The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:52 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 11:53 AM Tampa walls off the run. Warren eats on checkdowns, Rodgers gets a clean pocket. script partly held 6 hit5 missed projection B · 70 open
Tampa's front takes away the run, so Pittsburgh's yards arrive through the air and Warren's targets; Irving is the Bucs' only lane in a low-scoring, field-goal-flavored game.
Pittsburgh wants to run and cannot: Tampa is second in yards per carry allowed and fifth in rush EPA allowed, which pushes Rodgers toward the high-30s attempt range he has hit every time this team has been forced to throw. Tampa gives that up safely, though — no pass rush and a secondary missing Winfield means clean pockets but also few sacks and few giveaways. Tampa answers by running Irving at a Pittsburgh front that ranks 23rd in rush EPA allowed, holding the ball and keeping the game inside one score. Points come in mixed currency: Tampa stalls at Pittsburgh's 20 (50% TD rate allowed on trips, 7th), while Pittsburgh converts its trips against a Tampa unit 21st in red-zone TD rate allowed. Expect a two-score-or-less game in the 17–24 band per side.
Pittsburgh 26, Tampa Bay 19 in overtime: the Steelers covered -2.5 and the game blew through a 38.5 total only because regulation ended 19-19 (exactly 38) and Rodgers' 6-yard touchdown to Bernard in OT added seven. The projection nailed both team totals and both rushing numbers and badly missed the volume — 149 plays, 92 pass attempts — because Tampa's offense never finished a drive and Pittsburgh spent 57 of 76 snaps trailing.
The plan read the Pittsburgh half of this game almost perfectly in shape — Rodgers threw, the yards came short and after the catch, Warren's rushing was capped, Metcalf ate the air yards — and the parlay built on that mechanism went 3-for-3. It missed the Tampa half entirely, and missed it on the mechanism, not the bounce: the plan's central premise that Tampa's front erases the run while generating no pressure got exactly inverted (Pittsburgh ran for 4.0 a carry with 3 explosives; Tampa blitzed 47.3% for 5 sacks and 10 hits), and the prescribed Tampa script of Irving at 18-22 carries with Daniels under 30 attempts collapsed into 43 attempts and 46 rushing yards. The Otton and Irving calls failed because Tampa's offense failed, which is a read miss; the Egbuka under failed while its efficiency logic held exactly (7-of-16, -11.48 EPA, both picks his way), which is a line-placement issue, not a reasoning one. The plan also correctly flagged Pittsburgh's red-zone defense as the sevens-versus-threes lever, and that is what held Tampa to 19.
The script: The favorite's path is what happened: Pittsburgh threw 49 times at a 68.4% pass rate (checks: lean called pass, actual pass, 0.711 vs a 0.647 season rate), lived on Warren-and-underneath volume plus one Metcalf conversion, converted 2 of 4 red-zone trips, and won while Tampa kicked four field goals on two red-zone trips. But the mechanism that was supposed to produce it broke twice: Pittsburgh threw because it trailed by 13, not because the run was erased (22 carries, 89 yards, 4.0 a carry, 3 explosive runs), and Tampa's 'pressure-less front' produced 5 sacks and 10 QB hits. Tampa's own lean broke outright — called run, played pass at 65.8% against a 55.3% season rate — and the pace call broke too (149 plays vs 121.5 league, in overtime).
Expected: 35-38 dropbacks at a pass rate nearer 65% than the blended 59%, Warren at 13-16 carries for a poor per-carry number but 6 targets, Metcalf the air-yards share and Bernard a near-starter's volume. Yards from YAC, points from converted trips rather than long touchdown drives.
Happened: Expected 35-38 dropbacks near a 65% pass rate; got 52 dropbacks at 68.4%, Warren at 14 carries, Metcalf with a 68.6% air-yards share, Bernard at 93.7% snaps, 152 YAC and points from converted trips (2 of 4) rather than long touchdowns. The only break is the attempt count overshooting the plan's own range.
Expected: 26-31 attempts at a short aDOT with 18-22 Irving carries, a pass rate near 50%, Otton and Godwin as the volume underneath, and points arriving as a mix of one or two short touchdowns and kicks.
