The plan against the game · plan Sun Oct 18, 9:38 AM · report Tue Oct 20, 11:38 AM Taylor punches in the scores. Ward throws from behind all afternoon. script partly held 5 hit6 missed projection D · 52 open
Indianapolis controls this with Taylor and the clock while Tennessee's 0-5 offense chases; the biggest lever is Tyler Warren's game-time groin call, which reshuffles every Colts target.
Indianapolis should score first or early-second and never trail by much, leaning on Taylor and a short passing game that doesn't need depth. Tennessee's offense has not cleared 20 points all season and is averaging 53 snaps a game, so possession skews Colts. Tennessee gets to its number only through chase-mode volume against a secondary that has allowed 268 passing yards a game. The likely shape is Colts field goals plus short rushing touchdowns, Titans yardage without finishing — the exact split both offenses have shown.
Tennessee won 26-20 and covered +6.5 while gaining 186 yards on 45 snaps — Indianapolis outgained them 434-186 and lost the game on three turnovers, six sacks and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. The total went over 43.5 largely on four Slye field goals and a defensive score, not on offense.
The plan read the mechanism of the upset better than it read the shape of the game: it named Jones's ball security as a swing factor and wrote an underdog path in which Jones gives it away under pressure and Tennessee wins a 20-23 point game late — which is exactly what happened, with three IND turnovers and six sacks. What it missed was how Tennessee would get its points: it assumed chase-mode volume, 33-36 Ward attempts and 240 passing yards, and instead the Titans threw 22 times for 102 and scored on a blocked punt and four field goals. Both lean calls broke in the same direction — Indy threw more while leading (61.5%), Tennessee ran more while tied (48.9%) — because the script never pushed Tennessee into a two-score deficit. Pace was called correctly (123 plays vs 121.5 league), and the Warren-out swing factor landed, just on the wrong receiver.
The script: The underdog path's causal chain held: Tennessee ran early (21 carries, 4.0 ypc, Pollard's 16-yarder at Q3 4:46), Jones gave it away under pressure (INTs at Q1 2:44 and Q3 7:07, 6 sacks, 11 hits), and the Titans won a 26-20 game late on field goals at 2:07 and 0:47. The half of the path that broke is the one the plan leaned on hardest — Ward's quick game never produced the 35 attempts or 240 yards; `checks` shows TEN's pass rate at 0.489 against a 0.596 season rate and IND's at 0.615 against 0.573, so both leans were inverted. Favorite-path markers also failed: Indy's pass rate stayed at 52.8% while leading rather than dropping under 50%, and its drives died inside the 20 (2 TDs on 4 trips, -0.333 red-zone EPA) rather than Tennessee's.
Expected: 52-56% pass, 32-35 dropbacks only if the game stays close, Taylor 20-23 carries plus 3-4 targets, McGowan 4-6 carries once ahead, and the passing yards distributed rather than concentrated.
Happened: Taylor hit 21 carries and 4 targets and McGowan took 4, as written, but the pass rate was 61% on 50 dropbacks (not 52-56% and 32-35), and the yardage concentrated on Allen's 11 targets rather than distributing.
Expected: 60-65% pass, 33-36 attempts, 220-245 passing yards concentrated on Tate with Robinson underneath, Pollard 15-18 carries, and finishing — not yardage — the reason the team total stays low.
Happened: Expected 60-65% pass on 33-36 attempts for 220-245 yards; actual was 48.9% pass, 22 attempts, 102 yards. Only the Tate concentration (7 targets, 87 air yards, 64.9% share) and Pollard's 19 carries landed.
Indianapolis should score first or early-second and never trail by much, leaning on Taylor and a short passing game that doesn't need depth. Tennessee's offense has not cleared 20 points all season and is averaging 53 snaps a game, so possession skews Colts. Tennessee gets to its number only through chase-mode volume against a secondary that has allowed 268 passing yards a game. The likely shape is Colts field goals plus short rushing touchdowns, Titans yardage without finishing — the exact split both offenses have shown.
Indy takes a one-to-two score lead by halftime, Taylor hits 22-25 touches, the pass rate drops under 50% after the break, and the points arrive as short runs and kicks; Tennessee's drives die inside the 20 against a defense ranked 4th in red-zone EPA allowed.
