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NFL · 2026 season · final

NFL Week 4, 2026

The Huffalytics board for NFL week 4: every game with its line and total, the engine's model margin from opponent-adjusted EPA ratings, projected scores, and the single-game parlay plans' player prop calls graded against Kalshi. Below it, projected fantasy leaders, the player outlook and the week's streaming picks at kicker, defense, quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end.

16 games on the board · 16 played · slate 5–0, every leg hit · 16 plans, 181 calls
Plan calls at the line
97–82
Hit rate54%
Graded plans16
Did not play2
Overs at Edge+
68–25
Hit rate73%
At the line52–41 56%
Edge65–28 70%
Unders at Edge+
80–6
Hit rate93%
At the line45–41 52%
Edge67–19 78%
The slate
5 legs
Per leg87.3%
All together50.6%
Fair price-103
So far5–0
Projected leaders
QBBrock Purdy SF · 19.1 (19.6)
RBJahmyr Gibbs DET · 27.1 (17.7)
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba SEA · 21.8 (12.6)
TEBrock Bowers LV · 16.4 (20.6)
Stream picks
KWill Reichard vs MIA · 9.6
DEFMIN DST vs MIA · 10.4
QBC.J. Stroud vs DAL · 17.6
RBDe'Von Achane @ MIN · 12.7
WRJordan Addison vs MIA · 16.0
TET.J. Hockenson vs MIA · 11.4
Week 4 games, lines and plan calls

The slate

the red circle opens the EPA behind a margin or an Overs / Unders record; tap anywhere else on a game to open its page
ⓘ Legend
The dropdown: a red circle marks something that opens on a tap or click. On a game it shows the EPA comparison behind the model margin, the home-field step, the injuries that moved it and the adjusted margin. Tapping the game row anywhere else opens the game page: the projection, each offense against its defense, the starters, the injuries, the plan and the report. On an Overs or Unders record it lists the plan's calls on that side with the Normal / Edge / Edge+ rungs and, once played, what happened.
Line · O/U The closing spread from the favorite's side and the market total. Once played, the total shows the points and whether it went over or under. Shown for context: the engine prices player props, not sides.
Model The engine's own margin for the favorite, from its opponent-adjusted efficiency ratings entering the week. Green = the engine likes the favorite more than the line does; amber = it actually likes the dog.
Adj The model margin with the priced injury reports folded in. ↯ marks a game where the injuries flip the engine's side.
Proj · Score The projected score and the final, favorite first.
Overs · Unders The pre-game single-game parlay plan's player calls, split by side: hits–misses once the box score is in, call counts before. A void is a player who did not play.
Plan cushion Every call is read at three rungs of the player's Kalshi ladder. Normal is the line the plan called. Edge is the listed rung nearest halfway between that line and the ladder's last rung on the easy side. Edge+ is that last rung: the lowest N+ on an over, the highest <N on an under. The pills swap the Overs and Unders columns between them; the record beside each pill is the week's total at that cushion.
Report The post-game report's projection grade, shown once reports are written.
Sorting Click any column header to rank by it; click again to flip.
Plan cushion
OversNormal 52–41Edge 65–28Edge+ 68–25
UndersNormal 45–41Edge 67–19Edge+ 80–6
Game (favorite first) Kickoff Line O/U Model Adj Proj Score OversUnders Report
BAL logoBALvsTEN logoTEN 11:00am -11.5 42.5 42 under +8.9 +8.5 27–16 24–18
3–3
BAL vs TEN over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Elic Ayomanor TENover 1.5 receptionsmiss · actual 1
His role grew (52%, 53%, 80% snaps) while his target count stayed pinned at three in low-attempt games. Add 5-8 team attempts from the chase script and the third look becomes four or five.
Normal2+ -131 ✗Edge2+ -131 ✗Edge+2+ -131 ✗
Derrick Henry BALto scorehit · actual 1
Baltimore's 27-point implied total arrives through the run, and Henry owns the goal line: he has scored in all three games on a team that has taken 24, 16 and 26 carries' worth of short-yardage work. A two-score lead only adds fourth-quarter carries.
NormalTD -208 ✓EdgeTD -208 ✓Edge+TD -208 ✓
Cam Ward TENover 183.5 pass ydshit · actual 222
Dog of 11.5 = attempts. Ward threw 32 and 36 times in the two games TEN trailed; Baltimore just lost Hendrickson (61% of snaps) off a front already generating only 14.1% pressure (rank 20), so the clean pocket that produced 181 yards on 36 attempts at NYG is there again.
Normal184+ -115 ✓Edge150+ -276 ✓Edge+125+ -564 ✓
Rashod Bateman BALover 2.5 receptionsmiss · actual 2
He plays the snaps Flowers does not — 78%, 93%, 88% — and with Flowers managing a hamstring (33% snaps in Week 3) and Chris Moore questionable, the full-time boundary role in a 22-25 attempt game still clears three catches.
Normal3+ +124 ✗Edge2+ -228 ✓Edge+2+ -228 ✓
Wan'Dale Robinson TENover 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 3
An 11.5-point deficit is the exact state in which his target share spikes: he is the underneath/chase receiver in a 6-aDOT offense, and Baltimore's defense concedes short completions (231 pass ypg allowed, rank 19; NO went 27/34 with +14.1 CPOE on them in Week 2).
Normal4+ -142 ✗Edge3+ -360 ✓Edge+2+ -967 ✓
Carnell Tate TENover 41.5 rec ydshit · actual 145
He is the field-stretcher by role, not by script — 44.9% of the air yards at NYG — and Baltimore's secondary is the unit that has been attacked successfully in two straight weeks (5 explosive passes to NO, Humphrey 7/11 for 115 to DAL).
Normal42+ -115 ✓Edge25+ -306 ✓Edge+15+ -788 ✓
3–2
BAL vs TEN under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Derrick Henry BALunder 96.5 rush ydshit · actual 73
The carries will be there; the yards per carry is the question. Tennessee allows 3.64 YPC (rank 9) and 2.43 yards before contact per carry (league 2.54), and Henry has averaged 4.25 and 3.42 in his last two games with three stuffs and -10.83 rushing EPA at Dallas. 96.5 requires ~23 carries at 4.2+.
Normal<97 ✓Edge<140 -525 ✓Edge+<180 -2042 ✓
Mark Andrews BALunder 37.5 rec ydshit · actual 27
The two things that make a TE yardage line work — volume and a soft positional matchup — are both against him. Tennessee is the 3rd-toughest defense in the league in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (7.37/game), and Andrews' snap share fell to 52% in Week 3 in a 20-attempt game.
Normal<38 ✓Edge<80 -1087 ✓Edge+<120 -5268 ✓
Tyjae Spears TENunder 39.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 6
Pollard has taken the backfield over (7 → 14 → 17 carries) while Spears, managing the same ankle for weeks, got 3 carries for 5 yards in Week 3. A trailing script also funnels passing-down work to whoever is protecting, and Pollard caught 4 of 4 at NYG.
Normal<40 ✓Edge<40 ✓Edge+<40 ✓
Zay Flowers BALunder 5.5 receptionsmiss · actual 8
A hamstring-managed 30% snap share inside a 22-25 attempt offense caps his catch count. He has produced on six targets twice; six targets does not often become six catches, and his value is per-route yardage, not reception volume.
Normal<6 -148 ✗Edge<9 -1236 ✓Edge+<11 ✓
Lamar Jackson BALunder 216.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 222
This is the plan's standing read on Baltimore and it has been right twice: they do not throw when the game is not forcing them to, and an 11.5-point home favorite against a 52-play offense will never be forced. Fewer attempts, not worse efficiency.
Normal<217 ✗Edge<275 -458 ✓Edge+<350 -3476 ✓
 A 88
MIN logoMINvsMIA logoMIA 2:05pm -10 38.5 25 under +9.0 +8.9 24–14 15–10
4–2 1 void
MIN vs MIA over calls · 7 · graded off the box score
Malik Willis MIAover 165.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 85
Script: Miami should trail by two scores, cannot run (Gordon 2.4 YPC into a front allowing 3.52), and MIN concedes passing yardage while denying points — 265 pass ypg allowed (26th) with 7 explosives to GB and 3 to TB. The yards are the part of Miami's profile that has shown up every week.
Normal166+ -115 ✗Edge125+ -381 ✗Edge+100+ -788 ✗
Malik Washington MIAover 3.5 receptionshit · actual 5
Miami trails and throws 32+ into a front that stops the run; with Douglas out for a second straight week Washington is the unambiguous target leader, and MIN's pressure pushes throws short and quick, which helps a reception line more than a yardage line.
Normal4+ -183 ✓Edge3+ -404 ✓Edge+2+ -1236 ✓
Greg Dulcich MIAover 2.5 receptionsdid not play
Pass-heavy trailing script plus pressure-driven short throws; Dulcich is the stable underneath role in this offense and the Week 3 report graded him the projection's best call.
Normal3+ -148Edge2+ -430Edge+2+ -430
Jordan Addison MINover 3.5 receptionshit · actual 4
Same mechanism as his yardage: sole WR1 on 95%+ of snaps against a defense that generates no pressure, so completions come in bunches even on 25-28 attempts.
Normal4+ -208 ✓Edge3+ -458 ✓Edge+2+ -1428 ✓
T.J. Hockenson MINover 29.5 rec ydshit · actual 119
Two target vacancies at once: Jefferson out and Josh Oliver to IR (torn biceps, Rotowire Sep 29) leaves Hockenson as the only established TE on the roster, in an offense that funnels short-area throws to tight ends when it is protecting a lead.
Normal30+ ✓Edge25+ -290 ✓Edge+15+ -609 ✓
Aaron Jones MINto scoremiss · actual 0
Mason is on IR, Jefferson is out, MIN is a 10.5-point favorite with a 24.5 implied total and no run game to speak of — which means the scoring chances that do come are short-yardage carries for the only back on the roster, against a Miami defense allowing 3/4, 5/5 and 3/5 red-zone TDs.
NormalTD -137 ✗EdgeTD -137 ✗Edge+TD -137 ✗
Jordan Addison MINover 49.5 rec ydshit · actual 52
Jefferson ruled out Friday makes Addison the primary target against a defense allowing 9.12 Y/A (31st) and 0.47 EPA/dropback (31st) with zero sacks in three games — clean pockets and deep shots are exactly how Miami has been beaten in all three weeks.
Normal50+ -183 ✓Edge40+ -290 ✓Edge+25+ -564 ✓
2–4
MIN vs MIA under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Ollie Gordon II MIAunder 30.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 100
Volume and efficiency both get squeezed: Wright is back to split carries (Hafley Friday: 'good to go'), and the carries that remain run into the #2 rush-EPA/#2 rush-success defense at 3.52 YPC allowed and 1.92 YBC/carry — plus a trailing script that shortens the run menu.
Normal<31 ✗Edge<70 -2580 ✗Edge+<100 -10645 ✗
Ollie Gordon II MIAunder 39.5 rush+rec ydsmiss · actual 100
Same squeeze as his rushing line, and the receiving add-on is thin — 3 catches for 14 yards is his only passing-game sample, in a game where Herman took snaps on 37%.