Happened: Expected 26-31 attempts with 18-22 Irving carries at a ~50% pass rate with Otton and Godwin underneath; got 43 attempts at 70.3% pass, Irving 19 for 46, Otton 2 targets for 4 yards, and Egbuka absorbing 16 targets for 48 yards.
Pittsburgh wants to run and cannot: Tampa is second in yards per carry allowed and fifth in rush EPA allowed, which pushes Rodgers toward the high-30s attempt range he has hit every time this team has been forced to throw. Tampa gives that up safely, though — no pass rush and a secondary missing Winfield means clean pockets but also few sacks and few giveaways. Tampa answers by running Irving at a Pittsburgh front that ranks 23rd in rush EPA allowed, holding the ball and keeping the game inside one score. Points come in mixed currency: Tampa stalls at Pittsburgh's 20 (50% TD rate allowed on trips, 7th), while Pittsburgh converts its trips against a Tampa unit 21st in red-zone TD rate allowed. Expect a two-score-or-less game in the 17–24 band per side.
Pittsburgh accepts the run is dead, throws 35+ at a pressure-less front, and lives on Warren's checkdowns, Freiermuth/Washington underneath and one Metcalf shot — then converts its red-zone trips while Tampa settles for kicks.
Tampa wins the possession battle: Irving at 18-22 carries, Daniels under 30 attempts at a short aDOT, a long drive or two and a short field off a Rodgers giveaway, with the Bucs ahead late and the pass rate under 50%.
The read
A 38.5-total game between two offenses that move the ball in opposite ways and neither of which finishes cleanly. Tampa's defense is the second-stingiest in the league in yards per carry allowed and fifth in rush EPA allowed (72.8 rush yards per game, 2nd) — it takes away the exact thing Pittsburgh wanted to lean on — but it generates the least pressure in the league (10.1%, 31st). So Pittsburgh gets a clean pocket and a dead ground game: more dropbacks than the blend assumes, yards from YAC and checkdowns, and a back whose production shifts from carries to catches. Tampa's own path is the mirror: a rookie quarterback at a 4.2–4.4 aDOT who cannot throw past the sticks, running at a Pittsburgh front that ranks 23rd in rush EPA allowed — but Pittsburgh holds at its own 20 (50% red-zone TD rate allowed, 7th), which turns Tampa drives into kicks.
Why
Pittsburgh's blended yards per carry falls to 3.6 against this front; its own season rate is 4.69. Every week that Pittsburgh has been taken out of the run it has thrown 39–40 times, and our week-4 review's lesson was explicit: price Rodgers' volume off the team's 64.7% pass rate, not the blend. Tampa has no pass rush to punish it and is without Winfield (ruled out Friday, Rotowire) with Morrison doubtful. On the other side, Tampa ran 39 times for 241 in week 5 and passed on 44.3% while ahead; Irving is the only lane and, with Tucker not expected to play (Rapoport via Rotowire, Sunday), he keeps the short-yardage work too.
What would change it
Freiermuth's calf — Pittsburgh is "optimistic" (Rapoport, Sunday morning) but a late scratch pushes targets to Washington and Bernard. Dowdle is expected back in a complementary role (Fowler, Sunday), which trims Warren's carry ceiling but not his routes. If Tampa's pre-snap flags (2.2 per game) put Daniels in long down-and-distance, his run lean collapses and the script flips to a chasing offense that cannot throw deep. Prices here are Kalshi's and thin.
A 61-play, 64.7% pass offense that gains between the 20s without separating: 6.63 yards per attempt against a 7.02 league mark, field EPA -0.027, and three straight 24+ point games built on YAC (158 in week 3) and explosive passing (tagged in weeks 3, 4 and 5).
Short and intermediate throws with run-after-catch to Warren, Freiermuth and Washington, one vertical shot per quarter to Metcalf, and a red-zone rate that has climbed to 2-of-3 and 2-of-2 in the last two weeks after stalling early.