Tennessee stays within a score by running early against a front that allows 4.97 a carry, Jones gives it away under pressure as he has repeatedly, and Ward's quick game turns 35 attempts into 240-plus yards against a defense that neither pressures nor covers — a 20-23 point game Tennessee can win late.
The read
Indianapolis by a touchdown over a Tennessee team that has scored 10, 20, 7, 18 and 3 and runs the fewest plays in the league (53.4/game). The Colts don't have to be good to win this — they have to stay ahead and hand it off. Tennessee's defense is 30th in pass EPA allowed and 28th in pressure generated, which is the one place Cam Ward's low-aDOT quick game can actually function; the problem is that Tennessee is 4th in yards per carry allowed and 4th in red-zone EPA allowed, so this is a game where Indianapolis moves the ball between the 20s and may well cash it in field goals and short runs rather than chunk drives. Expect Tennessee trailing from the second quarter on, Ward at 33-36 attempts, and Jonathan Taylor at 20+ touches with his yardage grinding rather than exploding.
Why
The Colts' own profile is run-first when ahead: 42.9% second-half pass rate in the Week 4 win at Washington, 54.5% overall, three rushing touchdowns and 143 passing yards. Tennessee's run defense allows 3.54 yards a carry (4th) but 114 rushing yards a game — volume without efficiency, which is exactly how a lead-protecting offense uses it. On the other side, Indianapolis generates pressure at 12.9% (24th) with Tuimoloau in concussion evaluation, and has allowed 268 passing yards a game (28th). Ward's chase volume has been real in every game he trailed (32, 36, 31, 36 attempts), and Carnell Tate is the designated air-yards winner (73.1% of them in Week 4).
What would change it
Tyler Warren's groin — ESPN's Fowler had him a game-time decision Sunday morning. Out, and the Colts' targets scatter to Downs, Treadwell and Allen and the red-zone menu narrows to Taylor. An early Tennessee score or a Jones giveaway (six in his first three games) flips this into a two-way passing game and lifts both totals.
A short-area, run-leaning offense: 64.2 plays a game, 5.80 yards an attempt, 3.68 a carry, field EPA -0.053 but red-zone EPA +0.193 and a 61.5% red-zone touchdown rate — it finishes better than it moves.
Taylor at the goal line (five rushing scores in five weeks), Warren and the slot underneath, and a kicker: four Shrader field goals in Week 3, two more at Pittsburgh.
A four-man rush. Jones took 9 hits vs BAL (26.5%), 4 sacks and two strip-sacks vs HOU, 5 hits at WAS — six giveaways in three games. Third down has also been a problem (4/16 at PIT, 5/15 at WAS).
Tennessee generates pressure at 11.9% (28th), which removes the one thing that has broken this offense, and ranks 30th in pass EPA allowed and 29th on the field between the 20s. But it is 4th in yards per carry allowed (3.54) and 4th in red-zone EPA allowed — yards should come, clean touchdown drives less so.
Warren (groin) is a game-time decision per ESPN's Fowler Sunday morning — he is a 85-94% snap tight end and the target leader; without him Downs, Treadwell, Allen and the newly activated Mallory split it. Dulin is out, Pierce on IR. Goncalves limited with a concussion evaluation on the line. Facing Tennessee without safety Kevin Winston Jr. (100% of snaps), though Hooker is back from concussion.
52-56% pass, 32-35 dropbacks only if the game stays close, Taylor 20-23 carries plus 3-4 targets, McGowan 4-6 carries once ahead, and the passing yards distributed rather than concentrated.
The league's lowest-volume offense: 53.4 plays, 5.78 yards an attempt, field EPA -0.158, 40% red-zone touchdown rate. Ward's aDOT has sat between 5.9 and 8.1 with one explosive-pass game in five.
Short completions to Tate and Robinson, Ward's legs near the goal line (two rushing TDs vs PHI), and whatever Pollard can grind. Three points last week.
Pressure (4 sacks vs HOU, 3 vs NYJ), its own flags — two OPIs at NYG, one erasing a 28-yard completion — and the red zone: 1 touchdown on 8 trips across Weeks 1-3, 0-for-1 in Week 5.
The best passing matchup Ward has seen: Indy allows 8.02 yards an attempt (29th), 268 passing yards a game (28th) and pressures at 12.9% (24th). Indy is also 29th in rush EPA allowed and 27th in yards per carry (4.97), so Pollard's lane is real even in a trailing script.