Normal<40 ✗Edge<55 -3476 ✗Edge+<80 -2042 ✗
Aaron Jones MINunder 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 4
His receiving work is one game old and dump-off dependent (-11 air yards, 42 YAC vs TB) on a day MIN threw 29 times; in a lead-protecting 25-28 attempt game with Addison and Hockenson consolidating targets, 4+ catches requires another six-target day.
Normal<4 -161 ✗Edge<6 -788 ✓Edge+<8 -3476 ✓
Jaylen Wright MIAunder 30.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 7
First game back from a foot issue, in a committee, with no pass-game role established, against the front that has allowed 3.52 YPC and the fewest successful runs in the league. Snap shares of 7% and 5% are the base to build from.
Normal<31 ✓Edge<65 -489 ✓Edge+<90 -5268 ✓
Kyler Murray MINunder 207.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 247
Favorite-with-a-lead volume collapse, now with his best receiver out. MIN's own pass rate is 49.1% and it has run 52-61 plays; the reviewed Week 2 plan already learned this — 31.6 projected attempts became 20 while leading, 143 yards.
Normal<208 ✗Edge<275 -609 ✓Edge+<350 -3476 ✓
Malik Willis MIAunder 0.5 pass TDshit · actual 0
Miami generates yards and not points, and MIN specifically takes away the red zone. A team total of 14 on a 38.5 total likely means one TD or fewer, and Willis's TD path has partly been his own legs.
Normal<1 -107 ✓Edge<2 -609 ✓Edge+<3 -2580 ✓
 C 63
SEA logoSEAvsLAC logoLAC 2:25pm -7 42.5 53 over +8.5 +9.1 25–18 30–23
4–1
SEA vs LAC over calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Emanuel Wilson SEAover 39.5 rush ydshit · actual 81
Price is OUT (chest; Macdonald ruled him out Friday per Rotowire) and Charbonnet is not eligible, so Wilson is the only early-down back on a 7-point home favorite whose leading script produced a 30.8% pass rate and 40 team carries in Week 2. He gets that volume against a LAC front without Tomlinson that just allowed BUF 176 yards at 5.4 YPC with five 10+ runs, 5.9 up the middle.
Normal40+ -183 ✓Edge30+ -360 ✓Edge+20+ -719 ✓
Tre Harris LACover 33.5 rec ydshit · actual 60
With McConkey hobbled or out and Thompson ruled out, Harris is the downfield share in a trailing script that should push Herbert past 30 attempts. He took 7 targets and 59 air yards on only 58% of snaps in Week 3 — the snap count is the thing that goes up, not the role.
Normal34+ -114 ✓Edge25+ -199 ✓Edge+15+ -360 ✓
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEAover 90.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 76
He is the offense: 49.4%, 53.3% and 52.1% air-yards shares, 11/11/14 targets regardless of script or quarterback. He meets a LAC secondary allowing 7.978 YPA (26th) and explosive passes in every game, with Derwin James (96% snaps), Molden and Donte Jackson all Questionable and Cam Hart (14th percentile) having played 81% of the Week 3 snaps.
Normal91+ -114 ✗Edge70+ -251 ✓Edge+50+ -719 ✓
Oronde Gadsden II LACover 25.5 rec ydshit · actual 36
Role, not script: Kolar is OUT (forearm) and Njoku is on IR, making Gadsden the clear TE1 — his snap share has climbed 18% to 44% to 57% — and McConkey's foot (Questionable) pushes more short-area targets inside. Seattle's relative soft spot is the TE (13th in TE fantasy points allowed) versus 1st-4th rankings everywhere else; with the perimeter shut down, the checkdown tree is where LAC's volume has to go.
Normal26+ -110 ✓Edge25+ -121 ✓Edge+15+ -263 ✓
Emanuel Wilson SEAto scorehit · actual 2
Same lead-back monopoly, applied at the goal line: Seattle scored 4 red-zone TDs on 5 trips at WAS and 3 of 5 at ARI, and a 24.8-point implied total with a run-forward leading script funnels the short scores to the only early-down back.
NormalTD +134 ✓EdgeTD +134 ✓Edge+TD +134 ✓
4–2
SEA vs LAC under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Keaton Mitchell LACunder 39.5 rush+rec ydsmiss · actual 63
His Week 3 usefulness (8-52 plus a receiving TD) came on two 10+ runs against a BUF front LAC gashed; this week it's the 1st-ranked run-success defense at 3.263 YPC. He is a 38%-snap change-of-pace back whose receiving line was 3-for-(-5) in that same game.
Normal<40 ✗Edge<55 -1684 ✗Edge+<80 -2580 ✓
Rashid Shaheed SEAunder 22.5 rec ydshit · actual 20
Fourth option on an offense that routes half its air yards to one man, with the snap share trending down (66%, 56%, 46%) and a leading script cutting total attempts. RotoBaller (Thu Oct 1 and Fri Oct 2) describes him as un-startable and notes Seattle's passing game 'remains extremely concentrated' around JSN; he is a full practice participant (hip), so this is role, not availability.
Normal<23 ✓Edge<50 -609 ✓Edge+<80 -3476 ✓
AJ Barner SEAunder 31.5 rec ydshit · actual 12
His Week 3 line was pure trailing-script checkdown volume — 9 targets on a 10-yard air-yard diet, 69 of his yards from YAC — in a game Seattle spent behind from Q1 9:14 with a 70.1% pass rate. As a 7-point favorite expected to lead, he reverts to the 1-2 target role of Weeks 1-2.
Normal<32 ✓Edge<60 -660 ✓Edge+<90 -5268 ✓
Omarion Hampton LACunder 44.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 45
Seattle is 1st in the league in both rush EPA allowed (-0.366) and rush success allowed (0.229) and 3rd in YPC (3.263); LAC's own YBC/carry is 2.383, below the 2.54 league mark, behind a line without four of its starters. Hampton's snap share is also falling — 58%, 63%, 42% — with Mitchell at 38% in Week 3, so the committee caps the carry floor that bailed him out against LV.
Normal<45 ✗Edge<80 -609 ✓Edge+<110 -3476 ✓
Justin Herbert LACunder 198.5 pass ydshit · actual 189
Seattle allows 152 pass yards a game and 4.957 YPA, both 1st in the league, while generating 20.0% pressure (4th) with Williams/Lawrence/Murphy/Hall all healthy. LAC's line is without Pipkins, Awosika, Biadasz and Taylor and has allowed an 8.0% sack rate and 20%+ pressure in two of three weeks; Herbert is 2-of-8 and 4-of-11 on deep throws the last two weeks with McConkey questionable.
Normal<199 ✓Edge<250 -381 ✓Edge+<300 -1428 ✓
Quentin Johnston LACunder 2.5 receptionshit · actual 1
The engine converts his 6.9 projected targets at a 67% catch rate. His actual catch rate is 6-of-17 (35%) across three games with Herbert at 59.1% completions overall, and this week it's the #1 pass defense by YPA with Witherspoon (92nd pct) on the perimeter.
Normal<3 +140 ✓Edge<6 -788 ✓Edge+<8 -5268 ✓
 B 78
BUF logoBUFvsNE logoNE 11:00am -7 49.5 55 over +5.9 +6.0 28–21 26–29
5–1
BUF vs NE over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Keon Coleman BUFover 12.5 rec ydshit · actual 116
A cheap line on a player whose single catch last week went for 37 yards. With Gonzalez OUT, Buffalo's downfield shots have a soft side; Coleman's role is boom-or-nothing but one chunk clears this.
Normal13+ -116 ✓Edge13+ -116 ✓Edge+13+ -116 ✓
Romeo Doubs NEover 38.5 rec ydshit · actual 58
He is the designed-deep target in an offense that will be chasing points against the defense that has allowed an explosive pass or four every single week.
Normal39+ -115 ✓Edge25+ -251 ✓Edge+15+ -525 ✓
Mack Hollins NEover 43.5 rec ydshit · actual 53
He inherited A.J. Brown's perimeter/deep role and keeps it (Brown not practice-eligible until Week 6). High-dropback script plus Buffalo's weekly explosive concessions and a secondary likely without Benford — Alford grades 0th percentile among corners.
Normal44+ -114 ✓Edge25+ -306 ✓Edge+15+ -609 ✓
Drake Maye NEover 225.5 pass ydshit · actual 269
Seven-point road dog whose run game is at 3.859 YPC: New England throws. Its trailing pass rate was 0.765 at SEA and 0.592 at JAX, and Buffalo is the league's most generous yardage defense through the air.
Normal226+ -115 ✓Edge200+ -218 ✓Edge+150+ -967 ✓
James Cook BUFover 87.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 75
Buffalo's lead script plus a New England front that loses its best interior player. Cook has 21 and 24 carries in consecutive weeks as Buffalo went run-first regardless of score; Barmore (OUT) ceded snaps to Cory Durden, a 9th-percentile interior defender, and NE allowed JAX 137 on 30 carries protecting a lead in Week 3.
Normal88+ -114 ✗Edge70+ -208 ✓Edge+50+ -564 ✓
Josh Allen BUFto scorehit · actual 1
Buffalo's red-zone scoring has gone through Allen's legs, not the passing game: every touchdown in Week 3 was a 1-, 1- or 3-yard run, and he has two rushing scores in each of the three games. A run-lead script against a front missing Barmore raises short-yardage keeper volume.
NormalTD -121 ✓EdgeTD -121 ✓Edge+TD -121 ✓
2–4
BUF vs NE under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Dalton Kincaid BUFunder 52.5 rec ydshit · actual 7
A run-lead script caps Buffalo near 28-31 attempts, and when that happened in Week 3 Kincaid drew three targets. Moore is healthy and concentrating targets (10 last week, 47.7% air-yards share), which squeezes the tight end in a low-volume game.
Normal<53 ✓Edge<100 -1236 ✓Edge+<140 -5268 ✓
Khalil Shakir BUFunder 40.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 82
Target displacement behind Moore and Kincaid in a game that may not reach 30 attempts; Ty Johnson has taken the underneath passing-down work.
Normal<41 ✗Edge<70 -609 ✗Edge+<100 -3476 ✓
Josh Allen BUFunder 236.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 253
The run-lead script that drives the Cook over has to come out of somewhere: Allen's attempts. Buffalo's early-down pass rate was 0.392 in Week 3 and its lead scripts have produced 26 and 31 attempts.
Normal<237 ✗Edge<300 -430 ✓Edge+<350 -1684 ✓
Hunter Henry NEunder 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 5
When New England chases points its aDOT climbs and the intermediate/TE layer gets skipped — exactly what happened at JAX (aDOT 11.7, Henry 2 targets on a 70% snap share). This projects as another chase game.
Normal<4 -142 ✗Edge<7 -1428 ✓Edge+<9 ✓
Drake Maye NEunder 1.5 pass TDsmiss · actual 3
The yards are real and the touchdowns are not: this offense stalls at the boundary of scoring. Buffalo's defense concedes yards (rank 28 in pass ypg) while New England converts red-zone trips into field goals and giveaways.
