The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:35 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 11:34 AM Allen carries a Jets offense that can't stay on the field. Maye picks it apart. script partly held 4 hit6 missed projection B · 78 open
New England controls this with short passing and a committee run game; the Jets' path is Allen on the ground, and their biggest enemy is their own drive count.
New England should lead early and play the possession game it played against Buffalo and Las Vegas: long drives, short throws, a three-way backfield, and fourth-down aggression inside scoring range. The Jets' answer is Braelon Allen and a handful of concentrated shots to Garrett Wilson, with their drive count the limiting factor — penalties and third downs have ended New York's possessions all season. The Jets' defense is good enough to keep this nearer 24-17 than 31-17, so points may arrive as field goals as often as touchdowns. Expect the totals pressure to come from the Jets' side of the ledger, not New England's.
New England won 26-19 as a 7.5-point favorite — the Jets covered and the game went over 43.5 by a point and a half — and the entire gap was finishing: the Jets outgained their projection and scored zero touchdowns on three red-zone trips plus two failed fourth downs in New England territory.
The plan read the shape of this game well: New England leading throughout, winning short with a three-man backfield and a run lean, points arriving as field goals as often as touchdowns, the Jets' offense limited rather than explosive. Where it went wrong is the mechanism behind the Jets' limitation — it bet on pre-snap penalties and third downs ending New York's drives, and instead New York cleaned up its flags (5 for 35, 2 pre-snap) and died at the 20 and on fourth down. That inversion flipped three calls at once: Smith's yardage, his interception, and the Under. The call record (4-6) understates the read; most of the misses were efficiency and target-tree surprises (Cooper, Brown's return, Henry's 39 YAC), not a misread of the script.
The script: New England followed the favorite path almost literally from the second quarter on: it leaned on Stevenson and Kiner between the 20s (36 carries, checks confirm a run lean at a 47.1% pass rate against a 52.5% season rate), Maye finished with 32 attempts and 235 modest yards, and the Jets threw from behind — 45 of their 61 snaps came trailing and their second-half pass rate was 73.1%. But the plan's two stated limiters both failed: the Patriots did not score on their first two or three possessions (punt, punt, then the 42-yard Doubs shot off a short field), and the Jets' drive count was never the constraint — 61 plays, 29:49 of possession, and 345 yards. Pace was called average and came in fast (128 plays vs 121.5 league), the NYJ lean was called pass and graded balanced (55.0% against a 55.3% season rate), and the total the plan expected to land 'well under' went over by a point and a half on six field goals.
Expected: About 31-33 attempts at a pass rate near their season mark, 28-ish carries split three ways, yardage below their two-week pace, and the receiving tree spread rather than concentrated. Yards between the 20s; the question is whether trips end in sevens or threes.
Happened: Attempts landed exactly (32 vs the 31-33 band), the tree spread as described (Brown 10, Douglas 8, Henry 5, Raridon 3), and yardage came in below the two-week pace at 235. But the carry split was 36, not 28, and the yards did not come between the 20s — field EPA was -0.006 while the red zone produced two touchdowns.
Expected: Pass rate near 60% but on a suppressed play count — 28-32 attempts is the realistic band, not 38. Allen 18-22 carries, Wilson 9-11 targets with the air yards, and the rest of the room splitting scraps.
Happened: Attempts (30) and Allen's carries (17) hit the bands, but the pass rate was 54.1%, not 'near 60%', and Wilson drew 6 targets rather than 9-11 with Cooper taking 7 and Taylor 6. The suppressed play count the plan assumed never materialized: 61 plays, 52 of them between the 20s.
New England should lead early and play the possession game it played against Buffalo and Las Vegas: long drives, short throws, a three-way backfield, and fourth-down aggression inside scoring range. The Jets' answer is Braelon Allen and a handful of concentrated shots to Garrett Wilson, with their drive count the limiting factor — penalties and third downs have ended New York's possessions all season. The Jets' defense is good enough to keep this nearer 24-17 than 31-17, so points may arrive as field goals as often as touchdowns. Expect the totals pressure to come from the Jets' side of the ledger, not New England's.
New England scores on its first two or three possessions, leans on Stevenson and Kiner between the 20s, and makes Geno throw from behind into a defense that doesn't give anything deep. Maye finishes near 30 attempts with modest yardage and the Patriots win comfortably without a shootout.