Spears questionable (knee) but full Friday per Rotowire — expect him active and in the passing-down role that produced nine catches in Week 5. On the Colts' side, Tuimoloau is in concussion evaluation and Buckner did not practice (rest): a front that was already the league's 24th in pressure may be lighter still, which is the clean pocket Ward needs.
60-65% pass, 33-36 attempts, 220-245 passing yards concentrated on Tate with Robinson underneath, Pollard 15-18 carries, and finishing — not yardage — the reason the team total stays low.
Each call is one player, one market, one side of the line Kalshi quoted when the plan was written; graded off the box score, with the report's read of whether the reason given showed up. The rungs are the same call down the Kalshi ladder, Edge halfway to its last rung and Edge+ the last, at Kalshi's last pregame price.
In the game: Taylor scored from the 4 on a left-end run at Q4 5:36 — the short-area goal-line role the mechanism described, on a drive that started at the IND 28 and covered 72 yards.
He is the entire goal-line menu for a team that finishes with runs, and the favorite's script hands him the short-field work; his yardage can stall and the score still arrives.
Five rushing TDs in five games; all three Colts TDs at WAS were runs of 5, 5 and 4 yards; IND converts 61.5% of red-zone trips, TEN allows 57.1%.
vs #24 EPA allowed; model and exchange agree directionally (72% vs 70%), so this is a correlation leg rather than a price edge — and it rests on finishing, the least persistent half, which is why it sits behind the volume calls. Anytime-TD calls are 8-of-12 this season.
In the game: The role was there — 92.8% snap share, 69 air yards, second on the team — but only 5 targets and 2 catches for 21; the downfield work went 2/10 team-wide and Allen, not Treadwell, absorbed the Warren vacancy.
With the outside receiver room thinned, Indy's downfield work has gone to him rather than the slot, and a tight end game-time decision only adds to it.
Snap share 79-85% in Weeks 3-5 with 6 then 8 targets, 36.2% of air yards at WAS; Pierce on IR and Dulin out again per Rotowire Friday.
vs #30 pass EPA allowed; the model is far above this rung (42.8) and the exchange only 53% over — the market still prices him as a fourth option, the Week-4 review flagged the opposite.
In the game: Pollard got 19 carries (above the 14-17 range the plan cited) for 76 yards, 4.0 a carry, including a 16-yard run at Q3 4:46 — the soft-front read cashed as written.
His carry count has held between 14 and 17 in four straight weeks regardless of score, and he meets the softest run defense he has faced all year on a per-carry basis.
Carries 14, 17, 16, 14 in Weeks 2-5 at 48-74 yards; IND allows 4.97 yards a carry and 130.2 rushing yards a game, with +0.298 rush EPA allowed at PIT in Week 5.
vs #29 rush EPA allowed (also 27th in YPC). The model is well above this rung (77.5) while the exchange prices the over at only 44% — the market is paying for the trailing script, but his carries have not moved with the score.
In the game: The mechanism was 'he throws 33-36 times whenever Tennessee trails, and it will trail.' Tennessee was tied or leading for 1,908 of the game's seconds and threw 22 times; the clean pocket arrived and the volume did not.
He throws 33-36 times whenever Tennessee trails, and it will trail. Indianapolis neither pressures nor covers, and its pass rush may be short-handed, which is the clean pocket his quick game needs.
Attempts of 32, 36, 31 and 36 in the four games TEN trailed; IND allows 268 pass ypg and 8.02 Y/A, generates 12.9% pressure, with Tuimoloau in concussion evaluation and Buckner a DNP (rest). Week-4 review: the same chase-volume read cleared 183.5 for 222.
vs #24 pass EPA allowed; the model has him above this rung (222) while the exchange prices the over near a coin flip (52.5%) — the gap is attempts the market hasn't credited to a team that never leads. Record note: pass_yds calls are 45% this season, so this is volume-only.
In the game: 7 targets, 6 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD and 64.9% of the team's air yards on a 22-attempt day — precisely the 'field-stretcher by role, not by game state' mechanism.
He is the field-stretcher by role, not by game state — the one Titan who concentrates air yards — and chase mode funnels throws to him against a secondary that surrenders the field.