Normal<2 -148 ✗Edge<3 -609 ✗Edge+<4 -2042 ✓
TreVeyon Henderson NEunder 51.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 42
Trailing teams don't hand off. New England's backfield is already a three-way split and Henderson's snap share fell from 60% to 37%; a 7-point deficit script pushes carries toward Maye dropbacks.
Normal<52 ✓Edge<75 -381 ✓Edge+<100 -1236 ✓
 C 65
DET logoDET@CAR logoCAR SNF -4.5 52.5 58 over -1.1 -0.3 28–24 26–32
4–2
DET @ CAR over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Tommy Tremble CARover 12.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 12
Second tight end in a receiver room down Legette and possibly Coker, against the worst TE matchup in the league, in a high-attempt script.
Normal13+ -114 ✗Edge13+ -114 ✗Edge+13+ -114 ✗
Darren Waller CARover 23.5 rec ydshit · actual 36
Legette out and Coker limited concentrate targets, and Detroit is 32nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends — the middle of the field is where Carolina's reliable yards are.
Normal24+ -116 ✓Edge15+ -322 ✓Edge+15+ -322 ✓
Bryce Young CARover 245.5 pass ydshit · actual 329
Underdog by 3.5 against the league's worst pass defense, with a run game that can't carry the offense — Young throws 38-42 times whether Carolina is tied or chasing.
Normal246+ -115 ✓Edge200+ -290 ✓Edge+150+ -1236 ✓
Chuba Hubbard CARover 66.5 rush ydshit · actual 122
Workload has grown every week (10, 12, 19 carries, 84% snaps) and Detroit's front is the soft side of this matchup even in a game Carolina may trail; Canales publicly flagged the run game as central.
Normal67+ -114 ✓Edge50+ -251 ✓Edge+40+ -458 ✓
Jahmyr Gibbs DETover 94.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 46
Favored on the road against the worst run defense in football, in a script where Detroit's early-down run rate rises with a lead. Gibbs gets both the carries and the yards per carry.
Normal95+ -114 ✗Edge80+ -218 ✗Edge+60+ -489 ✗
Tetairoa McMillan CARover 70.5 rec ydshit · actual 192
Full-time snaps on a 40-attempt night against a secondary ranked 30th against WRs and missing two safeties; his 5-target Week 3 came with Tremayne absorbing the air yards in a game Carolina never led until late.
Normal71+ -114 ✓Edge50+ -239 ✓Edge+25+ -609 ✓
0–4
DET @ CAR under calls · 4 · graded off the box score
Amon-Ra St. Brown DETunder 7.5 receptionsmiss · actual 8
A run-script game against the league's worst run defense caps Detroit's dropbacks; 7.5 receptions needs 10-11 targets, which Detroit only produces when it is behind.
Normal<8 -154 ✗Edge<11 -869 ✓Edge+<14 ✓
Sam LaPorta DETunder 4.5 receptionsmiss · actual 8
Same mechanism — fewer dropbacks — against the one part of Carolina's defense that has held up, with Devin Lloyd back in the middle after missing Week 3.
Normal<5 -142 ✗Edge<8 -1428 ✗Edge+<10 ✓
Jared Goff DETunder 260.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 412
Detroit's path of least resistance is on the ground, which costs Goff attempts, and his aDOT in the two games Detroit led was 5.3 and 6.0 — short throws do not produce 260 yards on 32 attempts.
Normal<261 ✗Edge<325 -564 ✗Edge+<400 -5268 ✗
Jameson Williams DETunder 50.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 102
Four or five targets at a high aDOT is a binary outcome, and in a leading script Detroit takes fewer shots; he needs one explosive to clear.
Normal<51 ✗Edge<100 -788 ✗Edge+<140 -5268 ✓
 F 37
KC logoKC@LV logoLV 2:25pm -4.5 47.5 57 over -1.4 -1.4 26–22 30–27
2–4
KC @ LV over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Kenneth Walker III KCover 2.5 receptionsmiss · actual 1
The flip side of the run being stuffed: against a front generating 23.7% pressure, KC's answer is the checkdown. Walker's targets track team attempts, and this script raises attempts.
Normal3+ -154 ✗Edge2+ -430 ✗Edge+2+ -430 ✗
Michael Mayer LVover 22.5 rec ydshit · actual 82
Same clean-pocket, middle-of-the-field mechanism as Bowers, with a snap share that has climbed every week (81%, 84%, 87%) and a KC defense that gets out-possessed by teams willing to grind (73 plays allowed to MIA).
Normal23+ -115 ✓Edge15+ -208 ✓Edge+15+ -208 ✓
Patrick Mahomes KCover 1.5 pass TDshit · actual 2
With 26 implied points and the run game capped inside the 20 (4th-and-1 stuff at the MIA 12, 2.8 YPC on middle runs), KC's red-zone scores come through the air, and LV's red-zone defense has bent: 4 TDs on 5 NO trips in Week 3, 2-for-2 to LAC in Week 2.
Normal2+ -137 ✓Edge1+ -788 ✓Edge+1+ -788 ✓
Travis Kelce KCover 47.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 15
LV's coverage strength is the perimeter (2nd in fantasy allowed to WRs, Stokes 97th pct) and its weakness is the middle: 21.1 fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, dead last, with pass success allowed 25th. When KC's run is capped, the short middle is where the volume goes.
Normal48+ -114 ✗Edge40+ -168 ✗Edge+25+ -430 ✗
Patrick Mahomes KCover 238.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 225
LV takes away the run (-0.305 EPA/rush allowed, 5th) without being able to take away the short pass (25th in pass success allowed, 30th vs TEs). That pushes KC's pass rate above the blended 55.3% — the same mechanism that produced 47 attempts in Week 2 when the engine had him at 30.5.
Normal239+ -115 ✗Edge200+ -290 ✓Edge+150+ -1236 ✓
Brock Bowers LVover 6.5 receptionsmiss · actual 6
KC cannot pressure the quarterback — 0 sacks and 12.1% pressure vs IND, 0 sacks and one hit on 42 dropbacks vs MIA, 10.5% season pressure (28th). Cousins in a clean pocket throws short and to the middle, and KC allows 14.1 fantasy points per game to TEs (19th) with linebackers Bolton/Tranquill handling a 79%-snap target hog.
Normal7+ -131 ✗Edge5+ -489 ✓Edge+4+ -1087 ✓
0–4 1 void
KC @ LV under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Kenneth Walker III KCunder 87.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 177
LV's front is the best thing KC has faced on the ground: -0.305 EPA/rush allowed (5th), 36.5% rush success allowed (11th), with Crosby/Paye/Koonce setting edges and Hemingway (89th pct) and Fatukasi (85th) inside. KC's 5.0 YPC is propped up by 2.01 YBC/carry — the unstable, after-contact half.
Normal<88 ✗Edge<130 -609 ✗Edge+<180 -2042 ✓
Xavier Worthy KCunder 35.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 70
LV's outside corners are its best unit (2nd in fantasy points allowed to WRs, Stokes 97th pct, Taron Johnson 75th in the slot), and Worthy's role is the one KC can live without — the air-yards share has not converted all season.
Normal<36 ✗Edge<70 -788 ✗Edge+<100 -3476 ✓
Ashton Jeanty LVunder 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 6
Bowers's return re-concentrated the target tree. With Bowers at 13 targets and Mayer at 87% of snaps, Jeanty's checkdown work shrank — and KC's defense gives up its yardage to possession receivers in the middle, not to backs (10th in fantasy allowed to RBs).
Normal<4 -142 ✗Edge<6 -788 ✗Edge+<8 -3476 ✓
Rashee Rice KCunder 55.5 rec ydsdid not play
Rice is KC's perimeter air-yards alpha (46.6% share in Week 3) and that is precisely the facet LV defends best — 2nd in fantasy points allowed to WRs with Stokes at the 97th percentile. The KC yards in this game should route through the TE and the backfield instead.
Normal<56Edge<90 -430Edge+<130 -3476
Kirk Cousins LVunder 223.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 365
KC's secondary concedes completions but almost no yardage: 183.7 pass YPG allowed (3rd), 5.8 YPA (3rd), 1st in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Cousins's profile — short throws, 1-of-3 deep at NO, 1-of-6 deep in Week 1 — is the one that gets capped by a defense that tackles underneath, even with no pass rush.
Normal<224 ✗Edge<275 -360 ✗Edge+<350 -2042 ✗
 D 52
IND logoIND@WAS logoWAS 7:30am -4.5 46.5 43 under -2.6 -1.8 26–21 30–13
1–5
IND @ WAS over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Antonio Williams WASover 1.5 receptionshit · actual 3
He is the WR2 by default if McLaurin sits — FantasyPros named him and Diggs as the top two Saturday morning — on a team that will be throwing from behind. His catch profile is reliable at low depth (7 of 11 on the season) rather than the boom/bust deep role he had in Week 3.
Normal2+ -290 ✓Edge2+ -290 ✓Edge+2+ -290 ✓
Stefon Diggs WASover 41.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 35
McLaurin's expected absence hands Diggs the WR1 role and the downfield looks Mariota funnelled to McLaurin (110 of 241 air yards in Week 3) — against an Indy defense ranked 30th in Y/A and 20th in WR fantasy points that has generated under 10% pressure in two of three games, giving Mariota time to find him.
Normal42+ -114 ✗Edge25+ -660 ✓Edge+15+ -1236 ✓
Marcus Mariota WASover 210.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 46
Dog script plus a run game averaging 3.02 YPC means attempts stay in the low-to-mid 30s, and Indy has not pressured anyone consistently — tagged 'no pass rush' in two of three weeks (10.3% and 7.8% generated) while allowing 291.0 pass yards a game.
Normal211+ -115 ✗Edge175+ -251 ✗Edge+150+ -458 ✗
Josh Downs INDover 63.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 16
With Allen out and Pierce on IR, Downs is the only established wideout on a team that has to throw because Washington's front shuts down the run. He has already taken 62.3% of the air yards in a game (Week 3) with the room this thin, and he meets a secondary 32nd in WR fantasy points allowed, missing Cross at safety.
Normal64+ -115 ✗Edge50+ -276 ✗Edge+40+ -458 ✗
Daniel Jones INDover 221.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 143
Washington's run defense is the one that forces this script: 82 rush yards and -0.323 EPA/rush allowed per game means Indy's early-down runs stall and attempts climb, exactly as Seattle's did in Week 3 (18 carries, 46 attempts for Darnold). The receiving corps being thin does not reduce attempts, it concentrates them.
Normal222+ -115 ✗Edge175+ -360 ✗Edge+150+ -788 ✗
Tyler Warren INDover 5.5 receptionsmiss · actual 5
Full-time tight end (89-94% snaps every week) in a short-area offense that just lost its two outside receivers, facing a defense 31st in TE fantasy points allowed. His role is volume-and-YAC, which is the exact category Washington has bled — Seattle's underneath pass catchers took 190 YAC on a 6.3 aDOT in Week 3.