Interior pressure (4 sacks at New England, 5 at Cleveland), third down (5-of-28 in weeks 1-2), and its own flags — 3.8 per game with 1.6 pre-snap, including holds that erased an 87-yard run in week 3.
Tampa takes the run away outright — 3.279 yards per carry allowed (2nd), 5th in rush EPA, 72.8 rush yards per game (2nd) — but cannot generate the pressure that has broken this offense, ranking 31st at 10.1% and tagged 'no pass rush' in four of five weeks. Tampa holds the field (11th in EPA allowed between the 20s) but concedes touchdowns once you get inside: 63.6% of trips, 21st.
Pittman and Wilson are on IR and Skowronek is out, leaving Bernard as the full-time WR2 behind Metcalf, who was cleared Saturday (Schefter/Rotowire) after an illness. Freiermuth is questionable with a calf added late Saturday, with the team optimistic (Rapoport, Sunday 6:09 AM); Washington and Tonyan absorb his snaps if not. Dowdle is slated to play in a complementary role (Fowler, Sunday 5:12 AM). Tampa's defense is without Winfield (87% of snaps), with Morrison doubtful and Trotter — their highest-rated linebacker — questionable.
35-38 dropbacks at a pass rate nearer 65% than the blended 59%, Warren at 13-16 carries for a poor per-carry number but 6 targets, Metcalf the air-yards share and Bernard a near-starter's volume. Yards from YAC, points from converted trips rather than long touchdown drives.
With Daniels under center this is a run-first, short-passing team: 4.2 and 4.4 aDOT in his two starts, 27 and 25 attempts, a 44.3% pass rate in week 5, and 39 carries for 241 yards against Dallas. Field EPA -0.145 on the season is the worst number in this game.
Long possessions, Irving on the ground, checkdowns and jet-sweep usage near the goal line — three of their four week-5 touchdowns came from the run or from inside 10 yards.
Its own flags (5.0 per game, 2.2 pre-snap, 14 against Dallas), sacks on third down (16 in four Mayfield-era games) and red-zone stalls in weeks 1-3 (3 TDs on 10 trips).
Pittsburgh is the softer run front here — 23rd in rush EPA allowed, 4.039 yards per carry, 103.4 rush yards per game — and its pressure rate (14%, 22nd) is not the four-man wrecking crew that broke Mayfield in Minnesota. What Pittsburgh does do is hold at its own 20: 50% red-zone TD rate allowed, 7th, with a 14th-ranked red-zone EPA. Pittsburgh leaks explosive passes every single week, but a 4.3-aDOT quarterback is the one profile that can't collect them.
Tucker (quad) is not expected to play per Rapoport on Sunday morning, which hands Irving the short-yardage and goal-line work with Gainwell as the passing-down back; Josh Williams was elevated as the No. 3. Mayfield remains out (thumb), with optimism for week 7. Pittsburgh's secondary is thinned by Elliott being ruled out and Ramsey (wrist) and Dean (ankle) both questionable.
26-31 attempts at a short aDOT with 18-22 Irving carries, a pass rate near 50%, Otton and Godwin as the volume underneath, and points arriving as a mix of one or two short touchdowns and kicks.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: The over cashed at 28 yards, but on 4 targets and 4 air yards, not the checkdown volume the plan described; Tampa's linebackers were never attacked — the targets went to Metcalf (15) and Bernard (12).
When this offense can't run it throws at the back, and Tampa's linebackers have been the soft spot underneath all year. Trotter, their best cover man there, is questionable.
27, 34, 49, 33 and 87 receiving yards with 6, 4, 4, 6, 6 targets; our week-2 TB report charted Anzalone allowing 102 yards on three catches with two missed tackles.
vs #17 pass EPA (mid); the line sits far below the model's mean and Kalshi's own price implies barely better than a coin flip, which is the gap — it prices his usual carry-share role, not a throwing script.
In the game: 78 combined yards against 89.5. His carries were capped as planned (14-50) but the receiving work that was supposed to replace them never came — 2 catches, 28 yards on 52 team dropbacks.