12 targets, 9-145 and 73.1% of air yards vs BAL in Week 4; 9 targets at NYG; 76-88% snaps every week. IND has allowed 3+ explosive passes in four of five games and 0.171 pass EPA.
vs #24 pass EPA allowed; model at 60.6, exchange at 54% over — a small edge, but the Week-4 review graded this exact read (field-stretcher vs a beatable secondary) as held.
In the game: The premise that he was fourth in the air-yards pecking order failed immediately: Allen led the team with 11 targets and 104 air yards on 71.1% of snaps, and Indy threw 50 dropbacks while leading rather than fewer.
He is a part-time player now, fourth in the pecking order for air yards behind the tight end, the slot and Treadwell, on an offense that throws less once it leads.
Snap shares of 45% at PIT and 51% at KC; 1-5 for 5 yards vs KC; did not play Week 4. Indy threw 42.9% in the second half of its last win.
vs #30 pass EPA allowed — the soft matchup is the risk here. The model is well below this rung (31.3) while the exchange prices it 56.5% over; that gap is the call, and it widens if the tight end plays.
In the game: Taylor went 21/94 at 4.48 a carry with two runs of 10+ and McGowan siphoned only 4 carries; the 'carries but not yards per carry' read on the Tennessee front failed — the team ran 5.5 a carry, 7.3 to the right side.
Tennessee's front gives up carries but not yards per carry, and McGowan siphons 5-6 of them whenever Indy is ahead. The scores are his; the yardage line is the stretch.
2.96 YPC vs HOU, 3.0 at PIT on 15 carries; TEN allows 3.54 yards a carry, the 4th-lowest, with -0.164 and -0.148 rush EPA allowed to BAL and NYG; McGowan 6 and 5 carries in Weeks 4-5.
vs #18 rush EPA allowed but #4 in yards per carry — the per-carry number is what this market pays. Model below the rung (81.8) while the exchange sits 47.5% over. Labelled efficiency: the volume is not in doubt.
In the game: Exactly as reasoned: 23.9% snaps, 1 carry, 1 target, 8 yards. Week 5's nine targets were blowout noise, not a passing-down role.
Pollard owns the backfield, and last week's nine catches were dump-offs in a 23-point blowout, not a role. He is also carrying a knee through the week.
2, 2 and 3 carries in three of the last four weeks; 36-54% snaps all season; questionable (knee) with a full Friday per Rotowire. The same under cashed at 6 yards in Week 4.
vs #29 rush EPA allowed — the soft front is the counter, but he barely carries it. No exchange quote on this market, so the call is against the model's own figure (29.4), which already sits under the rung.
In the game: The call hit at 4 receptions, but through drops/incompletions on 8 targets, not through low dropback volume — Indy threw 42 times and Downs ran 85.5% of snaps. Right side, wrong reason.
The target concentration keeps going elsewhere — to the tight end and the perimeter — and a leading Colts team runs fewer dropbacks than this number needs.
10 targets total across Weeks 4-5 (4 and 6) with 3 catches each time, despite 77-85% snaps; Treadwell and Dulin out-targeted him 12-4 at WAS.
vs #30 pass EPA allowed, and he gains if Warren is scratched — that is the main risk. Model sits at 4.44 against this rung with the exchange 43.5% over; both lean under, the read is that the role has not changed.
In the game: The pick came at Q2 2:00 on a first-and-10 deep shot to Robinson with Adebawore in his face — not late desperation volume, which is what the mechanism had excluded.
This is a read that he throws it away rather than into trouble: the Colts take the ball away less than anyone, and a one-score chase does not produce the late desperation volume that creates picks.
IND has generated interceptions on 0.6% of attempts this season and no takeaways at all in Weeks 3 and 5; Ward's three picks came against NYG, BAL and HOU.
vs #24 pass EPA allowed. Model already below the rung (0.57 mean, 43% over) while the exchange prices it a coin flip (49.5%) — and 1+ INT is the number most often overstated because projected attempts run high.
In the game: The 'leading team throws less and shorter' premise inverted: Indy led for 1,692 seconds, still threw 61.5%, 42 attempts, 269 yards at an 11.5 adot across 82 plays.
A touchdown favorite that leads throws less and shorter — that is exactly what happened the last time this team was ahead — and his top target is a game-time call.
