real reads. First, New Orleans' pass rate is lead-contingent in a way the blend does not capture — shade it toward the run whenever they are favored. Second, their red-zone split points the right way: 73.3% TD rate and positive red-zone EPA against negative field EPA entering, 3-for-3 on nine snaps here. That is a team whose points beat its yards, which matters for team totals and anytime-TD props much more than for yardage lines.
Two things to leave alone. The kickoff fumble (-4.28 EPA, the game's largest WP swing) is special-teams variance. McCarthy's 6-for-6 deep in prevent coverage is garbage time. Neither should move a number next week — but the 25 garbage-time snaps that produced them are a reminder that a total can cash entirely after the side is dead.
Saints offenseagainst theGiants defense
Projected NO offense output — equivalently, what the NYG defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBQ | 6(7) | 26(34) | 0.2(0) | 2.8(4) | 2.1(2) | 4(35) | 0(1) |
| RB | 8(20) | 27(70) | 0.2(0) | 0.9(2) | 0.6(2) | 2(0) | 0(0) |
| RB | 4 | 20 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 0 |
| RB | 3(6) | 18(39) | 0.2(0) | 0.8(1) | 0.5(0) | 5(0) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRQ | 7.2(7) | 4.7(4) | 76(43) | 0.6(1) |
| WR | 6.0(6) | 4.1(3) | 45(42) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 4.8 | 3.0 | 22 | 0.2 |
| WR | 2.9(4) | 1.7(2) | 5(9) | 0(1) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 4.8(2) | 3.3(0) | 37(0) | 0.3(0) |
| TE | 1.4(1) | 1.1(0) | 12(0) | 0.1(0) |
NO offenserank of 32NYG defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 61.6: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 59%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 62%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NO offenserank of 32NYG defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.12: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NO offenserank of 32NYG defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.67: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 66%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.9%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.3%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giants offenseagainst theSaints defense
Projected NYG offense output — equivalently, what the NO defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 16 | 71 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 24 | 0.2 |
| RBFP | 6(4) | 25(2) | 0.1(0) | 0.2(0) | 0.1(0) | 1(0) | 0(0) |
| RB | 2(6) | 4(18) | 0(1) | 0.6(3) | 0.4(2) | 5(27) | 0(1) |
| RB | 1(4) | 5(14) | 0(0) | 0.7(1) | 0.6(1) | 3(19) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 8.4(15) | 5.3(12) | 65(165) | 0.6(0) |
| WR | 3.6(8) | 2.4(2) | 36(19) | 0.3(0) |
| WRFP | 3.8(2) | 2.2(0) | 28(0) | 0.2(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEFP | 8.3(11) | 5.8(6) | 51(99) | 0.5(1) |
| TEO | no projected volume | |||
NYG offenserank of 32NO defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 62.6: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 54%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 58%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NYG offenserank of 32NO defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.38: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NYG offenserank of 32NO defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.95: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 63%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 6.8%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.8%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.