Normal6+ -116 ✗Edge4+ -430 ✓Edge+3+ -967 ✓
5–1
IND @ WAS under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Jonathan Taylor INDunder 88.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 95
The matchup attacks exactly what Taylor has lost. Washington is 3rd in rush yards allowed (82.0), 4th in rush EPA (-0.323), 6th in rush success and 2nd in RB fantasy points, and has held three straight offenses to negative rush EPA. Taylor's own YBC/carry input is 1.723 against a 2.54 league mark — he is being hit at the line already.
Normal<89 ✗Edge<130 -489 ✓Edge+<180 -3476 ✓
Jonathan Taylor INDunder 113.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 97
Same mechanism, and the receiving side does not bail him out: Washington is 2nd in RB fantasy points allowed and Taylor's receiving line has shrunk as the Colts' aDOT moved up — 23, 40 then 4 yards on a -13 air-yard profile.
Normal<114 ✓Edge<135 -218 ✓Edge+<160 -525 ✓
Daniel Jones INDunder 1.5 pass TDshit · actual 0
Indy's problem is the red zone, not the field. Three straight games of exactly one passing touchdown, 1-for-3 in the red zone in Week 3 with four Shrader field goals, and the two outside receivers who stretch the field are gone — the goal-line menu is Taylor and Warren on short throws.
Normal<2 -121 ✓Edge<3 -564 ✓Edge+<4 -1684 ✓
Marcus Mariota WASunder 1.5 pass TDshit · actual 0
His three-TD game came entirely off short fields created by three Seattle turnovers (drive starts at the SEA 21 and 43); without that, a 21-point implied total split with a goal-line back and a kicker leaves roughly one passing score. Losing McLaurin removes the one player who turned a drive into a 30-yard touchdown.
Normal<2 -175 ✓Edge<3 -788 ✓Edge+<4 -2580 ✓
Chig Okonkwo WASunder 29.5 rec ydshit · actual 5
First game back from a hamstring that cost him two weeks, limited all week, in a tight-end room that has been splitting snaps three ways (Bates 54%, Sinnott 49%, Yankoff 46% in Week 3). The 5.4 targets the engine gives him are a projection of a role he has not yet held with Mariota.
Normal<30 ✓Edge<60 -660 ✓Edge+<80 -2580 ✓
Jacory Croskey-Merritt WASunder 57.5 rush ydshit · actual 15
Volume is guaranteed with White out, but production has never come: 1.9 YPC in Week 3 with three stuffs, -7.21 rushing EPA and his only explosive run wiped by penalty. Indy's soft allowed YPC (4.874) was built against Baltimore and Kansas City; in Week 3 the same front held Houston to 3.33 YPC and zero 10+ runs — the Week 3 report's own lesson was to weight the offense's rate when the two disagree by more than a yard.
Normal<58 ✓Edge<90 -430 ✓Edge+<130 -2580 ✓
 C 67
LA logoLA@PHI logoPHI 11:00am -3.5 42.5 44 over +3.2 +5.6 23–20 24–20
4–2
LA @ PHI over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Dontayvion Wicks PHIover 40.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 18
Same reallocation; he is the only Eagle who has produced downfield this year (73 and 74 yards in the wins), and with Smith out the deep shots have one address.
Normal41+ -114 ✗Edge25+ -430 ✗Edge+15+ -1087 ✓
Dontayvion Wicks PHIover 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 3
Smith (100% snap share), Goedert and Brown are all ruled out; both Friday reports name Wicks and Lemon as Hurts' primary options. Wicks has run 88-91% of snaps in two of three weeks already as the designated third-down/deep target; his 4-6 targets per game should become 8-plus with 60-plus air-yard share available.
Normal4+ -148 ✗Edge3+ -322 ✓Edge+2+ -967 ✓
Zach Ertz PHIover 1.5 receptionshit · actual 2
Goedert ruled out again (Rotowire/FantasyPros, Fri) and Stowers and Calcaterra on IR leave Ertz and Mundt splitting an every-down TE role in an offense that has lost its top two receiving options; Hurts' aDOT fell to 6.0 at Chicago, which is checkdown and seam territory.
Normal2+ -276 ✓Edge2+ -276 ✓Edge+2+ -276 ✓
Kyren Williams LAover 74.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 147
He is both the lead back and the passing-down back (70.9% snaps at Denver, 7 targets), so he is insulated against either script: if LA leads he runs, if LA throws he checks down. Philadelphia has allowed 127.3 rush yards a game (rank 25) on volume, and Baun's absence (92% of snaps) weakens the second level.
Normal75+ -114 ✓Edge75+ -114 ✓Edge+75+ -114 ✓
Tyler Higbee LAover 2.5 receptionshit · actual 5
Ferguson is on IR and Parkinson logged three DNPs as a Questionable; Rotowire's Friday note says if Parkinson sits, Higbee and Davis Allen take substantial roles. Higbee already showed what the consolidated role looks like at Denver.
Normal3+ ✓Edge3+ ✓Edge+3+ ✓
Matthew Stafford LAover 251.5 pass ydshit · actual 317
Philadelphia's defense is the exact profile the Week 2 report flagged as a passer-yardage over: ≤1 sack a game, pressure under 10%. Stafford with a clean pocket has gone 327 and 390; with 27.6% pressure he went 155. Nacua's return restores the two-receiver vertical structure that produced those games, and PHI's secondary allows 6.75 YPA while missing Epps.
Normal252+ -114 ✓Edge225+ -191 ✓Edge+175+ -564 ✓
4–1
LA @ PHI under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Puka Nacua LAunder 6.5 receptionsmiss · actual 9
He has not played since Week 1 and McVay told reporters Friday the Rams were still determining his workload (Rotowire, via Barshop). A receiver on a snap ramp in a 62-play game needs near-full participation to reach seven catches, and LA still has Adams, Higbee and Williams absorbing targets.
Normal<7 -154 ✗Edge<10 -788 ✓Edge+<13 ✓
Saquon Barkley PHIunder 12.5 rec ydshit · actual 2
His receiving role is functionally dead regardless of script — the prior report's explicit conclusion was to decouple his rush and receiving projections — and Shipley (full practice Friday, no designation) is the back who gets the passing-down looks.
Normal<13 ✓Edge<40 -869 ✓Edge+<60 -3476 ✓
Saquon Barkley PHIunder 76.5 rush ydshit · actual 8
PHI is a home dog with the league's thinnest receiving corps; if it trails, carries evaporate — it ran 19 times in 50 plays at Chicago while averaging 5.6 a carry. And LA's run defense has not been run on since Week 1: NYG 2.5 YPC with zero explosive runs, DEN 3.1 YPC, 4.0 YPC and 101 rush yards a game allowed on the season.
Normal<77 ✓Edge<120 -967 ✓Edge+<160 -10645 ✓
Davante Adams LAunder 67.5 rec ydshit · actual 32
Adams' 15-332-2 over two weeks came with Nacua out; Rotowire (Friday) reports he reverts to WR2 with Nacua cleared. In the one game both played he was a 54% snap, 6-target complement. Against LA's own structure the air-yards share that produced those numbers (59.8%, then 43.8%) goes back to Nacua.
Normal<68 ✓Edge<120 -788 ✓Edge+<170 -5268 ✓
Konata Mumpfield LAunder 19.5 rec ydshit · actual 7
His 8-target, 73% snap game at Denver was a direct consequence of Nacua's absence in an 84-play, 55-attempt outlier. Nacua back plus a projected 62-play game cuts both the snaps and the total attempts he's sharing in.
Normal<20 ✓Edge<20 ✓Edge+<20 ✓
 C 55
CHI logoCHIvsNYJ logoNYJ 11:00am -3.5 43.5 35 under +5.2 +7.7 24–20 23–12
1–5
CHI vs NYJ over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Rome Odunze CHIover 2.5 receptionshit · actual 6
Odunze's snap share has gone 48% to 84% to 85%, and his target count has climbed with it even in the short-game plan. Chicago is likely to need 30+ attempts in a one-score game, and he is the only outside-the-numbers volume on the roster.
Normal3+ -112 ✓Edge2+ -306 ✓Edge+2+ -306 ✓
Kalif Raymond CHIover 32.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 6
With a backup quarterback and a replacement left tackle, Chicago's plan is the Week 3 plan: 6.1 aDOT, 120 team YAC. Raymond is the designated quick-game outlet and his production scales with that, not with the game plan's ambition. New York's defense allows few pass yards but was beaten underneath by Detroit for 126 YAC on a 6.0 aDOT.
Normal33+ -114 ✗Edge25+ -175 ✗Edge+15+ -404 ✗
D'Andre Swift CHIto scoremiss · actual 0
Chicago's implied 23.5 points with a backup quarterback means the scoring comes on the ground and near the goal line. Swift handles 20.7 touches per game and practiced in full Friday with no designation (Rotowire, Oct 2).
NormalTD -103 ✗EdgeTD -103 ✗Edge+TD -103 ✗
Garrett Wilson NYJover 6.5 receptionsmiss · actual 3
Mitchell and Taylor out for a second straight week concentrate targets; Wilson drew 13 of them at Detroit in that configuration. More dropbacks against a secondary whose top corner charts at the 0 percentile in his group, with the slot defender (Lewis) doubtful, keeps the catchable volume high.
Normal7+ +105 ✗Edge5+ -340 ✗Edge+4+ -719 ✗
Geno Smith NYJover 227.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 119
With Hall out and a run game at 3.26 YPC / 1.85 YBC, New York has no way to stay on schedule except by throwing, and it meets the one front that cannot make that uncomfortable: Chicago generates 11.4% pressure (26th in the league). Clean-pocket Geno is the Week 1 and Week 3 version — +12.8 and +14.8 CPOE.
Normal228+ -114 ✗Edge200+ -218 ✗Edge+150+ -869 ✗
Garrett Wilson NYJover 76.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 27
Same volume mechanism, plus air-yards concentration: Wilson has carried ~49% of the Jets' air yards in two of three weeks. A clean pocket is what turns that share into yardage — his 107-yard day came on 44 dropbacks.
Normal77+ -115 ✗Edge60+ -191 ✗Edge+40+ -489 ✗
3–2
CHI vs NYJ under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Braelon Allen NYJunder 71.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 67
Allen inherits the lead role, but the Jets' run game is the problem, not the back: 3.26 YPC and 1.85 yards before contact on the season, with stuffs piling up in Weeks 2 and 3. A pass-heavy script as a 3.5-point dog caps the carry count at roughly 15-17, and Allen's own three-week rate is 3.2 per carry. Chicago's 5.09 YPC allowed is the counterargument, but the Week 3 report drew the explicit lesson from this exact blend: do not raise a sub-3.5-YPC offense toward a soft run defense.
Normal<72 ✓Edge<95 -340 ✓Edge+<120 -967 ✓
Colston Loveland CHIunder 33.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 57
Full-time snaps have not produced targets in any week, and the Bears' passing volume under a backup runs through Raymond, Burden and the backs. New York is 6th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Normal<34 ✗Edge<60 -489 ✓Edge+<80 -1684 ✓
Tyson Bagent CHIunder 1.5 pass TDshit · actual 0
Chicago's touchdowns in this script come on the ground, and its red-zone conversion has been the recurring failure: 0-for-3 against Minnesota, 2-of-4 against Philadelphia. The Jets rank 9th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 4th in passing yards allowed per game.