Tampa's front erases his carries but can't touch the quarterback, so his production moves to routes and checkdowns. The combined market is the script-proof version of his workload.
Combined totals of 176, 126 and 188 over the last three weeks on 87-97% snap shares; 6 targets in three of five games; our week-4 review had this exact call cash at 126 when the carries disappeared.
Rushing half vs #5 rush EPA, receiving half vs #18 pass EPA and a TB unit tagged 'no pass rush' four of five weeks; the model's mean sits well above his line, and combined-yardage calls are 61% on the season record.
In the game: 2 targets, 1 catch, 4 yards at 100% snap share. The premise that a short-aDOT passer feeds the tight end first was wrong in the most direct way: Daniels' -4 air yards to Otton versus 136 air yards at Egbuka.
The most stable target in this offense regardless of quarterback, and a short-aDOT passer feeds the tight end first. His line is set near the bottom of his weekly range.
4-6 targets in every game on 89-98% snap shares; 26, 38, 56, 37 and 25 receiving yards — four of five clear this rung.
vs #17 pass EPA, with PIT 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends; the model's mean is well above the line and Kalshi's price is more conservative than his own game log.
In the game: 46 yards on 19 carries with 5 stuffs and -6.28 rush EPA. Pittsburgh's front, rated the softer half of the matchup, held the middle to 4 carries for -4 yards; Tampa's run plan was dead by the third quarter.
He is the only lane Tampa has with a rookie throwing at four yards downfield, and Pittsburgh's front is the softer half of this game. Tucker's likely absence keeps every short-yardage carry his.
21 carries for 165 at Dallas and 16-17 in each of weeks 2-4; Tampa ran 39 times in his last outing at a 44.3% pass rate; PIT has allowed 4.039 yards per carry and 103.4 rush yards a game.
vs #23 rush EPA allowed — the soft band where overs have run 53% on the season record; the model is above his line and Kalshi is slightly below it, and the market mean looks priced for a chasing Tampa script.
In the game: 253 yards clears 224.5, and the attempt volume (49) arrived — but not from the absent pass rush the plan cited. Rodgers was sacked 5 times and hit 10 against a 47.3% blitz rate, and the attempts came from trailing by 13, plus an overtime possession.
The one defense trait that has broken him — four-man pressure — is absent here, while the run he'd rather lean on is gone. That combination pushes his attempts toward the high-30s he hits whenever Pittsburgh can't run.
40, 39, 34, 40 and 31 attempts; 292, 299 and 235 yards the last three weeks; Tampa generates 10.1% pressure and has allowed clean pockets to Cleveland and Green Bay with 0.307 and 0.230 EPA per dropback.
vs #18 pass EPA, with Winfield out and Morrison doubtful; the model sits essentially on his line and Kalshi barely above it — both price the blended 59% pass rate, not the 64.7% team rate our week-4 review said to use.
In the game: 93 yards on 15 targets confirms the target-concentration logic with Pittman, Wilson and Skowronek out (68.6% air-yards share), but the 'deep shots develop' half broke — 0-for-2 on deep throws, 41 YAC, longest a 20-yard crosser.
Pittman, Wilson and Skowronek are all gone, so the air yards have nowhere else to go, and he was cleared Saturday. A pressure-less front lets the deep shots actually develop.
9-10 targets in three of five weeks, 115 yards on 9 targets at Cleveland; Wilson, who took 6 looks a week, went to IR Saturday and Pittman is already there.
vs #18 pass EPA with TB missing its starting safety and likely its top outside corner; the model's mean sits right on the line and Kalshi marginally over — neither has repriced a WR room down to two receivers.
In the game: 24 combined yards on 14.9% of snaps: 2 carries for 17, one catch for 7 at -6 air yards. Exactly the sub-45% passing-down role the plan described.
A sub-45% snap passing-down back whose targets come behind the line of scrimmage, in a game Tampa wants to grind with its starter. The touches aren't there.
28, 27, 10, 15 and 25 combined yards across five weeks; 3-5 carries a game behind Irving, with four week-5 targets at minus-27 air yards.