New York wins the penalty battle, Allen moves the chains on early downs, and Wilson converts his usual air-yards share into a couple of explosives. The Jets' defense gets New England into third-and-long, the game sits at 17-16 in the fourth, and the total lands well under.
The read
New England by a touchdown-plus feels right in shape, not necessarily in points. The Jets' defense is the best unit on the field — 6th in EPA allowed, 4th in passing yards and yards per attempt allowed — and New England's offense, hot as it has been (0.366 EPA/play on 45 points against Las Vegas), has never met a secondary like this in its two-game surge. What New York cannot do is stay on the field: 5.2 accepted flags a game with 2.8 of them pre-snap (the league offense averages 1.55), 3.59 yards a carry, and two of five games under 40 team plays or close to it. New England should own possession and win on short, high-completion throws and committee carries rather than chunk plays.
Why
The Jets' defense is stingy per play but 27th in rush success allowed — it concedes the first-down-at-a-time ground script Chicago used in week 4 (54 carries) without conceding yards per carry (6th in rush EPA). That caps Stevenson's yardage while keeping New England on schedule, and pushes Maye into the checkdown layer where Douglas and Stevenson live. On the other side, Breece Hall is out again and Braelon Allen is a true workhorse (24-116 in week 5) against a Patriots front that is 20th in rush EPA allowed; Allen's carry count is the most dependable volume in the game. Garrett Wilson remains the only concentrated target in New York's tree with Mitchell out, and New England is without Carlton Davis.
What would change it
Our week-4 Jets review is the warning: we priced their passing volume off score state and they threw 15 times because they never possessed the ball. If New York converts third downs and keeps flags down, Geno's and Wilson's volume plays up. Henderson's and A.J. Brown's game-day status, and whether Brown's snaps are real, move New England's target tree. Sadiq's clearance from concussion protocol is still pending at the inactives.
A low-margin offense that has flipped in two weeks: 8.1 yards per attempt on the season, 0.063 field EPA, and 45 points on Las Vegas with 0.35 EPA/play between the 20s. It moves on short, accurate throws and scrambles, not on a dominant run game (4.21 YPC).
Long, possession-heavy drives with fourth-down aggression inside scoring range (2-for-2 at Buffalo), checkdowns and intermediate throws to Henry, Douglas, Chism and Doubs, and Maye's legs. Touchdowns have come from short-field finishing rather than deep shots.
Its own giveaways — tagged for turnovers in four of five weeks, with a 4.5% INT rate — plus third down (roughly 30% for the season) and stretches of red-zone stalling (1 TD on 7 trips across weeks 1-3). A stout interior run defense makes it one-dimensional.
The Jets are 4th in pass yards and yards per attempt allowed and 6th in rush EPA — they do not give up chunks. But they are 27th in rush success allowed, so New England can stay on schedule on the ground without gaining much per carry, and they are 27th in accepted flags with 15 DPI yards a game (29th), which hands out free first downs. New York holds in the red zone at a middling rate; nothing here says this becomes a 35-point day.
Mack Hollins is on IR; A.J. Brown was activated and Rapoport reported Sunday morning he'll play 'a good amount' of snaps, which thins Doubs' and Chism's shares. Henderson is questionable but Rapoport (Sunday) expects him to suit up. The line is patched — Will Campbell questionable with an MCL sprain but expected to play per Rapoport, Moses limited, Onwenu and Van Roten on IR — a real temper on protection and run efficiency even though the projection carries no line input. Against them the Jets are without edge Joseph Ossai (31% of snaps) and DT Onyemata.
About 31-33 attempts at a pass rate near their season mark, 28-ish carries split three ways, yardage below their two-week pace, and the receiving tree spread rather than concentrated. Yards between the 20s; the question is whether trips end in sevens or threes.
A possession offense without the efficiency to possess: 3.59 YPC, 2.07 yards before contact, field EPA of -0.04, and 5.2 accepted flags a game. Its yardage comes in bursts — Wilson's air-yards share and the occasional Allen explosive.
Garrett Wilson, who has carried roughly half the team's air yards in three of five weeks, plus Allen's early-down volume. Red-zone trips have been scarce and converted at 50%; field goals have carried the scoreboard.