Normal<2 -161 ✓Edge<3 -609 ✓Edge+<4 -2580 ✓
Luther Burden III CHIunder 46.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 63
His 11-target Week 3 was a target-volume role at 8.7 yards per catch, not a yardage role, and it came against a Philadelphia defense that missed 10 charted tackles. New York allows 184.7 pass yards per game (4th) and 5.96 Y/A (4th) with Fitzpatrick back at safety — the YAC that makes his line work is harder to find.
Normal<47 ✗Edge<80 -564 ✓Edge+<110 -2042 ✓
Kenyon Sadiq NYJunder 41.5 rec ydshit · actual 0
His Week 3 line was a one-game usage spike created by Taylor, Mitchell, Smith and Cooper all being out, at 15.0 yards per catch that will not repeat. Now he is questionable with a back, limited in all three practices, and even healthy he played only 57-58% of snaps with Ruckert and Woods splitting the rest.
Normal<42 ✓Edge<42 ✓Edge+<42 ✓
 D 46
SF logoSFvsDEN logoDEN 2:25pm -3 48.5 38 under +7.7 +7.3 26–23 24–14
1–4
SF vs DEN over calls · 5 · graded off the box score
RJ Harvey DENover 40.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 93
Backfield consolidation plus script. Jonah Coleman (40% snaps, 10 carries in week 2) is on IR, leaving Dobbins on early downs and Harvey in the clearly-defined receiving-back role — 2 carries and 7 targets at a 35.8% share in week 3. If Denver trails and throws 32+ times against a front that cannot get home, the check-down volume is his.
Normal41+ -115 ✓Edge40+ -116 ✓Edge+40+ -116 ✓
Deebo Samuel Sr. SFover 39.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 26
Target concentration by subtraction: Robinson, Kirk, Pearsall and Stribling are on IR, Evans is Questionable with ribs after DNP, Hodge Questionable — Samuel's snap share has climbed 42% → 60% → 76%. His week 3 line (0 targets, 80 yards on a lateral) is the reason his projection looks odd; the snaps say he is the WR1.
Normal40+ ✗Edge40+ ✗Edge+40+ ✗
Courtland Sutton DENover 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 1
Rising role in an offense that should throw 32 times: snap share 76% → 73% → 87%, and a team-high 7 targets in week 3. With SF's coverage ranked 5th in pass success allowed, Denver's completions come short and in volume rather than downfield — that is the receptions market, not the yardage one.
Normal4+ +119 ✗Edge3+ -199 ✗Edge+2+ -564 ✗
Bo Nix DENover 220.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 214
Nix's output is a step function of pressure, and SF's pass rush is the thinnest Denver will have seen: Bosa (68% of snaps) Out, Keion White (69%) and Romello Height (54%) Questionable and both DNP, C.J. West on IR, Thompson DNP with an ankle. The engine blends a 5.3% sack rate off SF's 6.1% generated; the actual unit produced 9.4% pressure and 2 sacks on 53 dropbacks in week 3.
Normal221+ -115 ✗Edge175+ -381 ✓Edge+150+ -788 ✓
Christian McCaffrey SFover 64.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 52
The matchup and the script point the same way: SF should lead and has run a 39-44% pass rate in every leading state, and Denver's front is the league's worst by rush EPA allowed (32nd) at 5.07 YPC and 143.7 rush yards per game. Week 3 also showed the committee thinning — McCaffrey at 83% of snaps and 15 carries while Black fell to 4 carries and a 15% share.
Normal65+ -113 ✗Edge50+ -239 ✓Edge+40+ -458 ✓
4–1
SF vs DEN under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
George Kittle SFunder 64.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 70
His last two lines (4-80, 6-82) are low-target, high-aDOT outputs leveraged to one or two throws — 27.6% of air yards on 4 targets in week 2. Denver is 5th in pass EPA allowed and generates 20.0% pressure (5th) with Allen (99th percentile) and Bonitto (92nd); shorter dropbacks and a run-lean SF script in a 54-plays-per-game offense cut the number of chances to hit the one seam throw this line requires.
Normal<65 ✗Edge<110 -719 ✓Edge+<160 -5268 ✓
Jaylen Waddle DENunder 56.5 rec ydshit · actual 35
The targets are real and the yards-per-target is quarterback-capped. Waddle's one big game came with Mims ruled out and a 56.7% air-yards share on a clean-pocket day; Mims is now at full participation, and SF's coverage is 5th in pass success allowed and 7th in YPA at 6.26 — the opposite of Jacksonville's non-defense. Last week's version (7-8 targets, 2-10, -2.92 EPA) with Nix at -11.4 CPOE is the base case.
Normal<57 ✓Edge<90 -489 ✓Edge+<130 -2580 ✓
George Kittle SFunder 4.5 receptionshit · actual 4
Pure volume: SF has run 50, 53 and 65 plays and Purdy has thrown 22 and 27 times in the two home games; a run-lean script against the worst run-defense EPA in the league points to the mid-20s in attempts again. Kittle has caught more than 4 once.
Normal<5 +109 ✓Edge<8 -719 ✓Edge+<11 ✓
Christian McCaffrey SFunder 4.5 receptionshit · actual 3
Same script that lifts his carries caps his catches: SF leading means a sub-45% pass rate on 26-30 attempts, and Denver's pass defense (5th in EPA, 5th in pressure generated) is the one unit that forces fewer, not more, dropbacks. His target count has fallen 8 → 4 → 5 as the carry count rose.
Normal<5 +114 ✓Edge<8 -719 ✓Edge+<11 ✓
J.K. Dobbins DENunder 59.5 rush ydshit · actual 40
The engine's blended 4.27 YPC is above BOTH of its inputs — Denver's own 3.574 and SF's 3.729 allowed (10th) — pure regression to league in a spot where neither side supports it. Denver's run game has been bad in all three games, and SF's front gives up success-rate but not yards (32nd in rush success allowed, 10th in YPC, 105.7 rush ypg).
Normal<60 -116 ✓Edge<100 -660 ✓Edge+<140 -5268 ✓
 C 66
GB logoGB@TB logoTB⚠ QB TB: Baker Mayfield Out 11:00am -3 38.5 31 under +1.5 +5.7 21–18 17–14
3–3
GB @ TB over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Bucky Irving TBover 58.5 rush ydshit · actual 61
A rookie quarterback's first start pushes Tampa toward designed runs, and the run is where Green Bay is broken: Brinson out 'a significant amount of time' (LaFleur, Fri), Campbell DNP, Brooks limited, Cooper in concussion protocol. Atlanta ran 41 times for 242 (5.9 YPC, 5 explosive runs) into that same front in Week 3.
Normal59+ -115 ✓Edge50+ -148 ✓Edge+40+ -263 ✓
Cade Otton TBover 27.5 rec ydshit · actual 37
A first-start rookie throws short and to the tight end; Otton plays 89-98% of snaps and has had 5-6 targets in every game regardless of script or quarterback depth profile.
Normal28+ -115 ✓Edge25+ -112 ✓Edge+15+ -251 ✓
Chris Godwin Jr. TBover 27.5 rec ydshit · actual 31
With McMillan on IR and a rookie throwing, the quick-game underneath target is the safest ball in the offense; Godwin's snap share should recover from 62% after a full Thursday practice on the ankle (Rotowire, Thu).
Normal28+ -114 ✓Edge25+ -137 ✓Edge+15+ -263 ✓
Matthew Golden GBover 57.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 21
With Reed on IR for the season, Golden is the air-yards leader on a team that throws 35+ times; he faces a corner room without Morrison (ruled out Fri) and with Parrish limited all week on a personal matter.
Normal58+ -114 ✗Edge40+ -239 ✗Edge+25+ -609 ✗
Jordan Love GBover 246.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 197
GB cannot run into the No. 2 run defense (3.12 YPC allowed), so the engine's 24 carries/89 rush yards leak into attempts; and the defense that would punish extra dropbacks doesn't exist here — TB generates 11.3% pressure (27th) with Bain ruled out.
Normal247+ -114 ✗Edge200+ -276 ✗Edge+150+ -1087 ✓
Christian Watson GBover 66.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 47
Three straight games of 8+ targets in a pass-only offense, and the cleanest pocket he'll see — deep shots need time, and Tampa doesn't take it away.
Normal67+ -115 ✗Edge50+ -218 ✗Edge+40+ -340 ✓
2–3
GB @ TB under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Kaleb Johnson GBunder 31.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 42
GB's committee back in a game where the Packers shouldn't want to run at all: Tampa is 2nd in YPC allowed (3.12) and 3rd in rush success allowed (28.8%), and GB has abandoned the run in every game it hasn't led.
Normal<32 ✗Edge<60 -660 ✓Edge+<80 -2042 ✓
Tucker Kraft GBunder 42.5 rec ydshit · actual 42
He is the checkdown in front of the rush, not a chunk producer; with the pocket clean in this matchup Love should push air yards to Watson and Golden rather than dump underneath, and Tampa's linebacker-coverage problem has mostly been exploited by YAC backs and slots, not Kraft's role.
Normal<43 ✓Edge<80 -719 ✓Edge+<110 -5268 ✓
Jalon Daniels TBunder 0.5 pass TDsmiss · actual 1
Tampa's scoring problem is specifically red-zone passing: 3 TDs on 10 trips across three weeks, both Week 1 TDs on the ground, zero TDs on two Week 3 trips. Hand that offense to an undrafted rookie with a 17.5-point implied total and the touchdown path is Irving, not the throw.
Normal<1 +146 ✗Edge<2 -360 ✓Edge+<3 -1428 ✓
MarShawn Lloyd GBunder 32.5 rush+rec ydsmiss · actual 49
His snap share has fallen 44% to 27% to 23% with a lost fumble in between, and the game he's in is a passing game against the league's stingiest run defense by YPC.
Normal<33 ✗Edge<55 -458 ✓Edge+<80 -3476 ✓
Jalon Daniels TBunder 165.5 pass ydshit · actual 148
A run-leaning plan for a first-start rookie against a front he can run on, plus Green Bay's edge rotation (4 sacks/8 hits at NYJ) producing hits that stall drives. Tampa's receiving corps is also down McMillan with Hurst as WR3.
Normal<166 ✓Edge<225 -458 ✓Edge+<300 -3476 ✓
 C 67
HOU logoHOUvsDAL logoDAL 11:00am -3 48.5 64 over +0.8 +0.8 26–23 30–34
4–2
HOU vs DAL over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
David Montgomery HOUover 44.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 24
The one Houston facet with a matchup: Dallas is 31st in rush yards allowed (179.7/gm) and 29th in YPC (5.04), has allowed a functioning run game in all three weeks, and is now without Overshown (74% of snaps) and Bullard. Montgomery's snap share has climbed 49% to 53% to 63%.
Normal45+ -114 ✗Edge40+ -148 ✗Edge+30+ -290 ✗
George Pickens DALover 4.5 receptionsmiss · actual 2
Target count rises with attempts, and his share is trending up as Flournoy's conversion craters; a defense that is 31st in WR points allowed will not reduce the looks.