143 yards on 34 attempts at WAS with a 3.8 aDOT and 42.9% second-half pass rate; 166 and 210 in Weeks 1-2. The 267 at PIT came chasing a two-score deficit. Warren (groin) a game-time decision per ESPN.
vs #30 pass EPA allowed, which argues the other way — the mechanism is script and personnel, not coverage. Model below the rung (220) with the exchange at 52.5% over.
Legs the same script produces together: they move as one, which is what a same-game parlay pays for.
One script: Indianapolis leads and finishes drives on the ground, which puts Tennessee behind and forces Ward into 34-plus attempts with the air yards funnelled to Tate. The Colts' lead is the engine of all three.
If Indy protects a lead it drops its pass rate and its receiving yardage spreads thin, while Tennessee's front concedes carries at 3.5 a pop — the same game produces a short passing day, a capped part-time receiver and a touchdown-heavy, yardage-light back.
Tennessee gets its snaps only if it stays within a score, and the path to that is the one soft spot in Indianapolis's defense — 4.97 yards a carry allowed — keeping Pollard's touches alive while Ward's attempts stay high.
grade · 52
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.0 | 20 | -5 | |
| Pass yds | 220.1 | 269.0 | +48.9 | |
| Rush yds | 107.6 | 165.0 | +57.4 | |
| Pass att | 32.0 | 42 | +10 | |
| Carries | 28.5 | 30 | +1.5 |
| Proj | Actual | Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.5 | 26 | +7.5 | |
| Pass yds | 222.0 | 102.0 | -120 | |
| Rush yds | 107.4 | 84.0 | -23.4 | |
| Pass att | 31.9 | 22 | -9.9 | |
| Carries | 25.2 | 23 | -2.2 |
The grade is a D (0.525) and the market score (0.333) is why: the model picked IND straight-up and Under 43.5, and got only the spread (TEN +6.5) right. Team-level, the shape was inverted — the model gave TEN 58.8 plays and 31.9 attempts and they ran 45 and 22; IND was projected 62.3 plays and got 82, with 165 rush yards against a 107.6 projection. The blended inputs weren't crazy (Pollard 77.5 proj / 76 actual, Taylor 20.4 carries / 21, McGowan 4.1 / 4), but every volume assumption was downstream of a script that never arrived: TEN never trailed by more than 13 and was tied or leading for 1,908 of the game's seconds, so the pass-rate bump the engine blended (0.572) collapsed to 0.511. The points miss on TEN (18.5 proj, 26 actual) is almost entirely non-offensive — 13 of the 26 came from a blocked-punt touchdown and two 44+ field goals off turnover field position. Player grade 25/40 hit; the two biggest misses (Ward -120 pass yards, Allen +52.8 rec yards) both trace to volume, not projection error on efficiency.
Pattern: Five straight losses built the same way: the defense surrenders chunk passes between the 20s, the offense runs 50-55 snaps and stalls inside the 20. The win came without the offense fixing anything — it came from three takeaways and a blocked punt. Note also the run-location split: 1.7 ypc up the middle on 6 carries, 5.2 right.
This week: Indianapolis had the profile to cash the blueprint — 11.5 adot, 3 explosive passes, 434 yards, 82 snaps — and tried it, but it couldn't finish drives, and TEN's front produced far more pressure (22%) than its 11.7% season rate suggested it could.
What an opponent needs: An offense that throws at depth (adot 9+) with a quarterback who protects the ball, plus a line that can handle interior pressure from Simmons; and crucially, the ability to convert red-zone trips, since TEN's bend-don't-break at its own 20 shows in Weeks 2 and 4 as well as here.
Pattern: Indianapolis moves the ball at a league-average clip and loses the game at the margins: a strip, a forced throw into coverage, a sack on third-and-10, a trip that ends as a field goal. Three of five prior weeks carried the turnover tag and three the no-pass-rush tag; this game added both at once.
This week: Tennessee tried the run-game half (21 carries, 4.0 ypc) and had the pressure to cash the protection half far beyond what its 11.7% season rate implied — but its offense could not convert the takeaways into touchdowns either (one offensive TD), which is why a three-turnover, blocked-punt game was still only a six-point win.
What an opponent needs: A front that gets home with four — a disruptive interior rusher is the specific lever (Simmons took the fumble, two TFL and two sacks) — plus a secondary willing to play the short throw: 31 of Jones's 43 attempts were short for 210 yards, and his deep ball was 2/10.