Rushing half vs #23 rush EPA; the model's mean sits roughly ten yards below this line while Kalshi prices it near a coin flip — that gap is the call, and the same under cashed in week 5.
In the game: 11 catches on 12 targets. He was not the third read — at 93.7% snaps he was the quick-game outlet against blitz, with 69 of his 87 yards after the catch and the overtime touchdown.
The expanded role is real but this rung asks for a career-level catch count from a rookie who is the third read behind Metcalf, Warren and the tight ends.
Catches of 4, 1, 2 and 6 across four appearances; his one big week came on 9 targets against Indianapolis with 92% snaps.
vs #18 pass EPA; the model projects him under this number and Kalshi prices the over below even money — the case is that Pittsburgh's target tree still runs through the back and tight ends.
In the game: 3 receiving yards on 3 targets at -9 air yards — precisely the behind-the-line checkdown profile the plan described, even though Gainwell barely played (14.9% snaps).
Gainwell owns the passing-down snaps and this quarterback's checkdowns go at or behind the line. Irving's value is carries, not routes.
12, 0 and 10 receiving yards the last three weeks, with zero targets against Green Bay; 3 targets at Dallas for 10 yards.
vs #17 pass EPA; the model's mean is below the line and Kalshi's price is below it too — the agreement is on the role, and the volume case for the under is the receiving work going to Gainwell.
In the game: The efficiency read was right to the decimal — 7 of 16 for 48 yards, 136 air yards, -11.48 EPA, both interceptions his way — but 16 targets is twice the projection and raw volume carried him past 39.5.
With this quarterback Tampa's receiving market is a catch market, not a yardage market — his air yards arrive on incompletions and his catches come at the sticks. Efficiency call.
13 and 38 yards in Daniels' two starts on 4 and 9 targets at 89-94% snaps; team aDOT 4.2 and 4.4; the same call cashed at 38 in week 5.
vs #17 pass EPA, with PIT 6th in fantasy points allowed to receivers; the model sits right on the line and Kalshi slightly under it — both are carrying Mayfield-era yardage into a short-throw offense.
In the game: 50 rushing yards cashes the under, and Dowdle did take 7 carries. But Tampa's front was not the reason: Pittsburgh as a team averaged 4.0 a carry with 3 explosive runs; Warren simply ran it only 14 times in a trailing script.
This is the toughest front in the league to run at by yards allowed, and Dowdle is back to take short-yardage work. Warren's yards come through the air this week, not on the ground.
Tampa allows 3.279 yards per carry and 72.8 rush yards per game; Pittsburgh's own 4.69 blends down to 3.6; Dowdle expected to play in a complementary role (Fowler, Sunday).
vs #5 rush EPA, #2 in yards per carry allowed; the model's mean sits above the line, which is the known blind spot — projections under-respond to run defenses. Note the record: unders vs top-10 defenses are 43% this season, so size it accordingly.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One mechanism: Tampa's front kills the ground game while generating no pressure, so carries convert into dropbacks and Warren's yards arrive as checkdowns. All three legs move together off the same script.
A run-leaning Tampa with a short-aDOT passer feeds Irving and the tight end while capping the outside receiver's yardage; the same low pass rate that fuels Irving is what starves Egbuka.
grade · 70
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.0 | 19 | +1 | |
| Pass yds | 207.8 | 164.0 | -43.8 | |
| Rush yds | 111.5 | 102.0 | -9.5 | |
| Pass att | 30.7 | 43 | +12.3 | |
| Carries | 26.6 | 25 | -1.6 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 26 | +5.5 | |
| Pass yds | 221.8 | 253.0 | +31.2 | |
| Rush yds | 87.2 | 89.0 | +1.8 | |
| Pass att | 32.8 | 49 | +16.2 | |
| Carries | 24.1 | 22 | -2.1 |
A B (0.696) that reads better on scoring than on volume: PIT 26 vs 20.5 projected, TB 19 vs 18.0, rush yards 89 vs 87.2 and 102 vs 111.5 — four of the ten team lines inside a score of 0.85 or better. Both pass-attempt lines graded as big misses (PIT 49 vs 32.8, TB 43 vs 30.7) and both have the same root: an overtime game at 149 total plays against a 121.5 league two-team baseline, with Pittsburgh behind by 13 for most of three quarters and Tampa throwing 68% of the time while LEADING. The player score (0.656, 17 of 42) was dragged down by the receiving distribution rather than the totals — Metcalf and Bernard combined for 27 targets, 22 catches and 180 yards against 12.1 projected targets, while Freiermuth (3 targets) and Otton (2) vanished. The market calls went 2-of-3: winner and spread right, Under 38.5 lost on the overtime touchdown. Nothing in the efficiency inputs was wrong; the plays-per-game input was.
