The plan against the game · plan Thu Oct 15, 11:29 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 12:01 PM Seattle's front buries Denver's run. Nix throws short all night and nowhere. script partly held 6 hit3 missed projection C · 57 open
Seattle grinds on the league's softest run front while Denver checks down into a wall; the lever is whether Denver can even reach the red zone, where Seattle breaks.
Expect a slow, possession-poor game in the low 40s. Seattle leans on the run because Denver's front is the softest unit on the field, builds a one-score lead, and asks Darnold for 30-ish attempts at a high yards-per-attempt against a secondary without Surtain and Hufanga. Denver moves underneath, converts third downs, and then runs out of field: Seattle has allowed the fewest yards per attempt in the league and the best between-the-20s EPA. Denver's scoring comes in bursts if it reaches the red zone, where Seattle has been the league's softest finisher.
Denver 17, Seattle 14 in overtime: the Broncos covered as 2.5-point home dogs and the game stayed under 40.5 despite 139 plays, because Seattle ran 82 snaps for one red-zone trip and handed the ball over three times — the last, Darnold's overtime interception at the Seattle 43, set up Lutz's winning 53-yarder.
The plan read the two defenses correctly and all three Denver-side unders cashed with their mechanisms intact — Nix was capped at 107, Waddle and Sutton combined for 43 on their air-yard shares, and Dobbins was stuffed at 2.4 a carry. What it got wrong was the script that connected the Seattle calls: it assumed Seattle builds a lead and runs, and Seattle never led after Q1, so Wilson's carries and Holani's touches never came while Darnold threw 51 times. That inverted both leans and the pace call (139 plays, not slow), and turned the Kupp under into a loss on a script-driven 10 targets. The underdog path it wrote — Darnold giveaways, a short field, Denver finishing its red-zone trips, final score near 20-19 — is almost exactly the game that happened, so the misses were the script branch, not the read.
The script: The underdog path as written: Darnold gave it away three times (fumble forced at the DEN 30 in Q2, interceptions at the DEN 39 at Q4 1:31 and at the SEA 43 in OT), Denver converted both of its red-zone trips into touchdowns against the league's softest goal-line defense, and Seattle was made to throw — 51 attempts, 71.4% pass rate while trailing. But the mechanisms around it broke: checks has pace 'fast' (139 plays against 121.5 league) rather than slow, Seattle's lean inverted (68.3% pass against a 52.9% season rate) and Denver's inverted the other way (50.9% pass against 58.5%) because the Broncos led for 2,573 seconds. Denver's short fields produced punts twice; only the OT turnover converted, and into a 53-yard kick rather than the red-zone burst the path described.
Expected: Pass rate around 50-54%, 29-32 Darnold attempts, 27-30 carries with Wilson at 18-21 of them, JSN at 9-11 targets and the bulk of the air yards, and the rest of the room on scraps in a leading script.
Happened: Expected 50-54% pass, 29-32 attempts, 27-30 carries with Wilson at 18-21: actual 68.3% pass, 51 attempts, 26 carries, Wilson 14. Only the JSN piece overshot in the right direction (16 targets, 43.5% air-yards share).
Expected: Pass rate near 60% and climbing if Denver trails, 31-35 attempts at a sub-6 aDOT with heavy YAC, 20-24 carries for under 4.0 a pop, Harvey as the checkdown outlet and points landing under the implied 19 unless the red-zone edge shows up.
Happened: The efficiency read was exact — sub-6 aDOT (3.0), heavy YAC (87), carries under 4.0 (2.64), points under 19 (17) — but the volume shape inverted: 50.8% pass on 27 attempts and 28 carries, because Denver led rather than trailed, and Harvey was a 4-target outlet rather than a featured one.
Expect a slow, possession-poor game in the low 40s. Seattle leans on the run because Denver's front is the softest unit on the field, builds a one-score lead, and asks Darnold for 30-ish attempts at a high yards-per-attempt against a secondary without Surtain and Hufanga. Denver moves underneath, converts third downs, and then runs out of field: Seattle has allowed the fewest yards per attempt in the league and the best between-the-20s EPA. Denver's scoring comes in bursts if it reaches the red zone, where Seattle has been the league's softest finisher.
Seattle runs 28-30 times, Wilson carries 18-21, JSN takes his usual third of the targets against backup corners, and the lead lets the front pin Nix into third-and-long. 23-16 with Denver kicking twice.