Pressure (sacks in four straight weeks, 9.3% sack rate) and their own flags — three delay-of-game penalties at Chicago, 13 flags against Green Bay. When the run is stuffed they have no counterpunch, and when the drives die the whole volume model dies with it (32 plays at Chicago).
New England pressures at the 9th-highest rate but converts little of it to sacks (5.8%), and ranks 20th in rush EPA allowed with 14th in rush success — a front Allen can move, even if yardage allowed per game is low. The Patriots give up the red zone: 23rd in TD rate allowed per trip and 28th in EPA inside their 20, which is the case for New York's touchdowns if they can get there.
Breece Hall is out (ruled out Friday, per the New York Post), making Allen the workhorse again; Adonai Mitchell is out for a third straight week; Omar Cooper Jr. activated off IR and is questionable but expected to play, an unknown role; Sadiq cleared a full Friday practice and is expected to play per Rapoport. Guard Dylan Parham is out for a third week, which is part of the protection story. Opposite them, Carlton Davis is out at corner and Prunty is out, but Gonzalez is back full.
Pass rate near 60% but on a suppressed play count — 28-32 attempts is the realistic band, not 38. Allen 18-22 carries, Wilson 9-11 targets with the air yards, and the rest of the room splitting scraps.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Douglas caught 7 of 8 in exactly the underneath role described, with 24 YAC and the 9-yard touchdown before half. The only nuance is 71 air yards — he was more than a checkdown, but the mechanism (short throws, volume to the slot) is what produced it.
New England wins this by checkdown and short throws against a defense that concedes nothing deep, and Douglas is the underneath target. A low catch bar for a man seeing five looks a week.
Targets of 7, 2, 5, 3, 5; 4-65-2 in week 5 at a 49% snap share. Engine projects 3.4 catches on 5.1 targets.
vs #11 pass EPA allowed — mid, and the Jets' strength is yards per attempt (4th), not catch volume; market's price is well below the engine.
In the game: Zero targets on 60.3% of snaps. New England's backs saw one target combined all game; the pass-down receiving role the call assumed does not exist in this offense.
He is the pass-down back in an offense that will throw short against a defense that takes away depth, and the Jets concede receiving work to backs.
Targets of 6, 2, 3, 5, 3; three catches in each of the last two weeks. Jets rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to backs.
vs #11 pass EPA allowed; engine above the line, market shades it lower — the market is pricing a run-script game that actually raises his checkdown share.
In the game: 17 carries for 78 with four runs of 10+ — the workhorse share with Hall out, and the chunk-yardage-against-value profile the plan described. Even his two stuffs and -3.24 rush EPA fit 'volume over value.'
With Hall out again Allen is the whole backfield, and he's handled a true workhorse load the last two weeks. New England stops rushing value better than it stops rushing volume.
Week 5: 24 carries, 116 yards, TD; week 4: 14 of the Jets' 14 RB carries. 38 attempts over two games; projected 20.1 here.
vs #20 rush EPA allowed; engine mean sits comfortably above the line, market prices it near a coin flip. Rush_yds calls are the plans' best market this season (56%).
In the game: The chasing script arrived (45 trailing snaps, 73.1% second-half pass rate), but the concentration premise failed: Cooper, off IR, took 7 targets and 103 yards and Taylor took 6 for 33, leaving Wilson 6 for 44 and a 22.1% air-yards share.
Mitchell out for a third week leaves Wilson as the only concentrated target, and a chasing script funnels everything through him against a secondary missing its second corner.
104 yards on 11 targets in week 5, 107 on 13 in week 3; roughly half the team's air yards in three of five weeks. Carlton Davis ruled out Friday.
vs #11 pass EPA allowed; engine sits well above the line and the market is barely over even — the gap is the air-yards concentration the market smooths away.
In the game: The role read was right — 2 targets, 3 total air yards, both behind or at the line. The 26 yards came from 23 YAC on two catches, which is the bounce, not a usage change.
Allen is a carry-volume back, not a receiving one: his targets are behind-the-line and his catches have produced almost nothing all year. The Jets' checkdown work has gone elsewhere.
Receiving yards by week: 0, 8, 3, 8, 0 on nine total targets. Engine projects barely a third of the posted line.
vs #11 pass EPA allowed; the engine's mean is far under the line while the market prices it near even money — the clearest disagreement on the card.