Pattern: Pittsburgh beats itself on early downs and third downs, then is vulnerable to one team of chunk throws it can't stop. The defense is bend-don't-break at the goal line — tagged that way in week 5 and again today: Tampa had 74 snaps and only two red-zone trips, one touchdown.
This week: Tampa had the blueprint available — PIT allows explosives weekly — and could not execute it: 2-of-5 on deep attempts, 6.3 aDOT, -0.277 field EPA. The pass-rush half of the blueprint, though, they did execute, by blitzing Rodgers on nearly half his dropbacks for 5 sacks and 10 hits.
What an opponent needs: A quarterback who will throw past 10 air yards with accuracy (Pittsburgh's defense has surrendered 3+ explosives in four of six games) plus a blitz package, because Rodgers at a 4.1 aDOT will take the short completion all day and the sacks have to be manufactured. A grinding, short-passing team will move and stall.
Pattern: A 1-4 team that loses close games the same way: it cannot sustain between the 20s, converts a third of its third downs, and gives the ball away twice a game. The defense is respectable on EPA but cannot pressure without sending extra and will cough up the run when the box is light.
This week: Pittsburgh exploited the turnover half directly — two interceptions produced 10 of its 26 points — and did enough on the ground (3 explosive runs, Dowdle 5.7 YPC) to stay on schedule. It did not need to beat the pass rush; it absorbed 5 sacks and still ran 76 plays and held the ball 38:28.
What an opponent needs: To cash this blueprint you need a defense with ball-hawking corners against short throws (Dean 6 PD and an INT, Everette an INT off a Heyward hit) and an offense willing to sustain 8-12 play drives — Tampa's defense held PIT to -0.184 field EPA and still lost because it was on the field for 38 minutes. A big-play offense won't be punished; a possession offense will win.
Regulation ended exactly 19-19 — 38 on a 38.5 total. The Under was a winner for 60 minutes and died on a 12-play, 6:45 overtime drive. In games projected under 40 between two low-field-EPA offenses, the overtime tail is a real share of the loss distribution; price it, and prefer regulation-only totals where offered.
Trigger: Projected total under 40 with both offenses below 0.0 field EPA/play and a combined red-zone trip expectation under 6.
A 'no pass rush' tag on a defense is not a protection-friendly matchup when the quarterback has zero scramble ability. Tampa had 0-3 sacks in four prior weeks, then blitzed 47.3% and got 5 sacks and 10 hits on Rodgers (0 scrambles all game).
Trigger: Low-sack-rate defense facing a statue quarterback — fade QB passing-yard overs priced purely on 'clean pocket' logic, and look at sack/interception props instead.
Short-aDOT offenses make receiving yardage a target-count market, not an efficiency market. Egbuka went over 39.5 with 7-of-16 for 48 yards and -11.48 EPA; Bernard turned 12 targets into 11 catches and 87 yards with 69 of them after the catch while projected for 3.3 catches.
Trigger: Team aDOT under 5.0 plus a receiver with a 90%+ snap share — buy receptions and yardage overs on volume even when the quarterback is inaccurate.
Checkdown-back receiving props do not automatically follow a 49-attempt game. Warren saw just 4 targets (4 air yards) on 52 dropbacks because the targets concentrated in two depleted-room wideouts.
Trigger: When a team is down to two healthy receivers, route-share concentration beats the 'they'll throw at the back' script — check the WR room's inactives before buying RB receiving.