Denver forces a Darnold giveaway or two — he has five picks in three starts — gets a short field, converts a red-zone trip against the league's 28th-ranked red-zone defense, and makes Seattle throw. Then Harvey's checkdowns and Nix's attempts climb and the game ends 20-19 either way.
The read
A low-total Thursday grind that both season profiles support: Seattle 59.0 plays a game, Denver 57.4, both under the 60.8 league mark, and a 40.5 total with Seattle at 21.5. Seattle's run game is bad (3.81 YPC, negative rush EPA in all five weeks) but it meets the one front that cannot stop it — Denver allows 4.71 YPC (25th), 145.2 rush yards a game (29th) and ranks 24th in rush EPA allowed. Denver's offense meets the opposite: Seattle is 1st in rush EPA allowed, 1st in yards per attempt allowed (5.45), 2nd in pass EPA and 1st in field (between-the-20s) EPA allowed at -0.244. Nix's offense lives on a 4.3-5.4 aDOT and YAC; that profile moves chains and dies at midfield.
Why
The split at the 20 is the whole game. Seattle gives up almost nothing on the field and then collapses inside its 20: 77.8% of opponent red-zone trips become touchdowns (28th) with +0.397 EPA allowed there (31st). So Denver's 19 implied points are a trips question — few drives, but the ones that arrive finish. Denver's own red-zone defense is the reverse (50% allowed, 6th), which argues for Seattle yardage over Seattle touchdown calls. On the other side, Denver's secondary is gutted: Surtain ruled out Wednesday (Rotowire), Hufanga out multiple weeks (ESPN via Rotowire, Wed), Moss questionable after a limited Wednesday. That is the specific reason Seattle's passing numbers survive a #6 pass-EPA rank.
What would change it
Moss's designation — if he plays, Denver's outside coverage is far less thin. Seattle's turnover habit (4 giveaways in week 5, 3 at Washington in week 3) is the fastest route to a Denver lead and a flipped script, in which case Harvey's checkdown volume and Nix's attempts spike and Wilson's carries shrink. Denver's pre-snap flags (3.0 a game, 2nd-worst habit on this card) push it into the long-down passing it cannot win. Note Kalshi is the market here and its player prices are thin.
A concentrated, explosive passing game bolted to a dead run game: 8.10 yards per attempt but 3.81 YPC with negative rush EPA in all five weeks, and a field EPA of -0.134 that says the yards come in chunks, not drives.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 37-583-7 on 50 targets in five games and routinely takes half the air yards, plus short fields off takeaways (14 points off Charger giveaways in week 4) and Wilson's goal-line work.
Interior pressure and fronts that hold under 3.8 YPC: Washington held the run to 2.4 a carry in week 3 and forced a 70% pass rate and three turnovers; San Francisco took five sacks and four giveaways in week 5. Third down (recurring tag, three weeks) and pre-snap penalties (2.8 a game) end drives.
Denver pressures at 18.4% (7th) but cannot stop the run — 4.71 YPC, 145.2 rushing yards a game, 24th in rush EPA. Its pass defense ranks 6th in EPA, but Surtain and Hufanga are out and Moss is questionable, which is the reason that rank should not bind here. Denver's red-zone defense is real (50% TDs allowed, 6th), so expect yards and field goals more than a touchdown pileup.
Charbonnet out (ruled out Wednesday), Price on IR — Wilson is the clear lead back with Holani behind him, as he has been for three weeks. JSN practiced fully and carries no designation (Rotowire, Wed). Lock is cleared as the backup. Guard Anthony Bradford remains on IR, a quiet tax on the run game and protection. On the other side, Denver is without Surtain (ankle), Hufanga (ankle, multi-week) and possibly Moss.
Pass rate around 50-54%, 29-32 Darnold attempts, 27-30 carries with Wilson at 18-21 of them, JSN at 9-11 targets and the bulk of the air yards, and the rest of the room on scraps in a leading script.
A low-aDOT, YAC-dependent offense: 5.82 yards per attempt, 59.9% completions, 3.62 YPC, and a field EPA of -0.062. It moves the ball in short chunks and converts trips at a 64.3% red-zone clip when it gets there.
Third-down volume (8-of-17 at San Francisco), red-zone finishing, Waddle or Engram on the rare downfield shot, and non-offensive help — the week-3 win over the Rams included a 66-yard pick-six and two two-point plays.