In the game: 36 total yards against a 99.5 line, with 3 stuffs and zero receiving work. The committee cap plus the Jets' rushing-value defense (-0.219 EPA/rush allowed) is exactly the stated mechanism.
A three-way backfield meets the one thing the Jets actually do well — stopping rushing value. Henderson is expected to play, which caps the carry share further.
Stevenson's season high is 64 rushing yards; 13 carries in each of the last two weeks with Kiner taking 6 in week 5. Rapoport Sunday: Henderson likely to suit up.
vs #6 rush EPA allowed; the line sits far above the engine's mean and even the market's own price implies well under 50%.
In the game: 14 carries for 36 (2.6/carry). The Jets allowed 4.1 a carry overall but held Stevenson specifically, with Kiner (5.2) getting the efficient work.
Committee carries into the Jets' best trait: they allow first downs on the ground but not yardage, and New England's interior is patched with two starters on IR.
Jets allow 4.21 per carry with -0.203 rush EPA; Stevenson at 3.5 per carry on the season. Engine projects under 10 carries with Henderson and Kiner active.
vs #6 rush EPA allowed; engine mean sits clearly under the line while the market prices it over — the market is buying the lead script, not the matchup.
In the game: 252 yards on 30 attempts. The premise — that flags and third downs would cap the attempt count — failed on both legs: only 2 pre-snap flags, 61 plays, and the deficit did force throws (33 dropbacks, 73.1% second-half pass rate).
The Jets' passing volume dies with their drive count, not with the scoreboard: pre-snap flags and third-down failures end possessions before a deficit can force throws. Mitchell is out again.
Our week-4 review: they trailed all game at Chicago and threw 15 times on 32 plays. Season: 2.8 pre-snap flags a game, 5.2 total; 182 yards in week 5.
vs #13 pass EPA allowed, and New England is 10th in pass yards allowed per game; engine mean already below the line, market a shade lower still — the read is that both understate the possession cap.
In the game: The interception came at Q4 12:31 on a deep shot for Sadiq from a 10-point deficit — precisely the chasing volume the call assumed would never arrive. The defense that 'almost never gets the ball' also recovered a fumble and forced two fourth-down stops.
This is a volume call on takeaways: New England's defense almost never gets the ball, and the Jets' attempt count is capped by their own drive-killing penalties rather than inflated by chasing.
Smith has thrown zero interceptions on 147 attempts; New England generates picks on 0.6% of attempts, a third of league rate, with two corners out of the rotation.
vs #13 pass EPA allowed; the engine's mean implies better than a coin flip on 1+, the rung our own doctrine calls its weakest number — we fade it.
In the game: Henry went 4-48 with a touchdown on 5 targets and 13 air yards, +5.46 EPA, 39 of the yards after the catch. The Jets did not suppress the tight end, and Brown's return did not reduce the middle-field looks.
The Jets are one of the few defenses that genuinely suppresses tight ends, and with A.J. Brown back the middle-field layer gets fewer looks than it did the last two weeks.
New York allows 8.42 fantasy points per game to tight ends, 5th fewest; Henry's targets have ranged 2-5 all season with a 64% snap share the last two weeks.
vs #11 pass EPA allowed and #5 against tight ends — the one position group where a stingy defense is a real signal; engine sits above the line, market near even.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: the Jets' front holds rushing value (6th in rush EPA) and their secondary takes away depth, so New England's yards come from the checkdown layer. Backfield yardage stays capped while catch counts rise.
All three rest on the same mechanism: New York runs few plays because its own penalties and third downs end drives, so neither the passing yardage nor the giveaway volume the market implies ever gets the attempts to arrive.
With Hall and Mitchell out, the touches concentrate: Allen takes every carry against a mid-tier run defense and Wilson takes the air yards against a corner room without Carlton Davis. Even on a short possession count both shares are near-total.