Two injury-thinned secondaries plus a trailing favorite is a plays-per-game shock, not a points shock. The model's team totals were nearly perfect (26/20.5, 19/18) while both attempt projections graded as big misses.
Trigger: Any game where the favorite is projected to lead but the model's play count sits below 61 — fade the volume projections, trust the scoring ones.
The short version
Pittsburgh won 26-19 in overtime, covered -2.5, and sent a 38.5 total over by exactly the margin of the overtime touchdown — regulation finished 19-19, which is 38. The model's team totals were close to perfect (26 vs 20.5, 19 vs 18.0) and so were both rushing lines; what it could not see was 149 plays, 92 pass attempts and a game in which one team's quarterback threw for 164 yards on 43 attempts and the other threw for 253 on 49 with no completion longer than 22.
How it unfolded
Tampa built its lead on Pittsburgh's mistakes and a flag. Rodgers was intercepted by A'Shawn Robinson on the Steelers' second possession (Q1 10:51, -5.32 EPA), handing the Bucs the ball at the PIT 39 and three points. Everette's 22-yard DPI at the start of the second quarter put Tampa in scoring range on the drive that ended with Daniels' 2-yard touchdown to Egbuka at 14:55 — free yards that never show in the box score. By 4:12 of the second it was 13-0, and a Boswell 52-yarder as the half expired was all Pittsburgh had for 30 minutes of football.
Tampa's third quarter is the game in miniature: a 16-play, 70-yard, 9:02 drive that produced three points, 16-3. That is a two-possession lead that should have been three. Pittsburgh then went 9 plays and 53 yards for a touchdown (Washington, Q4 13:53), Everette intercepted Daniels 34 seconds later, and the Steelers ground back in field goals — a 39-yarder, then a 58-yarder at the two-minute warning to tie. Jamel Dean's interception at Q4 1:46, returned 40 yards to the TB 3 (-6.89 EPA, -0.45 WPA), looked decisive until McLaughlin answered from 53 with 13 seconds left. In overtime Pittsburgh went 12 plays and 70 yards in 6:45, rescued on 3rd-and-13 by a 20-yard Metcalf crosser, and Bernard caught the winner from six yards.
Why the game diverged from the projection
Two mechanisms, both volume. Pittsburgh spent 57 of 76 snaps trailing and threw 70.2% of the time in that state against an engine blend of 58.7%; overtime added a dozen more plays. Tampa's divergence is more interesting and more useful: it led for 3,055 game-seconds and passed 68.1% of 47 snaps while ahead, because Irving was being buried (19 carries, 46 yards, 5 stuffs, -6.28 rush EPA, and 4 middle runs for -4 yards). The engine's 55.1% blended pass rate was a fair read of Tampa's season; the game it was handed had no running game in it.
The scoring projections survived all of that because the efficiency inputs were right. Pittsburgh's field EPA was -0.184 and Tampa's -0.277; neither offense could sustain. Eight field goals and two touchdowns is what that produces.
The plan against the game
The plan's Pittsburgh half was close to a clean read — pass lean confirmed (71.1% dropback rate vs a 64.7% season rate), Warren's rushing capped, Metcalf fed, the yards from YAC, the points from converted trips — and the three-leg parlay built on it cashed in full. The Tampa half inverted. The premise was that Tampa's front erases the run while never touching the quarterback; instead Pittsburgh ran for 4.0 a carry with three explosive runs, and Tampa blitzed 47.3% of Rodgers' dropbacks for five sacks and ten hits. That is why Irving and Otton missed: not variance, a mis-sorted matchup. The Egbuka under is the opposite case — the efficiency logic held exactly (7-of-16, -11.48 EPA, both picks thrown his way), and 16 targets beat it anyway.
Player by player
Metcalf and Bernard were the game. Twenty-seven targets, 22 catches, 180 yards and the winning touchdown between them, against 12.1 projected targets. With Pittman, Wilson and Skowronek unavailable there was nowhere else for the ball to go, and Rodgers' 4.1 aDOT turned that concentration into a catch-and-run market: 152 team YAC, zero completions of 20+ yards. Warren got the carries (14) and almost none of the routes (4 targets, 4 air yards), which is the inverse of what a 52-dropback game normally yields and the single most instructive prop result here. Dowdle, back from the toe, out-produced him per touch (7-40, two 10+ runs).