Four-man pressure and coverage that takes away the short middle. Kansas City's 21.2% pressure rate held Denver to 10 points in week 1; San Francisco's coverage turned 296 yards and 66 plays into one red-zone trip and 14 points. Pre-snap flags (3.0 a game) compound it.
The worst possible draw between the 20s: Seattle is 1st in rush EPA allowed, 1st in yards per attempt allowed, 2nd in pass EPA allowed, 2nd in passing yards allowed per game and 3rd in pressure generated. The one opening is at the goal line — Seattle has allowed touchdowns on 77.8% of red-zone trips (28th) with +0.397 EPA inside its 20 (31st). So Denver's path is few drives, finished.
Coleman (IR) and Bryant (IR) are gone from the skill group; the backfield is Dobbins on early downs with Harvey as the receiving back. Three offensive linemen are on IR or PUP and Powers is full after a biceps issue — depth that quietly raises the pressure risk against Seattle's front. Seattle is without LB Drake Thomas (73% of snaps), with Tyrice Knight expected to start — a small break for Denver's inside run game.
Pass rate near 60% and climbing if Denver trails, 31-35 attempts at a sub-6 aDOT with heavy YAC, 20-24 carries for under 4.0 a pop, Harvey as the checkdown outlet and points landing under the implied 19 unless the red-zone edge shows up.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Holani played 57.6% of snaps but took only 5 carries for 20 and drew zero targets on 51 pass attempts; the checkdown half of the mechanism simply does not exist in this offense, and Velus Jones took 4 carries off the top.
The clear RB2 in a two-man room with Charbonnet still out, and his touches come as both carries against a soft front and checkdowns when the pocket gets squeezed.
8 touches in week 5 (4 carries, 4 catches, 24 yards receiving) and 8 in week 4; 36-41% snaps in four of five weeks; five catches at Washington in a trailing script.
vs #24 rush EPA allowed; the engine's combined mean is comfortably above the line while Kalshi prices the over under even money — the gap is the engine's, and Kalshi's volume here is thin.
In the game: Hit at 278, but on 51 attempts at 5.45 per throw with -4.6 CPOE and 2-of-8 deep — the opposite of the stated efficiency mechanism, which required the attempt base to stay near 30.
Seattle throws at the highest yards-per-attempt in this game and draws a secondary down two starters. This is an efficiency call, so it needs the attempt base to hold near 30.
8.10 yards per attempt on the season; 379 yards at Washington, 195 on 29 attempts against San Francisco; Denver allows 220.4 passing yards a game (9th) with Surtain and Hufanga out.
vs #6 pass EPA allowed — justified only by the missing starters; engine mean is level with the line and Kalshi is marginally above it. Passing overs against top-tier pass defenses are 1-of-3 on the record, so size it small.
In the game: 16 targets, 183 air yards, 43.5% of the team's air yards, 12-134 against backup corners — the concentration-plus-depleted-secondary mechanism is precisely what produced the number, even allowing that trailing script added targets.
Denver's top corner and its ballhawk safety are both out and the next corner is questionable. Seattle routes roughly half its air yards to one man regardless of script.
37-583-7 on 50 targets in five games, 84-90% snaps; Surtain ruled out and Hufanga out multiple weeks (Rotowire, Wed Oct 14), Moss limited Wednesday.
vs #6 pass EPA allowed — the rank is pre-attrition and does not bind with two starters out. Engine mean is a touch above the line, Kalshi's over price is the shorter of the two.
In the game: Wilson got 14 carries for 52 at 3.7 a pop; the stated driver — a one-score lead turning into handoffs — never occurred, as Seattle led for 519 seconds and trailed on 63 of 82 snaps.
He is the whole backfield with Charbonnet and Price out, and he meets the softest run front Seattle has seen. A one-score lead on a short week turns into handoffs.
20, 21 and 21 carries the last three weeks at 59-60% snaps; Denver allows 4.71 YPC and 145.2 rush yards a game and the week-4 review had this exact mechanism hit at 21-81.
vs #24 rush EPA allowed; engine mean sits just above the line and Kalshi is slightly above the engine, so this leans on the volume floor, not a yards-per-carry spike. Rushing overs are 56% on the plans' record.