Normal5+ -131 ✗Edge4+ -290 ✗Edge+3+ -719 ✗
CeeDee Lamb DALover 77.5 rec ydshit · actual 189
Stable alpha usage (8-9 targets every week, 55.7% air-yards share vs WAS) meeting the league's 31st-ranked defense in WR production allowed, in a script that adds attempts.
Normal78+ -115 ✓Edge60+ -218 ✓Edge+40+ -609 ✓
Dak Prescott DALover 265.5 pass ydshit · actual 335
Houston's run defense forces the attempts up and its secondary gives the yards back: 8.08 Y/A allowed (27th) and 10 explosive passes allowed in three games, against an offense that already passes 61% and is about to be denied the run entirely.
Normal266+ -115 ✓Edge225+ -290 ✓Edge+200+ -525 ✓
Nico Collins HOUover 71.5 rec ydshit · actual 118
Returning WR1 walks back into a target tree nobody claimed, against a Dallas secondary missing Durant, Thompson and Locke that has allowed 4 explosive passes in each of the last two weeks and three DPIs worth 73 yards in Week 3 alone.
Normal72+ -115 ✓Edge60+ -191 ✓Edge+40+ -404 ✓
CeeDee Lamb DALover 5.5 receptionshit · actual 17
Pure volume in a pass-forced script; Houston's LB level is thinned (Al-Shaair out, To'oTo'o IR) and Dallas' answer to pressure has been quick game — 22-of-26 short in Week 1, 116 YAC in Week 3.
Normal6+ -131 ✓Edge4+ -564 ✓Edge+3+ -1684 ✓
3–3
HOU vs DAL under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Dalton Schultz HOUunder 4.5 receptionshit · actual 2
His entire case is the Collins absence. Collins is back, and the Week 3 game with a healthy-ish deep tree already showed where the targets go when Houston goes vertical — Hutchinson 6, Moreau 4, Schultz 3.
Normal<5 -131 ✓Edge<8 -1087 ✓Edge+<11 ✓
Woody Marks HOUunder 50.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 22
Shrinking role in a backfield that is consolidating toward Montgomery, and the receiving work that padded his Week 2 line came from an 0.868 trailing pass rate Houston is unlikely to repeat in a run-leaning script.
Normal<51 ✓Edge<75 -458 ✓Edge+<100 -2042 ✓
Dalton Schultz HOUunder 42.5 rec ydshit · actual 9
Target redistribution to Collins plus Houston's aDOT profile — when Houston goes vertical the yards go to the perimeter, not the TE (Week 3: Hutchinson 121 air yards to Schultz's 3 targets).
Normal<43 ✓Edge<80 -967 ✓Edge+<120 -5268 ✓
Javonte Williams DALunder 56.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 62
The matchup kills both ends. Houston is 4th in YPC allowed (3.47), 5th in rush yards per game and 1st in RB fantasy points allowed; Dallas' own run game is 3.83 and 3.14 YPC in the two weeks it wasn't facing Baltimore's soft edges, and a pass-forced script trims the carries.
Normal<57 ✗Edge<90 -489 ✓Edge+<130 -3476 ✓
Javonte Williams DALunder 77.5 rush+rec ydsmiss · actual 83
Same mechanism as the rushing line; the receiving side is script-dependent (his 5-catch Week 1 came while trailing all night) and Dallas is not projected to trail by much.
Normal<78 ✗Edge<105 -404 ✓Edge+<130 -1428 ✓
Xavier Hutchinson HOUunder 2.5 receptionsmiss · actual 3
Collins' return reclaims the perimeter share Hutchinson inherited; his catch rate is also the worst on the team, so he needs targets to clear the number.
Normal<3 -112 ✗Edge<6 -1684 ✓Edge+<8 ✓
 D 47
ARI logoARI@NYG logoNYG 11:00am -2.5 44.5 60 over -1.7 -1.7 24–21 24–36
2–4
ARI @ NYG over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Darnell Mooney NYGover 20.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 0
ARI allows 9.26 YPA (rank 32) and 0.502 EPA/dropback and has given up explosive passes in all three games; Mooney is the Giants' only pass-catcher who works downfield, and the line is set at a level his floor has matched every week.
Normal21+ -115 ✗Edge15+ -154 ✗Edge+15+ -154 ✗
Cam Skattebo NYGover 17.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 8
ARI is 3rd in rush EPA allowed and NYG's interior runs have been dead (2.0 YPC up the middle at LA, four stuffs vs TEN), which pushes Skattebo's value into the checkdown game — Winston's default under a clean pocket with a 6.2 aDOT.
Normal18+ -114 ✗Edge15+ -142 ✗Edge+15+ -142 ✗
Malachi Fields NYGover 25.5 rec ydshit · actual 52
Fields has held the deep-shot role at a 69-81% snap share across all three weeks while Nabers works at checkdown depth; against a defense with no pressure generated and rank-32 YPA allowed, the one 25-yard shot per game is the likeliest Giants chunk.
Normal26+ -115 ✓Edge25+ +101 ✓Edge+15+ -183 ✓
Michael Wilson ARIover 58.5 rec ydshit · actual 95
He's the air-yards leader in an offense throwing 34 times against a corner group rated 9th, 22nd and 28th percentile with Adebo on IR and Banks questionable — and with no rush in front of it, Brissett has time to let the intermediate routes develop.
Normal59+ -115 ✓Edge40+ -251 ✓Edge+25+ -660 ✓
Jeremiyah Love ARIover 87.5 rush+rec ydsmiss · actual 55
Backfield consolidation plus a favorite's script. Conner and Benson are on IR, Allgeier has fallen to a 36% snap passing-down role (2 carries for -1 at SF), and ARI is favored — the lead-state carries are all Love's. NYG's front allows 4.67 YPC (rank 25) and 2.75 YBC/carry.
Normal88+ -113 ✗Edge88+ -113 ✗Edge+88+ -113 ✗
Trey McBride ARIover 7.5 receptionsmiss · actual 7
ARI's answer to any coverage is the short middle, and the opponent cannot pressure Brissett into throwing it away: 0, 1 and 0 sacks generated by NYG in three games, 8.2% pressure (rank 32), Burns on IR. McBride is the target floor in a 33-36 attempt game.
Normal8+ +146 ✗Edge6+ -251 ✓Edge+4+ -1087 ✓
3–3
ARI @ NYG under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Malik Nabers NYGunder 53.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 112
The line is priced off a quarterback who is on IR. With Winston, Nabers' routes are checkdown-depth — 5 total air yards on 6 targets in Week 3 — and the team aDOT is 6.2 with -4.8 CPOE. He cannot reach a 50-yard line catching the ball at the sticks.
Normal<54 ✗Edge<90 -430 ✗Edge+<130 -2042 ✓
Isaiah Likely NYGunder 4.5 receptionsmiss · actual 7
A 29-attempt projection in a run-leaning offense doesn't support five catches, and ARI's linebackers are no longer the Week 1 soft spot the engine's dvp rank implies — Gibbens grades at the 79th percentile in coverage on a 57% share.
Normal<5 -154 ✗Edge<8 -1684 ✓Edge+<10 ✓
Marvin Harrison Jr. ARIunder 33.5 rec ydshit · actual 12
He is the fourth option in a short-passing offense: McBride and Michael Wilson absorb the targets, and with a 6.3 aDOT the perimeter X gets erased. Nothing about the Giants' coverage forces the ball his way — they keep it in front, which is where the other two live.
Normal<34 ✓Edge<60 -404 ✓Edge+<90 -1684 ✓
Cam Skattebo NYGunder 62.5 rush ydshit · actual 58
His only path to the number is a lead script, and the market has NYG as the home dog. Meanwhile Arizona's single defensive strength is run EPA (-0.326, 3rd), and NYG's interior blocking is the worst part of this offense — Harris has been taking the productive left-side carries.
Normal<63 ✓Edge<100 -609 ✓Edge+<140 -2042 ✓
Jacoby Brissett ARIunder 233.5 pass ydshit · actual 166
To clear this he needs ~7.0 Y/A as a favorite. ARI has produced zero explosive passes in two straight games, and its 280-yard game required 52 attempts from a never-led script. Favored by 2.5, the attempt ceiling comes down and the aDOT doesn't go up — and the prior report's own lesson is that a no-pass-rush opponent buys completions, not yardage, when the aDOT is under 8.
Normal<234 ✓Edge<300 -564 ✓Edge+<350 -2042 ✓
Jameis Winston NYGunder 208.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 250
Two games of evidence at 111 and 118 yards, a sub-6 Y/A offense, and a coaching staff that stops throwing the moment it leads (.380 pass rate leading in Week 3, .306 early-down). Either script hurts the number: lead and he throws 22 times, trail and he completes 40% of them.
Normal<209 ✗Edge<275 -609 ✓Edge+<350 -3476 ✓
 C 58
CIN logoCINvsJAX logoJAX 11:00am -2.5 51.5 39 under +2.6 +2.4 27–24 17–22
4–2
CIN vs JAX over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAXover 20.5 rush ydshit · actual 35
If JAX runs 26–29 times as projected, the complementary back clears a 20.5 line easily; he also owns short-yardage and goal-line work now (1-yard TD vs NE). The CIN interior being down Jonathan Allen raises the floor on JAX's between-the-tackles carries.
Normal21+ -114 ✓Edge15+ -183 ✓Edge+10+ -360 ✓
Samaje Perine CINover 26.5 rush+rec ydsmiss · actual 7
A pass-heavy, competitive script is Perine's script — he takes third-down snaps and has out-targeted Chase Brown's efficiency on those looks. The same read that sinks Brown's rushing lifts the passing-down back's combined line a little.
Normal27+ -114 ✗Edge27+ -114 ✗Edge+27+ -114 ✗
Tee Higgins CINover 62.5 rec ydshit · actual 157
Second beneficiary of the same pass-heavy script, and the air-yards leader in two of three weeks. JAX's outside corners (M. Brown 38th percentile, J. Jones 24th) have allowed 80 and 65 yards in a single game each this season, and the dossier's own blueprint for beating JAX is vertical work against them.
Normal63+ -114 ✓Edge40+ -306 ✓Edge+25+ -719 ✓
Bhayshul Tuten JAXover 55.5 rush ydshit · actual 73
The engine still prices him as a committee back (10.7 carries) after three straight weeks of 13–15. JAX wants to run here: Cincinnati allows 4.705 YPC (26th) and gave up 138 yards at 6.0 YPC with three explosive runs to Pittsburgh, and its best interior lineman (Jonathan Allen, 76% snaps, 83rd percentile) did not practice with B.J. Hill questionable behind him.
Normal56+ -114 ✓Edge40+ -263 ✓Edge+30+ -489 ✓
Ja'Marr Chase CINover 79.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 27
CIN is the pass-heavy side against the secondary that gets beaten for chunks. JAX has allowed 8.786 YPA (29th) and 3/5/5 passes of 20+ in Weeks 1–3; Chase's role has only grown as the receiver room thinned (Iosivas IR, Young out) and he played 100% of snaps at PIT.