A team total built on a 45-snap offense can still beat its projection when the points come from non-offensive scores and long field goals. Don't treat yards and points as the same variable: TEN had 186 yards and 26 points.
Trigger: Underdog with a bottom-five play count and a defense generating multiple takeaways; look for games where projected team total is derived from drive efficiency while field position is being handed over.
'Trailing team throws' only applies if it actually trails. TEN's blended 0.572 pass rate assumed chase mode; the Titans were tied or ahead for the majority of the game and threw 48.9%, 10.7 points under their season rate.
Trigger: Underdog QB pass-attempt overs priced off a projected deficit — check whether the dog's path to covering is defensive/special-teams scoring, which produces points without volume.
Soft pass-rush and coverage grades on the opponent are not enough to cash a QB yardage over if the QB can't throw it. Ward had a 4.3% pressure rate, zero sacks, a clean pocket — and -20.1 CPOE on 22 attempts for 102 yards.
Trigger: QB yardage overs justified by opponent softness alone when the QB's own season YPA is below 6.0 (TEN 5.78) and the team averages under 55 plays.
When a projected WR3 is the only healthy veteran route-runner after a tight end scratch, the target share moves to him, not to the player who 'has been getting the downfield work.' Allen went from a 4.7-target projection to 11 targets and 28.3% of air yards with Warren out; Treadwell's 92.8% snap share produced only 5 targets.
Trigger: Primary pass-catcher ruled out at game time — buy the receiver with route volume and separation (short-area), fade the pure air-yards replacement.
A one-week pressure spike against a line with a prior collapse week is matchup, not a new defensive trait. TEN went from 11.7% season pressure to 22% in one afternoon against an IND line that also gave up four sacks in Week 3.
Trigger: Before pricing a defense up on a 6-sack game, check whether the opponent's line had a prior multi-sack week and whether the sacks came without blitzing (here, 4.27 average rushers).
The short version
Indianapolis gained 434 yards on 82 snaps and lost by six. Tennessee gained 186 on 45, threw for 102, and scored 26. That is a game decided entirely by the margins: three Colts turnovers, six sacks of Daniel Jones, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and Joey Slye going 4-for-4 including a 56. The model's spread call (TEN +6.5) cashed; its winner and its Under did not, and the projection graded out a D at 0.525 largely because the volume shape of the game inverted — Tennessee was supposed to throw 32 times chasing and threw 22 while tied.
How it unfolded
Indianapolis opened with a 14-play, 77-yard march and finished it with an interception at the Tennessee 6. That play set the day's grammar. The Colts' next drive produced the game's only sustained touchdown — Jones's 38-yard throw to Taylor (Q2 14:34) and a one-yard score to Alie-Cox — and after that the offense alternated between first downs and self-inflicted wounds: three sacks before halftime, a 13-play, 70-yard drive that ended in a 23-yard field goal after Johnson's nine-yard sack at Q2 3:39.
Tennessee trailed 13-0 at the half having produced 17 plays and -0.386 EPA per play. Then the field reversed. Simmons punched the ball out of Taylor's hands on the first snap of the third quarter, giving the Titans the ball at the IND 33 (field goal); Flott intercepted Jones at the Tennessee 11 to end a 12-play drive; Tennessee's 51-yard answer ended in a 56-yard kick. At 13-6 the Titans took over at the IND 28 and Ward hit Tate for the tying score. Three minutes later Chestnut blocked Sanchez's punt and Oladejo returned it 14 yards — 0.279 of win probability in one play, and Tennessee's lead.
Indianapolis answered with its best drive of the day (8 plays, 72 yards, Taylor from the 4). Tennessee's winning possession started at its own 17 and lived on a 36-yard pass interference call on Taylor-Britt at Q4 5:26 — free yards that appear nowhere in Ward's passing line — before Slye's 49-yarder. A Johnson sack on third-and-10 and a 4th-and-17 incompletion ended it.