In the game: 7 targets and 49 air yards (50.5% team share) turned into 4-24 with -2.2 EPA — quarterback-capped yardage exactly as described.
His yardage is quarterback-capped: the targets arrive, the air yards do not. Seattle's corners and safeties have allowed the fewest receiver yards in the league on a per-game basis.
Since the 138-yard outlier in week 2 with Mims out: 10, 35 and 19 yards on 7, 6 and 5 targets; Seattle is 3rd in fantasy points allowed to receivers and 2nd in passing yards allowed.
vs #2 pass EPA allowed; the engine's mean is well under the line and Kalshi's over price is richer than the engine's — we side with the engine here. The same call hit in week 4 on the same mechanism.
In the game: 3 targets, 30 air yards, 2-19; Nix went 0-for-3 deep including the incompletion to Sutton at Q3 2:00, and the deep attempts never landed.
He is the air-yards target on an offense whose quarterback misses deep, and he draws Seattle's best cover corner and a safety group that has erased the deep middle.
4, 18 and 46 yards in three of the last four; 1-of-6 deep by Nix at San Francisco; Seattle has allowed zero or few explosive passes in most weeks and ranks 1st in YPA allowed.
vs #2 pass EPA allowed; the engine's mean is below the line and Kalshi agrees direction-wise, so the edge is modest — the mechanism is Nix's depth accuracy, not a role change.
In the game: 107 yards on 27 attempts at a 3.0 aDOT, -0.208 EPA/dropback; Denver's two longest drives needed a 15-yard face mask and a 20-yard DPI to sustain.
A short-area passing game meets the league's stingiest unit between the 20s. Yards come after the catch, and this secondary tackles and squeezes the field better than anyone he has faced.
Nix at 5.82 yards per attempt with a 4.3-5.4 aDOT; Seattle allows 5.45 YPA (1st), 166.8 passing yards a game (2nd) and pressures at 22.3% (3rd); Nix went 123 and 186 in two of his last three.
vs #2 pass EPA allowed; the engine's mean already sits below the line and Kalshi sits a shade above the engine — the read is that even the engine's number is generous against this front-plus-coverage combination.
In the game: Kupp saw 10 targets for 50 yards; the call was a volume fade predicated on a run-heavy, shortened game, and Seattle ran 82 plays throwing two-thirds of the time. The target rank held (4th in air-yards share at 18.3%), the game shape did not.
Fourth in line for air yards on an offense that funnels everything to one receiver, in a game plan built to run and shorten the night.
3, 2, 5, 2 and 3 targets in five games for 35, 20, 46, 13 and 15 yards; Seattle's pass rate is 52.9% and falls with any lead.
vs #6 pass EPA allowed; the engine's mean is just under the line and Kalshi is under it too — a volume read on the smallest piece of a concentrated target tree.
In the game: The efficiency half held emphatically — 2.4 YPC, -4.75 rushing EPA, one stuff — but the volume logic ('if Denver trails, the carries go too') inverted: Denver led and gave him 17 carries, three above projection, and he still missed the line.
The best run defense in football against a back averaging under 4.0 a carry all season. If Denver trails, the carries go too — this is the most dependable shape of call on the board.
Dobbins at 36, 36, 49, 40 and 68 yards; Seattle allows 3.69 YPC, 100.4 rush yards a game and ranks 1st in rush EPA and 3rd in rush success allowed.
vs #1 rush EPA allowed; the engine projects above the line, which is the regression-to-league blend our studies say under-responds to elite run defenses — Kalshi prices the over below the engine and is nearer right.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: Seattle runs at the league's weakest front, takes the lead, and Denver's short passing game gets squeezed by the best between-the-20s defense in football while its own run game never starts.
If the team yardage lands under, the two receivers who carry the air yards are where the shortfall shows; both have already been held under 20 in multiple weeks by far worse coverage.