Normal80+ -137 ✗Edge60+ -263 ✗Edge+40+ -719 ✗
Joe Burrow CINover 267.5 pass ydshit · actual 428
Script and matchup push the same way: CIN cannot run (4.03 YPC, -0.25 EPA/rush at HOU) into a JAX front that is 7th in YPC and 7th in rush success allowed, and JAX's pass defense has allowed 246 yards/game. Any neutral or trailing script puts Burrow at his ceiling attempt count — he was at 70.2% pass rate the one week CIN never led.
Normal268+ -112 ✓Edge225+ -340 ✓Edge+200+ -609 ✓
3–2
CIN vs JAX under calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Trevor Lawrence JAXunder 260.5 pass ydshit · actual 227
Jacksonville is the run-leaning side in a game where the matchup rewards running, and its passing game has gone short: 6.4 aDOT in Week 3 with 27 of 29 attempts classified short. Cincinnati is 3rd in pass EPA allowed even while surrendering raw yardage, and its yardage totals came from opponents throwing 55–79 times in chase mode — the opposite of JAX's likely script.
Normal<261 ✓Edge<325 -489 ✓Edge+<400 -5268 ✓
Parker Washington JAXunder 75.5 rec ydshit · actual 7
His one big yardage game (98 at DEN) came on 12 targets in a trailing, 29-attempt script; in the two games JAX controlled he saw 6 and 5 targets for 83 and 40. A run-leaning, lead-chasing-free Jacksonville game caps his volume, and CIN's pass defense is 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback.
Normal<76 ✓Edge<120 -564 ✓Edge+<160 -2580 ✓
Chase Brown CINunder 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 11
His target share has fallen as the pass volume rose — Perine is taking the passing-down snaps, and when CIN threw 37 times at Pittsburgh Brown saw two targets. Jacksonville's linebackers (Miller 88th percentile, Gardeck 89th) are the strength of that defense in coverage terms.
Normal<4 -142 ✗Edge<6 -609 ✗Edge+<8 -3476 ✗
Brenton Strange JAXunder 3.5 receptionsmiss · actual 7
A JAX passing game that throws 28–31 times at a short aDOT with Washington and (if healthy) Meyers taking the concentrated looks leaves the TE at 3–5 targets; he has caught more than 3 in no game this season. The counter is that CIN allows the 28th-most fantasy points to tight ends — which is why this is a low-confidence call and why I do not extend it to his yardage line.
Normal<4 -131 ✗Edge<7 -1428 ✗Edge+<9 ✓
Chase Brown CINunder 63.5 rush ydshit · actual 10
Both inputs break against him: Jacksonville is 7th in YPC allowed (3.605), 7th in rush success and 8th in rush yards per game, and Cincinnati abandons the run whenever it is not leading — 18 carries on 70.2% pass at Pittsburgh, a game in which it never led until Q4.
Normal<64 ✓Edge<100 -719 ✓Edge+<140 -5268 ✓
 D 52
PIT logoPIT@CLE logoCLE TNF -2.5 38.5 51 over -1.6 -2.4 20–18 24–27
4–1
PIT @ CLE over calls · 5 · graded off the box score
Denzel Boston CLEover 34.5 rec ydshit · actual 89
Cleveland's volume is low but concentrated: Boston takes half the air yards at a 89-93% snap share, so his yardage is chunk-dependent rather than attempt-dependent. Pittsburgh has allowed 3-4 explosive passes every week and 7.815 YPA (23rd), with Samuel Jr. (3rd percentile in group) on two-thirds of snaps and Ramsey Questionable.
Normal35+ -115 ✓Edge25+ -218 ✓Edge+15+ -430 ✓
Roman Wilson PITover 18.5 rec ydshit · actual 74
He is the designated deep target in an offense with no other vertical outlet, and his target count has been immune to snap share — 6 looks in each of three weeks on shares of 55%, 79% and 39%. Against Cleveland's quality underneath coverage, the shots are where Pittsburgh's yards have to come from.
Normal19+ -114 ✓Edge15+ -168 ✓Edge+15+ -168 ✓
Jaylen Warren PITover 90.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 126
Same bell-cow mechanism plus a receiving floor that survives either script: he catches checkdowns when PIT trails (6 and 4 targets in Weeks 1-2) and runs when it leads. The combined market is the script-proof version of the rushing call.
Normal91+ -115 ✓Edge90+ -199 ✓Edge+90+ -199 ✓
Jaylen Warren PITover 71.5 rush ydshit · actual 93
Dowdle OUT again leaves Warren as the only real back (90.3% snap share in Week 3 under the same condition), and the favorite's script in a 38.5-point game points at 22+ carries against the one facet of Cleveland's defense that is genuinely soft.
Normal72+ -114 ✓Edge60+ -228 ✓Edge+40+ -660 ✓
Deshaun Watson CLEover 29.5 rush ydsmiss · actual 22
Pressure creates his rushing yards. Cleveland is starting a patched interior line (E. Jenkins out, T. Jenkins out, Howard limited) against Pittsburgh's 8th-ranked pressure rate; Watson's answer in both pressure games has been to run. Pittsburgh is also 30th in rush EPA allowed, so the scrambles travel.
Normal30+ +109 ✗Edge20+ -228 ✓Edge+15+ -381 ✓
3–3
PIT @ CLE under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Quinshon Judkins CLEunder 54.5 rush ydshit · actual 53
Cleveland's run blocking is the problem, not the opponent: left-side carries went 9-for-3 yards at TB and the offense has posted negative rush EPA in all three games. Losing the starting center (E. Jenkins, 91% snaps) and the starting guard makes it worse, and a trailing script trims his early-down carries.
Normal<55 ✓Edge<90 -564 ✓Edge+<130 -3476 ✓
Michael Pittman PITunder 34.5 rec ydshit · actual 15
He is the fourth or fifth option in a run-tilted plan: the air yards go to Wilson and Metcalf, the YAC targets to Washington, Freiermuth and Warren. In a low-attempt favorite script there is not enough volume to feed him.
Normal<35 ✓Edge<70 -719 ✓Edge+<100 -3476 ✓
Harold Fannin Jr. CLEunder 4.5 receptionshit · actual 3
His 9-target Week 3 came with Jeudy out and Watson at a 5.5 aDOT in a 67-play game. Here the play count compresses (CLE 58.2 projected, its own season rate is 54.0) and Pittsburgh is 8th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (9.3/game) — the stingiest positional number on this defense.
Normal<5 -121 ✓Edge<8 -967 ✓Edge+<10 -3476 ✓
Aaron Rodgers PITunder 1.5 pass TDsmiss · actual 3
Red-zone conversion is the most repeated item in Pittsburgh's file and the scoring environment is 38.5 total points. Two passing scores requires the finishing this offense has not shown except in one outlier week.
Normal<2 -168 ✗Edge<3 -788 ✗Edge+<4 -2580 ✓
DK Metcalf PITunder 38.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 115
His targets are downfield in an offense that cannot throw downfield; Cleveland's secondary is 4th in pass EPA and 4th in pass success allowed, and the fewer attempts a lead script produces, the fewer deep looks there are to convert.
Normal<39 ✗Edge<70 -306 ✗Edge+<110 -1684 ✗
Aaron Rodgers PITunder 213.5 pass ydsmiss · actual 299
His attempt counts have been a pure script derivative — 40 and 39 came while trailing nearly wire-to-wire; as a favorite in a 38.5-point game with the only back healthy and Cleveland weak against the run, attempts fall toward the projected 33.7 or lower. And Cleveland's pass defense is the strong unit: 4th in pass EPA allowed, 4th in pass success, 6.838 YPA.
Normal<214 ✗Edge<275 -458 ✗Edge+<325 -1428 ✓
 D 54
NO logoNOvsATL logoATL MNF -1.5 47.5 69 over +0.0 -0.2 ↯ 24–23 24–45
6–0
NO vs ATL over calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Bijan Robinson ATLto scorehit · actual 2
Atlanta's red-zone scoring runs through him when they get there — and against this run defense they will. The Saints have allowed 26.5 fantasy points per game to running backs (26th) and a near-league-average red-zone TD rate while their goal-line linebackers are banged up.
NormalTD -191 ✓EdgeTD -191 ✓Edge+TD -191 ✓
Juwan Johnson NOover 3.5 receptionshit · actual 6
Underneath checkdown volume in a 36-42 attempt game against a defense that allows 17.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends (24th) and whose linebacker group behind Deablo (limited, hamstring) rates 35th and 10th percentile. If Fant (Questionable, abdomen, limited Thu and Fri per Rotowire) sits, Johnson absorbs the TE snaps outright.
Normal4+ -175 ✓Edge3+ -381 ✓Edge+2+ -1087 ✓
Bijan Robinson ATLover 79.5 rush ydshit · actual 145
The one matchup edge in the game: a run-identity offense against a defense allowing 4.71 YPC (27th), 128.7 rush ypg (27th) and a .493 rush success rate (30th), with its top two linebackers (Elliss 95% snaps, Werner) and starting edge (Granderson) all DNP Thursday and Friday. Carries also compound with any ATL lead — 37 snaps leading at a .27 pass rate at GB.
Normal80+ -161 ✓Edge60+ -381 ✓Edge+50+ -719 ✓
Brian Robinson ATLover 29.5 rush ydshit · actual 62
The complementary back in the script most likely to happen: Atlanta grinding carries against a 27th-ranked run defense missing linebackers. He has had 9-11 carries in every game regardless of game state, including 11 in a 31-point loss — that floor is script-proof, and the matchup lifts the per-carry number.
Normal30+ -103 ✓Edge20+ -228 ✓Edge+15+ -360 ✓
Tyler Shough NOover 249.5 pass ydshit · actual 286
Atlanta erases the Saints' run (2.75 YPC allowed, 1st) and simultaneously allows the most passing yardage in the league (273.3 ypg, 27th) with Terrell on IR and two sub-20th-percentile corners playing 79%+ of snaps. That is a pure attempt-and-yards engine, independent of whether NO leads or trails.
Normal250+ -142 ✓Edge200+ -458 ✓Edge+175+ -869 ✓
Chris Olave NOover 6.5 receptionshit · actual 8
Alpha concentration in a forced-pass script: 43.5-54.2% of team air yards every week, 84-86% snaps, and a quick-game offense (aDOT 6.3 vs BAL, +14.1 CPOE) against corners rated 10th and 6th percentile with Terrell out. Receptions is the volume market, not the yards market, which is the right side of a high-attempt, short-throw game.
Normal7+ -126 ✓Edge5+ -430 ✓Edge+4+ -869 ✓
4–2
NO vs ATL under calls · 6 · graded off the box score
Kendre Miller NOunder 39.5 rush+rec ydshit · actual 19
The committee's number three back (behind Kamara, with Donaldson also active) running into the league's best run defense: 2.75 YPC allowed (1st), 47.7 rush ypg allowed (1st), .294 rush success allowed (4th). Etienne's IR move adds carries to Kamara first, and a trailing or neutral script leaves Miller a change-of-pace role.