grade · 78
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.5 | 26 | +0.5 | |
| Pass yds | 224.8 | 235.0 | +10.2 | |
| Rush yds | 116.8 | 148.0 | +31.2 | |
| Pass att | 31.8 | 32 | +0.2 | |
| Carries | 28.1 | 36 | +7.9 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.0 | 19 | +1 | |
| Pass yds | 218.5 | 252.0 | +33.5 | |
| Rush yds | 96.9 | 97.0 | +0.1 | |
| Pass att | 30.9 | 30 | -0.9 | |
| Carries | 25.5 | 27 | +1.5 |
A B (0.781) built almost entirely on team-level accuracy: NYJ projected 18, scored 19; NE projected 25.5, scored 26; projected margin 7.5, actual 7. Pass attempts were nearly exact for both quarterbacks (Smith 30 vs 30.9, Maye 32 vs 31.8) and Jets rush yards landed on the nose (97 vs 96.9). The one flagged team miss is New England's carries — 36 against 28.1 — a pure product of leading for 2,975 of 3,600 seconds (62 of its 67 snaps came with a lead) rather than any read the engine got wrong about volume. Player score (0.734, 25 of 47 lines) carried the damage: Omar Cooper Jr. was projected 0.2 targets and caught 6 of 7 for 103, A.J. Brown was projected 0.5 targets and saw 10, and DeMario Douglas quadrupled his receiving line. The market line was the weak spot (0.667): the side and spread calls hit, the Under 43.5 lost by 1.5 points on a game that produced six field goals.
Pattern: An offense that moves between the 20s (field EPA +0.076 here, +0.196 at DET) and converts nothing at the goal line, behind a line that gives up pressure every week; a defense that holds rushing value and bends on explosives, with a blitz-heavy front that generates nothing (42.9% blitz, 0 sacks).
This week: New England had exactly the profile to cash it: league-best-ish 8.1 yards per attempt entering, a quarterback who took zero sacks against a 42.9% blitz rate, and the patience to run 36 times. It did not need chunks — one 42-yard shot, one 39-yarder and 29 short attempts.
What an opponent needs: A quarterback who beats the blitz without a clean pocket requirement (scrambles count — Maye's 3 for 25), one deep-shot receiver to punish the explosive-pass leak, and a back room deep enough to take 30+ carries while leading. A front that can win one-on-one without blitzing (Williams, Barmore, Ponder each had a TFL/sack) turns Jets drives negative.
Pattern: A team that wins by not needing many clean drives — explosive shots plus a checkdown layer and a three-man backfield — while leaking turnovers and yardage between the 20s, then holding at the goal line (opponents 0-for-3 here, 0-for-2 vs SEA, 0-for-1 vs PIT).
This week: The Jets had the blueprint handed to them — two NE fumbles, seven trips into NE territory — and could not execute: 3-for-11 on third down, 0-for-2 on fourth, 0 red-zone touchdowns. The efficiency simply wasn't there: season field EPA -0.04 and rush success 38.5%.
What an opponent needs: An offense that finishes — red-zone TD rate above the 0.576 league mark and short-yardage rushing above 4.3 YPC — plus a secondary that can convert the two giveaways NE hands out per game into points, not field goals. Teams that merely move the ball on NE will keep losing by a touchdown.
An offense with positive field EPA and a multi-week red-zone drought is a dog-cover/kicker machine, not a team-total play. The Jets gained 345 yards, covered +7.5, and scored zero touchdowns — four made field goals.
Trigger: Team with field EPA/play > 0 but 0 red-zone TDs in each of the last two or three weeks: fade anytime-TD and team-TD props, take the kicker's makes over, and treat the dog spread separately from the team total.
Don't build an Under on an offense's penalty rate suppressing its drive count. The Jets, at 5.2 flags and 2.8 pre-snap per game entering, committed 5 for 35 with 2 pre-snap and ran 61 plays; the game went over on 128 total snaps at a fast pace.
Trigger: Any total thesis whose mechanism is 'their flags end drives.' Pre-snap defensive flags persist faintly; an offense's do not. Price the drive count off plays and third downs instead.
A high-air-yards receiver returning from injury delivers targets, not yards. Brown played 76.5% of snaps, took 10 targets and 37.4% of NE's air yards, and produced 3-27 with -7.39 EPA.
Trigger: Limited-practice questionable WR, first game back, projected as the alpha: play targets/receptions overs cautiously but fade receiving-yards overs; the downstream beneficiary (Douglas 7-86, Henry 4-48) is the better side.
Committee backfield receiving roles are the least stable prop in the book. Stevenson was the modeled pass-down back and saw zero targets on 60.3% of snaps; NE backs combined for one target all day while Kiner took 11 carries.