Same mechanism twice: with Denver's top corner and ballhawk safety out, Seattle's yardage comes through one man, so the quarterback's total and his receiver's total rise together.
grade · 57
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.0 | 17 | -2 | |
| Pass yds | 198.3 | 107.0 | -91.3 | |
| Rush yds | 93.9 | 74.0 | -19.9 | |
| Pass att | 31.6 | 27 | -4.6 | |
| Carries | 26.1 | 28 | +1.9 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.5 | 14 | -7.5 | |
| Pass yds | 225.2 | 278.0 | +52.8 | |
| Rush yds | 112.2 | 113.0 | +0.8 | |
| Pass att | 31.2 | 51 | +19.8 | |
| Carries | 28.2 | 26 | -2.2 |
A C (0.573): the team-level shape was decent (0.692) but the two volume assumptions that drive everything were wrong in opposite directions. Seattle's 51 pass attempts against a projected 31.2 is the single biggest input miss and it cascades — Darnold's yardage, JSN's 16 targets, Kupp's 10 targets and Horton's 5 all flow from it, and the engine had blended Seattle to a 54.3% pass rate off a 52.9% season rate. Denver's 107 passing yards against 198.3 is the other big one, and that is less noise: Nix threw at a 3.0 aDOT, went 0-for-3 deep, and the engine's blended 6.27 Y/A was already generous against a Seattle unit allowing 5.45. Points were close on both sides (DEN 17 vs 19.0, SEA 14 vs 21.5) and Seattle's rushing yardage was nearly exact at 113 vs 112.2. The market calls split: side wrong, total right, 23 of 40 player lines graded hit.
Pattern: Seattle's defense is genuinely elite between the 20s (Denver: -0.174 field EPA, 3-of-14 third downs, 74 rush yards on 28 carries) and its offense moves the ball, but it leaks points through self-inflicted events — sacks on third down, turnovers, defensive flags that gift first downs, and a goal-line defense that concedes touchdowns on nearly every trip it allows. You beat Seattle without outplaying it.
This week: Denver tried exactly that and had just enough: a pass rush that produced 26.8% pressure with Robinson and Roach winning individually, two cornerbacks (McMillian, Abrams-Draine) who took the ball away, and an offense efficient enough to convert its only two red-zone trips. What Denver could not do was generate field position on its own — it gained 181 yards all game and needed penalties and a turnover to find points.
What an opponent needs: A four-man rush that pressures above ~22% without blitzing (Seattle's protection cracks when it can't slide), corners who punish Darnold's short-left throws, and the ability to finish the rare trip inside the 20 — because you will get few of them.
Pattern: Denver is a bend-don't-break defense (week 3: five LA red-zone trips, one touchdown) with a soft run front, married to an offense that lives on 3-to-5 yard throws and converts a third of its third downs. Opponents move the ball on the ground and in chunks through a secondary missing Surtain and Hufanga; what they usually don't do is finish, and Denver's offense cannot run away with anything.
This week: Seattle had the chunk plays (42 to Shaheed, 32 to JSN, 3 explosive runs) and the efficiency between the 20s to execute the blueprint, but abandoned the run after falling behind — 26 carries at 4.35 while throwing 51 times at 5.45 per attempt — and then converted the field position into one red-zone trip. That's the trap: Denver looked exploitable and the yardage came, the points did not.
What an opponent needs: A rushing attack above league rush EPA with an explosive-run rate at or above 2.3 a game that will keep handing off while behind, plus a quarterback who protects the ball — Denver's defense has no way to stop a methodical drive but every way to end one with a takeaway or a sack on third-and-long.
A run-lean projection is a script assumption, not a tendency. Seattle entered at a 52.9% pass rate and threw on 68.3% of snaps because it never led for more than 519 seconds — but its early-down pass rate (60.9%) was actually below expected. Before buying rush-volume props, ask what happens if the team trails by 11 at the half.
Trigger: Any RB rush-yard over whose stated mechanism includes 'the lead turns into handoffs,' on a team that is not a clear favorite by a touchdown.
Play volume does not equal points when neither offense clears the 20. 139 plays and overtime produced 31 points because Seattle got one red-zone trip on 82 snaps and Denver gained 181 yards. Totals that depend on pace are vulnerable to teams with negative field EPA on both sides.
Trigger: Both offenses below 0.00 season field EPA/play and at least one defense allowing fewer than 5.6 yards per attempt — take the under regardless of projected pace.
Concentration beats volume for receiver props. JSN's 43.5% air-yards share held no matter the script and produced 16 targets and 134 yards; the RB2 with a 57.6% snap share got zero targets on 51 attempts. Pay for target share, not for 'he'll catch checkdowns.'
Trigger: A WR at or above a 35% air-yards share facing a secondary down two starters — the over survives both scripts; an RB2 receiving over needs charted targets, not projected ones.