Why the game diverged from the projection
The engine built Tennessee's line off a 0.572 blended pass rate, which assumed chase mode. Tennessee was tied or leading for 1,908 of 3,600 seconds and threw 45% while tied and 0% while leading; the result was 22 attempts and 102 yards against a 222 projection. That is script, not projection error on rate — but the efficiency failed too: -20.1 CPOE in a pocket that produced zero sacks and one QB hit. On the other side the Colts were given 62 plays and ran 82, because their drives kept extending without ending. Rush yards beat the projection by 57 (5.5 a carry, 7.3 right side) while rushing EPA was -0.192 — movement, not value. The 7.5-point miss on Tennessee's total is mostly non-offensive: 13 of 26 points came from the blocked punt and two kicks of 44-plus.
The plan against the game
The plan wrote the underdog path almost correctly and for the right reason — Jones gives it away under pressure, Tennessee runs early against a soft front, a 20-23 point game the Titans win late — and then bet the half of it that failed. It needed Ward's quick game to turn 35 attempts into 240 yards; Tennessee never trailed enough to produce attempts, and checks shows both leans inverted (IND 61.5% pass against a 57.3% season rate, TEN 48.9% against 59.6%). Pace was called right at 123 total plays. The Warren swing factor landed but redistributed to Allen and Mallory rather than Treadwell, which is why D1 missed by 42 yards.
Player by player
Tate was the one Titan who was bet-able regardless of volume: 7 targets, 6-70-1, 64.9% of the team's air yards on a 22-attempt day. Pollard's 19/76 matched the projection almost exactly. Ward's line is a warning — a clean pocket does not fix accuracy. For Indianapolis, Allen is the story: 11 targets, 8-82, 34 YAC, 71% of snaps with Warren out; Mallory's six targets on 52% of snaps are the other half of that vacancy. Taylor's 21/94 plus a 38-yard catch-and-run inflated his receiving line on one play, and his touchdown came from the 4 — the role, not the yardage, is what repeats.
The defenses
Tennessee generated a 22% pressure rate (6 sacks, 11 hits) against a season rate of 11.7%, almost all of it from four rushers against a 26.9% blitz rate. Simmons alone had two sacks, two TFL and the forced fumble. That is a line-matchup result — the Colts gave up four sacks to Houston in Week 3 — more than a Titans trait. Indianapolis, meanwhile, did not touch Ward (4.3% pressure) and still held him to 102 yards, because Tennessee only needed 23 dropbacks. The Colts held at their own 20 when it mattered less than usual; Tennessee's defense allowed 0.145-type field movement all day and then took the ball away three times in scoring territory.
The blueprint
Indianapolis gets beaten by itself — three turnover-tagged weeks out of five before this one, red-zone stalls in Weeks 3 and 5, a line that folds against interior rush — and it gets beaten on the ground, with the run-game tag in Weeks 1, 2 and 5. Tennessee gets beaten by explosive passing (three weeks tagged) and by its own inability to sustain: 53 snaps a game, 0.40 red-zone touchdown rate, -0.158 field EPA. Indianapolis tried the blueprint and had the yardage to cash it; it could not finish, and that is the whole six points.
What the model should take from this
Two real reads: Jones's volume rises with plays rather than falling with a lead, and Allen is the primary short-area target when Warren is out. Two bounces not to price in: the blocked punt and the 36-yard DPI. And one structural correction — when an underdog's path to covering runs through takeaways and special teams rather than offense, its QB's attempt and yardage projections should come down, not up.
Titans offenseagainst theColts defense
Projected TEN offense output — equivalently, what the IND defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBFP | 17(19) | 78(76) | 0.6(0) | 2.6(1) | 2.0(0) | 6(0) | 0(0) |
| RBQ | 4(1) | 11(1) | 0.1(0) | 3.8(1) | 3.0(1) | 18(7) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 7.8(7) | 5.1(6) | 61(70) | 0.3(1) |
| WR | 5.8(7) | 4.0(3) | 48(22) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 2.8(2) | 1.5(1) | 30(3) | 0.1(0) |
| WR | 2.3(2) | 1.3(0) | 24(0) | 0.1(0) |
| WR | 1.7(0) | 1.1(0) | 17(0) | 0.1(0) |
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 2.5 | 1.9 | 13 | 0.1 |
| TE | 1.6(2) | 1.2(0) | 8(0) | 0(0) |
TEN offenserank of 32IND defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 58.8: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 57%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 55%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
TEN offenserank of 32IND defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 4.26: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
TEN offenserank of 32IND defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.97: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 64%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.3%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 1.8%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Colts offenseagainst theTitans defense
Projected IND offense output — equivalently, what the TEN defense allows. The engine blends each offense's season-to-date rates with the defense across from it, anchored on the market's implied points.