Trigger: Three-man backfield with no 70%+ snap holder — avoid RB reception overs entirely and price rushing-yards unders off the carry split, not the depth chart.
A blitz-heavy defense that gets no sacks is a fake pass rush. The Jets sent extra rushers on 42.9% of NE's dropbacks (4.66 average rushers) and recorded zero sacks and four hits while allowing 3 TD passes.
Trigger: Defense with a blitz rate near 40% and a sack rate at or below league: back opposing QB passing-TD overs and fade the defense's implied stops, especially against a quarterback with scramble ability.
The short version
New England 26, New York 19 — a seven-point game under a 7.5-point line, so the Jets covered, and 45 total points cleared a 43.5 total that the projection had nailed to the decimal. The team totals could hardly have been better: 18 projected against 19 scored, 25.5 against 26. What the projection could not have known is how those points would be assembled. New York gained 349 yards, reached New England territory on seven of its ten real possessions, and scored no touchdowns inside the 20 — four Sanders field goals, two failed fourth downs in plus territory, and an offensive pass interference that erased a 14-yard touchdown in the first quarter. Its only touchdown came from 48 yards out. That is the whole margin.
How it unfolded
The Jets opened with a 13-play, 6:43 field-goal drive and then handed the game away in the next ten minutes: a two-sack series that lost 16 yards, a 53-yard punt wiped out by a player-out-of-bounds penalty giving New England the ball at the NYJ 42, and two plays later a 42-yard Maye-to-Doubs touchdown (+4.12 EPA) — on which Doubs was injured and essentially disappeared (2.9% snap share).
The second quarter was where New York actually lost it. Two drives of 51 and 58 yards ended on fourth down inside New England's half: Allen for one yard on 4th-and-2 at the NE 30 (-3.17 EPA), then Smith's sneak stuffed at the NE 39 on 4th-and-1 (-3.19). New England answered the second with an 11-play field-goal drive that converted its own 4th-and-1, then went 61 yards in 1:09 before the half for 17-3.
New York got it back to 13-17 — Cooper's 48-yard touchdown at Q3 10:32 and a field goal after Henderson's fumble at the NE 36 (-5.25 EPA, the game's biggest swing). The Patriots responded with a 12-play, 63-yard touchdown drive ending on Henry's 7-yarder, and when Smith threw his only interception at Q4 12:31 from a 10-point hole, the sequence was over. New England even gave the ball back again — Douglas fumbling after a 39-yard gain — and still closed it with a 12-play, 6:08 field-goal drive.
Why the game diverged from the projection
It barely did at the team level; the grade's only flagged miss is New England's 36 carries against 28.1, and that is script. The Patriots ran 62 of their 67 snaps with a lead and dropped to a 44.7% pass rate in the second half, with Kiner (11 carries, 57 yards, projected 3.7) collecting the surplus. The real divergence is inside the Jets' box score: the same 30 attempts, 33 more yards, and zero touchdowns from the three red-zone trips the model's league-constant TD split expects to produce roughly 1.7. Their field EPA was +0.076 on 52 snaps; inside the 20 it was -0.584 on nine. That is a finishing miss, not a movement miss — and their own season inputs (RZ EPA -0.216, 0-for-1 in each of weeks 4 and 5) pointed at it.
The plan against the game
The plan's shape was right and its mechanism was wrong in a specific, instructive way. It expected New England to lead and grind — it did, with the run lean confirmed at a 47.1% pass rate — and it expected the Jets' total to be capped. But it located the cap in pre-snap penalties and third downs ending drives. New York committed five flags for 35 yards with two pre-snap, against season rates of 5.2 and 2.8, and ran 61 plays at a pace the checks grade as fast (128 total snaps vs 121.5). The drives arrived; the touchdowns did not. That inversion took down the Smith yardage under, the Smith interception under (the pick came from a chasing script the plan said wouldn't materialize) and, by a point and a half, the Under. Four of ten calls hit, but the Stevenson structure calls were right for the right reasons and the Wilson miss was a role surprise — Cooper Jr., unpriced off IR, taking 7 targets for 103.