A quarterback with a sub-4.0 aDOT against a top-tier coverage unit is a yardage under even when volume looks safe. Nix's 27 attempts produced 107 yards on 3.0 aDOT with 0/3 deep; the engine's 6.27 blended Y/A was 2.3 yards too generous.
Trigger: QB season aDOT under 5.0 versus a defense allowing under 5.6 Y/A — fade the passing yardage line even if the attempt projection holds.
Seattle's defense is worth laying points against between the 20s and worth fading at the goal line. Opponents are now 7-for-7 on red-zone trips across weeks 4, 5 and 6 with +0.54 to +0.92 EPA inside the 20, while the field defense ranks among the league's best.
Trigger: Opposing anytime-TD props and team-total overs for offenses that project under 3 red-zone trips — the trips convert, so the scoring comes in TDs not FGs, but the trip count caps the total.
The short version
Seattle ran 82 plays to Denver's 59, out-gained the Broncos by more than 200 yards, and lost in overtime because it reached the red zone once. Three giveaways — Shaheed's fumble at the Denver 30, Darnold's interception on 3rd-and-1 inside field-goal range at 1:31, and the overtime pick that handed Denver the ball at the Seattle 43 — plus a missed 47-yard field goal and five sacks for 42 yards made 391 yards worth fourteen points. Denver covered as a 2.5-point home underdog and the total stayed under 40.5 despite 139 plays and an extra period.
How it unfolded
Seattle opened by moving the ball and immediately paying for it: back-to-back Darnold sacks by McMillian and Robinson at Q1 11:31 and 10:49 cost -3.8 EPA and turned a drive into a punt, and the second possession ended in a 55-yard Myers kick. Denver's answer was the game's only real sustained drive — 17 plays, 79 yards, 8:39, kept alive by Badie's six-yard fourth-down run at the 48 (+2.9 EPA) and an Engram conversion on 3rd-and-8 — and Dobbins scored from the four.
The second touchdown was gifted. On 3rd-and-10 from the Denver 21, Byron Murphy's face mask turned an eight-yard completion into a 23-yard gain, and Witherspoon's 20-yard DPI at 5:19 put the Broncos at the goal line for Harvey's direct-snap score. Thirty-five of the drive's 44 yards came from Seattle's secondary. Seattle answered by driving to the Denver 30 and having Bonitto punch the ball out of Shaheed's hands.
The second half was Denver doing essentially nothing — drives of 9, 4, 3, 23, -10 and 2 yards, -0.561 EPA per play — and Seattle failing to convert the field it owned. Shaheed's 42-yard catch set up the missed 47-yarder; sacks by Elliss and the Allen/Bonitto pair ended two more possessions. The 12-play, 66-yard touchdown drive at Q4 9:18, capped by Holani and a two-point conversion to Shaheed, made it 14-11, and after the Abrams-Draine interception Shaheed's 31-yard punt return set up Myers's 34-yard tie at :07. In overtime McMillian picked Darnold at the Seattle 43 and Lutz hit from 53.
Why the game diverged from the projection
Two volume assumptions broke. Seattle was modeled for 31.2 attempts on a 54.3% blended pass rate; it threw 51 times at a 68.3% rate because it trailed on 63 of 82 snaps and played overtime. That is script, not philosophy — its early-down pass rate (60.9%) was below the expected 67.6%. Denver was modeled for 31.6 attempts and 198 passing yards and threw 27 for 107, because it led for 2,573 seconds and because Nix's 3.0 aDOT and 0-for-3 deep line are what his 5.82 season Y/A looks like against a defense allowing 5.45. That one is signal: the engine's 6.27 blended yards per attempt was too kind to a short-area passer.
The points, though, were close on both sides (DEN 17 vs 19.0, SEA 14 vs 21.5) and the total projection of 40.5 beat the market's own number. Seattle's shortfall is a finishing story, not a movement story — field EPA -0.135, one red-zone trip, a 0.728 EPA/play inside the 20 when it finally got there.
The plan against the game
The plan's Denver side was close to perfect and for the stated reasons: Nix capped at 107, Waddle and Sutton combined for 43 on their air-yard shares, Dobbins at 2.4 a carry. Its Seattle side rested on a lead that never came, so the run-lean call inverted (68.3% pass), the pace call inverted (139 plays against a 121.5 league baseline), Wilson's and Holani's touches never arrived, and the Kupp volume fade died in a 51-attempt game. Most tellingly, the underdog path it wrote — Darnold gives it away, Denver gets a short field, converts its red-zone trips, final near 20-19 — is the game that was played. The plan saw the losing branch; it just bet the other one.