| Backs | Car | Ru yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBFP | 20(21) | 82(94) | 1.1(1) | 3.8(4) | 2.9(2) | 21(57) | 0.1(0) |
| RB | 4(4) | 17(27) | 0.2(0) | 0.9(0) | 0.6(0) | 3(0) | 0(0) |
| Receivers | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WRFP | 6.4(8) | 4.3(4) | 50(40) | 0.3(0) |
| WR | 4.6(5) | 3.0(2) | 40(21) | 0.2(0) |
| WRFP | 4.7(11) | 3.2(8) | 29(82) | 0.2(0) |
| WR | 1.3 | 0.7 | 15 | 0.1 |
| WR | 1.0(2) | 0.7(2) | 2(41) | 0(0) |
| WRO | no projected volume | |||
| Tight ends | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEQ | 6.7 | 4.7 | 45 | 0.3 |
IND offenserank of 32TEN defenseEPA / play
Expected points added per play, garbage time excluded: the one-number read of an offense, and of what a defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Success rate
Share of plays that gain enough to stay on schedule.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Points / game
Points scored per game against points allowed per game.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Plays / game
Offensive snaps per game, a pace number: more plays means more volume to go around, not a better team.
Engine 62.3: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 60.8.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass rate
Share of snaps that are dropbacks: how the volume splits between the pass and the run.
Engine 54%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 56%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Explosive plays
Share of plays that go for a chunk: 20+ passing, 10+ rushing.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Third down
The offense's third-down conversion rate against the defense's third-down stop rate.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Red-zone TD rate
Touchdowns per trip inside the 20: finishing drives against the defense that bends or breaks.
Engine 58%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 58%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Giveaways / game
Turnovers the offense gives away per game against the ones the defense takes.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Flags / game
Accepted penalties per game committed by each unit.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
IND offenserank of 32TEN defenseRush EPA / carry
Expected points added per designed run, and per run allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Rush yards / game
Rushing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / carry
Rushing yards per carry: the offense's own against what the defense gives up, blended into the projection.
Engine 3.78: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 4.36.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards before contact
Yards before a defender touches the runner, per carry: the line-and-scheme share of the run game (PFR charting). Feeds each back's efficiency tilt.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
O-line grade
A composite of the line's pass protection and run blocking, offense only.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Box defenders
Average defenders the defense puts in the box on charted snaps (FTN). Ranked most to fewest with no good or bad: a heavy box crowds the run and dares the pass. Defense only; a look, not a grade.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
IND offenserank of 32TEN defensePass EPA / play
Expected points added per dropback, and per dropback allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pass yards / game
Passing yards per game, gained and allowed.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / attempt
Passing yards per attempt, blended into the projection.
Engine 6.88: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 7.02.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Completion rate
Completions per attempt thrown, and per attempt faced.
Engine 63%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 64%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Passer rating
The quarterback rating the offense posts against the one the defense allows.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Sack rate
Sacks per dropback: taken by the offense, generated by the defense.
Engine 5.6%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 6.4%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Pressure rate
Sacks or quarterback hits per dropback, the play-by-play pressure proxy.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
INT rate
Interceptions per attempt: thrown by the offense, forced by the defense.
Engine 2.2%: the blended per-game value the projection used for this game; the league average is 2.2%.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Blitz
Offense: its EPA per dropback when the defense sends five or more rushers, higher is better. Defense: the share of its pass snaps it sends five or more, ranked most to least with no good or bad (FTN charting). Display only, not an engine input.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
Yards / catch
Receiving yards per reception, offense only: where the ball goes once it is caught.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
DPI yards / game
Pass-interference yards per game: drawn by the receivers, committed by the secondary.
Ranks run 1 to 32 on each side, best first: green is a top-10 unit, amber a bottom-10 one.
The elevens, rated
Defenders colored by rating percentile within their position group (2026 wks 1-5 + ½·2025); the offense by production percentile among the position's starter pool. Linemen are unrated. Each defense is last game's snap leaders in a nickel base, minus this week's Out / Doubtful.
Who is listed
Everyone on the clubs' reports, the best-rated man first in his group: the designation, what is hurt, the practice line and the share of the snaps he took last game. Ratings are the same percentiles as the field above.