Player by player
Cooper is the headline: 82.3% of snaps, 6-103, the 48-yard score and the nullified one. Wilson fell to 6 targets and a 22.1% air-yards share, below Mason Taylor's 24.1%. Allen hit his number (17-78, four runs of 10+) but with -3.24 rush EPA and the failed fourth-down carry — chunk yardage without short-yardage reliability. On the other side, A.J. Brown's return produced 10 targets, 99 air yards and 3 catches for 27 with -7.39 EPA; Douglas (7-86-TD) and Henry (4-48-TD, 39 of it after the catch) ate what he left. Stevenson took 14 carries for 36 with three stuffs and, notably, zero targets on 60.3% of snaps.
The defenses
Charting here is box counts and rushers only — no coverage shells. The Jets blitzed on 42.9% of Maye's dropbacks (4.66 average rushers) and recorded zero sacks and four hits; Maye scrambled three times for 25 including a 21-yarder. That is the week-4 CHI profile again: pressure sent, nothing home, explosives allowed. New England's front needed less help — three sacks and six hits on 33 dropbacks (27.3%) against a 31.4% blitz rate, with Williams, Barmore and Ponder each getting one home at a drive-ending moment. New England's secondary gave up the field and held at the 20: opponents are now 0-for-3 here, 0-for-2 vs SEA, 0-for-1 vs PIT inside it.
The blueprint
To beat the Jets you do not need efficiency between the 20s — you need one or two shots over a secondary that has conceded explosive passes in four straight weeks, a quarterback who survives the blitz without a clean pocket, and enough backfield depth to take 30+ carries once ahead. To beat New England you need to finish: they hand out two turnovers a game and seven trips into their territory, and they have now watched three opponents turn that into field goals. Moving the ball on them is not the blueprint; converting is, and the Jets' own red-zone numbers said they couldn't.
What the model should take from this
Three things. The Jets' red-zone drought is now three weeks old and deserves weight the league-constant TD split won't give it — their team total will keep landing while their touchdown props keep failing. Their penalty profile should stop carrying any drive-count implication; it did not show up and it barely persists anyway. And New England's backfield should be priced as lead-dependent carries with no receiving role at all: one target to three backs over 67 snaps is not a sample artifact, it is the design.
Jets offenseagainst thePatriots defense
Projected NYJ offense output — equivalently, what the NE defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 20(17) | 76(78) | 0.6(0) | 3.3(2) | 2.2(2) | 5(26) | 0(0) |
| RB | 1(7) | 2(16) | 0(0) | 0.7(1) | 0.5(1) | 4(10) | 0(0) |
| RBO | no projected volume | ||||||
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 9.7(6) | 5.9(4) | 83(44) | 0.5(0) |
| WR | 4.0(0) | 2.8(0) | 53(0) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 1.2(3) | 0.8(1) | 12(15) | 0.1(0) |
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEQ | 4.8(3) | 3.2(1) | 17(12) | 0.1(0) |
| TE | 2.8(6) | 1.9(4) | 15(33) | 0.1(0) |
| TE | 1.1(1) | 0.7(1) | 8(9) | 0(0) |
| TE | 1.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 0 |
NYJ offenserank of 32NE defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 59.0: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 58%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NYJ offenserank of 32NE defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.80: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NYJ offenserank of 32NE defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.07: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 67%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 7.9%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.5%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Patriots offenseagainst theJets defense
Projected NE offense output — equivalently, what the NYJ defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 10(14) | 39(36) | 0.3(0) | 3.6(0) | 2.7(0) | 18(0) | 0.1(0) |
| RBQ | 9(7) | 31(31) | 0.3(0) | 1.0(1) | 0.7(1) | 4(9) | 0(0) |
| RB | 4(11) | 17(57) | 0.1(0) | 0.5(0) | 0.3(0) | 3(0) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 5.0 | 3.2 | 46 | 0.4 |
| WR | 4.7(1) | 3.0(1) | 36(42) | 0.3(1) |
| WR | 4.2(8) | 2.8(7) | 24(86) | 0.2(1) |
| WR | 2.3(1) | 1.4(1) | 20(12) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 3.1(1) | 2.2(0) | 17(0) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 3.9(5) | 2.7(4) | 24(48) | 0.2(1) |
| TE | 2.2(3) | 1.5(1) | 13(11) | 0.1(0) |
NE offenserank of 32NYJ defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 62.2: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 55%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NE offenserank of 32NYJ defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.16: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
NE offenserank of 32NYJ defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.07: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 65%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 6.8%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.1%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.