Player by player
Smith-Njigba is the durable lesson: 16 targets, 183 air yards, 43.5% of the team's air-yard share, 12-134 with no touchdown. The concentration survives any script. Kupp's 10 targets and Horton's five are the opposite — pure chase volume, with -0.11 and -2.95 receiving EPA respectively. Wilson hit his projected rushing yardage almost exactly (52 on 51.6) but on a 31.8% snap share; Holani played 57.6% of snaps, took five carries, drew zero targets on 51 attempts and still scored. That backfield is a committee with unpredictable touch distribution, and Velus Jones's four unprojected carries make it worse. For Denver, Harvey was the efficient back (+2.34 rush EPA, 38 YAC on negative air yards) at 40% of snaps while Dobbins ground out 17 carries for -4.75 EPA.
The defenses
Seattle's front and coverage were the better unit all night: 74 Denver rushing yards on 28 carries, 3-of-14 on third down, -0.174 field EPA, Emmanwori with a sack and three pressures, Ernest Jones with nine tackles and a sack. It gave up points only where it has all season — at the goal line and through its own flags. Denver's pass rush won without exotics: 33.3% blitz rate per charting, 6.24-man boxes, and Robinson and Roach generating four pressures each, with four of five sacks on third down. Its corners, down Surtain and Hufanga, allowed yards (Barron 67, Brandon Jones 78 with three missed tackles) but produced the two interceptions that decided it.
What the model should take from this
Seattle's trailing-script pass rate is the operative input, not its season rate. Denver should be modeled run-lean whenever it is not behind. And the engine's yards-per-attempt blend needs more weight on quarterback aDOT when facing top-tier coverage: a 3-to-4 aDOT passer against a sub-5.6 Y/A defense is a structural under, not a variance play. The red-zone split — Seattle's opponents now 7-for-7 over three weeks — is worth tracking but not yet worth a model constant; the trip counts that produce it are small-sample noise.
Seahawks offenseagainst theBroncos defense
Projected SEA offense output — equivalently, what the DEN defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 15(14) | 52(52) | 0.3(0) | 2.3(1) | 1.7(0) | 16(0) | 0.1(0) |
| RBFP | 5(5) | 15(20) | 0.1(1) | 2.7(0) | 2.0(0) | 14(0) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 6 | 25 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 4 | 0 |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRFP | 9.0(16) | 6.4(12) | 89(134) | 0.8(0) |
| WR | 4.4(8) | 2.8(5) | 23(66) | 0.1(0) |
| WR | 3.4(10) | 2.5(5) | 23(50) | 0.2(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 4.5(4) | 3.2(3) | 21(16) | 0.1(0) |
SEA offenserank of 32DEN defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 61.8: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 54%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 56%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
SEA offenserank of 32DEN defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.98: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
SEA offenserank of 32DEN defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 7.21: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 66%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 7.0%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.4%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Broncos offenseagainst theSeahawks defense
Projected DEN offense output — equivalently, what the SEA defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 14(17) | 50(41) | 0.4(1) | 1.6(3) | 1.2(3) | 6(5) | 0(0) |
| RB | 4(6) | 13(25) | 0.1(1) | 4.3(4) | 3.3(3) | 27(31) | 0.2(0) |
| RB | 1(1) | 4(6) | 0(0) | 1.5(0) | 1.0(0) | 10(0) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2 | 0 |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 6.3(7) | 4.3(4) | 33(24) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 2.1 | 1.4 | 27 | 0.2 |
| WR | 5.2(3) | 3.2(2) | 25(19) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 1.7(1) | 1.0(1) | 15(2) | 0.1(0) |
| WR | 1.7(4) | 1.2(2) | 6(13) | 0(0) |
| WR | 1.0 | 0.7 | 4 | 0 |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 3.8(2) | 2.6(2) | 32(13) | 0.2(0) |
| TE | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4 | 0 |
DEN offenserank of 32SEA defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 59.7: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 56%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 62%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DEN offenserank of 32SEA defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.60: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DEN offenserank of 32SEA defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.27: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 62%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.8%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.7%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.