On Tampa's side Otton played every snap for two targets at negative air yards. Egbuka got 16 targets and -11.48 EPA. Daniels' -15.0 cpoe is the number to carry: 22-of-43 at a 6.3 aDOT, with the four scrambles (39 yards, including a 4th-and-9 conversion in overtime) the only part of his line that threatened anybody.
The defenses
Charting for pressure and coverage has not landed, so read the proxies. Pittsburgh's pass rush produced 5 sacks and 9 hits at a modest 26.4% opponent blitz rate — Ramsey had two sacks and four TFL, Herbig two sacks and three TFL, with Heyward forcing the Everette interception. That is a front getting home without help, which is more than the season rate (14% pressure) suggested. Tampa's rush was the opposite: it needed a 47.3% blitz rate to collect five sacks, which worked against a quarterback with zero scrambles but left 33 completions underneath.
In the red zone Pittsburgh was again the bend-don't-break unit tagged in week 5: Tampa made two trips in 74 plays and scored once. But the binding constraint on Tampa was earlier — it never got there.
What the model should take from this
The play-count input is the weak link, not the efficiency inputs. The same projection that missed both attempt lines by double digits got both team totals, both rushing yardages and the side and spread correct. Where plays are projected below 61 for a favorite the model expects to lead, discount the volume projections and keep the scoring ones.
Second, target distribution with a decimated receiver room needs a stronger prior. The engine gave Bernard 5.0 targets and he saw 12 on a 93.7% snap share; Metcalf's 7.1 became 15. The air-yards share (68.6% for Metcalf) is the kind of concentration that should be forecastable from the inactive list alone.
Third: 'no pass rush' as a defensive tag has a mobility condition on it. And finally, the Under on a 38.5 total was alive for 60 minutes. In low-total games between two sub-zero field-EPA offenses, the overtime tail is a live share of the loss distribution.
Steelers offenseagainst theBuccaneers defense
Projected PIT offense output — equivalently, what the TB defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 15(14) | 68(50) | 0.4(0) | 5.8(4) | 4.5(2) | 53(28) | 0.4(0) |
| RBQ | 4(7) | 10(40) | 0.1(0) | 1.6(4) | 1.2(3) | 9(9) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 1(0) | 2(0) | 0(0) | 0(0) | 0(0) | 0(0) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRDNP | 7.1(15) | 4.2(11) | 44(93) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 5.0(12) | 3.3(11) | 37(87) | 0.3(1) |
| WR | 3.6 | 2.4 | 20 | 0.1 |
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEQ | 5.6(3) | 4.0(2) | 34(11) | 0.3(0) |
| TE | 3.6(6) | 2.5(4) | 24(25) | 0.2(1) |
PIT offenserank of 32TB defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 59.7: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 59%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 59%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
PIT offenserank of 32TB defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.61: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
PIT offenserank of 32TB defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.75: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 60%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 6.2%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.2%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Buccaneers offenseagainst theSteelers defense
Projected TB offense output — equivalently, what the PIT defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 16(19) | 76(46) | 0.6(0) | 3.3(3) | 2.6(2) | 11(3) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 4(2) | 6(17) | 0(0) | 3.6(1) | 2.7(1) | 14(7) | 0.1(0) |
| RBQ | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRFP | 5.0(8) | 3.6(4) | 41(37) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 7.4(16) | 4.1(7) | 40(48) | 0.2(1) |
| WR | 2.0(3) | 1.3(2) | 35(7) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 2.9(6) | 1.8(3) | 26(40) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 5.6(2) | 3.8(1) | 39(4) | 0.2(0) |
TB offenserank of 32PIT defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 60.4: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 55%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 56%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
TB offenserank of 32PIT defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.19: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
TB offenserank of 32PIT defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.76: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 64%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 7.7%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.6%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.