Normal<40 ✓Edge<40 ✓Edge+<40 ✓
Michael Penix Jr. ATLunder 1.5 pass TDshit · actual 1
Atlanta's touchdowns in this script come on the ground: the engine itself projects 1.1 rushing TDs on 28.6 carries against a bottom-five run defense, and the Falcons' Week 3 red-zone production was two Bijan runs plus one short throw. A sub-31-attempt game rarely produces two passing scores.
Normal<2 -131 ✓Edge<3 -564 ✓Edge+<4 -2580 ✓
Jahan Dotson ATLunder 19.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 54
Third option on a low-volume passing offense with a concentrated alpha: London took 59.9% of ATL's air yards at GB, and in a run-leaning script there are maybe 25-28 attempts to distribute. Dotson's snap share (63-75%) has not converted to targets.
Normal<20 ✗Edge<50 -660 ✗Edge+<70 -2042 ✓
Alvin Kamara NOunder 29.5 rush ydshit · actual 23
Etienne's IR placement (Rotowire/FantasyPros, Thu Oct 1) makes Kamara the lead back, but the carries arrive against the league's toughest run defense — 2.75 YPC and 47.7 rush ypg allowed, 1st in both, with Dorlus (94th pct), Dexter (90th) and London (91st) on the interior. Volume up, yards per carry down.
Normal<30 +140 ✓Edge<70 -788 ✓Edge+<100 -3476 ✓
Bijan Robinson ATLunder 39.5 rec ydshit · actual 2
His receiving line moves inversely to Atlanta's lead probability, and this is the script where they run. When Atlanta leads and the pass rate drops toward .27, the checkdowns stop existing; when the QB is Penix rather than a 3.5-aDOT backup, the targets go to London rather than the back.
Normal<40 -142 ✓Edge<70 -609 ✓Edge+<100 -3476 ✓
Kyle Pitts ATLunder 19.5 rec ydsmiss · actual 47
A 25-to-30-attempt game with London taking roughly 60% of the air yards leaves nothing for an intermediate tight end, and the script here (ATL running at a 27th-ranked run defense) is the exact one that produced his worst lines. The Week 3 report's conclusion — in any ATL lead-and-run script he is a sub-20-yard TE — applies directly.
Normal<20 ✗Edge<50 -322 ✓Edge+<80 -1428 ✓
 D 53
Fantasy projections

Projected leaders, week 4

Expected PPR points from the projected box scores; DEF = fewest projected points allowed. The actual sits in parentheses: green beat the projection, red fell short (defenses the other way round).
#QBProj (act)
1Brock PurdyB. Purdy SF19.1 (19.6)
2Tyler ShoughT. Shough NO18.8 (15.9)
3Lamar JacksonL. JacksonFP BAL18.0 (18.9)
4Josh AllenJ. Allen BUF18.0 (18.5)
5C.J. StroudC.J. Stroud HOU17.6 (23.1)
6Sam DarnoldS. Darnold SEA17.4 (13.3)
7Joe BurrowJ. Burrow CIN17.4 (23.7)
8Bryce YoungB. YoungFP CAR17.4 (21.5)
9Dak PrescottD. Prescott DAL17.2 (18.1)
10Geno SmithG. Smith NYJ16.9 (8.8)
#RBProj (act)
1Jahmyr GibbsJ. Gibbs DET27.1 (17.7)
2Bijan RobinsonB. Robinson ATL24.1 (27.7)
3Jaylen WarrenJ. Warren PIT20.9 (15.6)
4Jonathan TaylorJ. TaylorFP IND18.5 (22.7)
5Kenneth Walker IIIK. Walker III KC18.1 (30.9)
6Bucky IrvingB. IrvingFP TB17.2 (6.1)
7James CookJ. Cook BUF16.9 (16.3)
8Christian McCaffreyC. McCaffreyFP SF16.6 (16.0)
9Aaron JonesA. JonesLP MIN16.2 (16.8)
10D'Andre SwiftD. SwiftFP CHI16.2 (7.4)
#WRProj (act)
1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJ. Smith-Njigba SEA21.8 (12.6)
2Zay FlowersZ. FlowersQ BAL18.9 (25.8)
3Chris OlaveC. Olave NO18.0 (19.6)
4Drake LondonD. London ATL17.1 (14.6)
5Garrett WilsonG. Wilson NYJ17.0 (5.7)
6Dontayvion WicksD. Wicks PHI16.6 (4.8)
7Jordan AddisonJ. Addison MIN16.0 (9.1)
8CeeDee LambC. Lamb DAL15.1 (41.3)
9Ja'Marr ChaseJ. Chase CIN14.8 (5.7)
10Parker WashingtonP. Washington JAX14.7 (2.0)
#TEProj (act)
1Brock BowersB. BowersLP LV16.4 (20.6)
2Trey McBrideT. McBride ARI15.2 (10.1)
3Travis KelceT. Kelce KC11.9 (3.5)
4T.J. HockensonT.J. Hockenson MIN11.4 (24.9)
5George KittleG. Kittle SF10.8 (17.0)
6Juwan JohnsonJ. Johnson NO10.6 (11.9)
7Harold Fannin Jr.H. Fannin Jr. CLE9.9 (11.7)
8Sam LaPortaS. LaPorta DET9.6 (22.4)
9Kenyon SadiqK. SadiqQ NYJ9.2 (0.0)
10Tyler WarrenT. Warren IND9.1 (9.1)
#DEFProj allowed (act)
1MINMIN 14.2 (10)
2BALBAL 15.5 (18)
3SEASEA 17.8 (23)
4GBGB 17.8 (14)
5PITPIT 18.0 (27)
6LALA 19.5 (20)
7CHICHI 20.0 (12)
8CLECLE 20.5 (24)
9TBTB 20.8 (17)
10INDIND 21.0 (13)
Rest-of-season outlook

Player outlook: offense and remaining schedule

The player's offense (pass side for QB, WR and TE, run side for RB) blended with how soft the defenses left on their slate are. 50 is league average; high = strong offense with an easy road. Team data 2026 weeks 1–3, schedule = remaining weeks 4–18. Each team shows its lead player; the arrow opens the rest. Green/amber = top/bottom 10 teams on team columns; top/bottom 25 players on RB and WR stats, 10 on QB and TE. Click a column to rank by it.
#PlayerTeamGPOutlookTm EPATm Pass EPASched EPAGms LeftPass Y/GComp%Pass RtgPass TDINTRush Y/GPPR/G
1Brock PurdyB. Purdy SF366.1+0.423+0.671+0.11414263.072.3%133.19131.027.0
2Dak PrescottD. Prescott DAL362.8+0.193+0.326+0.15414243.369.5%107.27119.721.0
3Jameis WinstonJ. Winston NYG259.9-0.017+0.094+0.17514114.551.0%55.6017.54.3
↳Jaxson DartJ. Dart NYG259.9-0.017+0.094+0.17514125.076.5%125.93027.013.7
4Matthew StaffordM. Stafford LA359.3+0.067+0.134+0.16314290.760.4%88.1643.717.3
5Jalen HurtsJ. Hurts PHI358.1-0.036-0.032+0.18514206.764.4%90.25329.017.8
6Trevor LawrenceT. Lawrence JAX357.3+0.139+0.165+0.14114205.366.7%107.87211.317.3
7Joe BurrowJ. Burrow CIN355.5+0.203+0.299+0.10014247.770.9%106.66110.717.6
8Sam DarnoldS. Darnold SEA255.4+0.029+0.291+0.10114196.068.1%104.2422.514.1
↳Drew LockD. Lock SEA255.4+0.029+0.291+0.10114211.072.9%127.3406.517.1
9Jayden DanielsJ. DanielsO WAS254.6+0.010+0.099+0.13114130.056.9%90.33050.016.2
↳Marcus MariotaM. Mariota WAS254.6+0.010+0.099+0.13114147.063.8%109.7407.014.6
10Josh AllenJ. Allen BUF352.3+0.203+0.353+0.06414262.065.1%104.15238.031.3
11Case KeenumC. Keenum CHI152.2+0.059+0.212+0.09014247.070.6%110.8206.024.5
↳Caleb WilliamsC. WilliamsO CHI252.2+0.059+0.212+0.09014203.565.5%92.02153.522.5
12C.J. StroudC.J. Stroud HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.12014264.760.0%88.03018.015.1
13Jared GoffJ. Goff DET351.3+0.075+0.159+0.09414267.370.6%116.1805.021.9
14Jacoby BrissettJ. Brissett ARI351.0+0.018+0.088+0.10514217.370.1%91.5418.316.2
15Kirk CousinsK. Cousins LV350.0+0.127+0.317+0.05214220.367.4%107.293-0.718.7
16Geno SmithG. Smith NYJ349.6+0.035+0.171+0.07714261.075.5%110.04012.017.0
17Jordan LoveJ. Love GB348.9-0.134+0.023+0.10014281.352.4%83.5620.017.3
18Kyler MurrayK. Murray MIN248.4-0.115-0.090+0.1181493.052.9%54.31213.05.0
↳Carson WentzC. Wentz MIN248.4-0.115-0.090+0.11814138.059.0%106.4302.512.8
19Bo NixB. Nix DEN348.4-0.032+0.000+0.10114201.760.2%80.3435.014.6
20Lamar JacksonL. JacksonFP BAL347.6+0.201+0.413+0.01414248.369.7%113.14141.320.1
21Daniel JonesD. Jones IND347.5-0.039-0.080+0.10914203.766.3%80.8336.39.4
22Deshaun WatsonD. Watson CLE347.5-0.018+0.164+0.06214195.768.3%104.15135.018.0
23Patrick MahomesP. MahomesFP KC345.8+0.159+0.178+0.04514270.768.4%108.97213.722.2
24Bryce YoungB. YoungFP CAR345.4+0.025+0.082+0.06114313.059.5%96.4725.323.1
25Drake MayeD. MayeFP NE345.1-0.079-0.026+0.07914195.063.7%58.61627.37.2
26Cam WardC. Ward TEN345.0-0.110-0.163+0.10414168.062.5%80.92110.013.7
27Tyler ShoughT. Shough NO344.7-0.000+0.027+0.06514305.768.9%99.28322.323.1
28Justin HerbertJ. Herbert LAC343.7-0.137-0.009+0.06414209.059.1%73.43416.011.3
29Aaron RodgersA. Rodgers PIT341.3-0.125-0.151+0.07214233.358.4%81.0424.013.1
30Malik WillisM. Willis MIA339.6-0.056+0.057+0.01914209.057.0%74.11233.713.1
31Baker MayfieldB. MayfieldO TB338.7-0.288-0.396+0.09814205.063.5%80.02221.711.7
32Michael Penix Jr.M. Penix Jr. ATL135.5-0.152-0.337+0.06114256.072.0%101.411-2.014.0
↳Cooper RushC. Rush ATL235.5-0.152-0.337+0.06114114.556.4%42.51410.02.6
↳Jack StrandJ. Strand ATL135.5-0.152-0.337+0.0611459.053.3%35.10116.0-0.0
#PlayerTeamGPOutlookTm EPATm Rush EPASched EPAGms LeftRush Y/GYds/AttYBC/AttRush TDTgt/GRec Y/GPPR/G
1Bhayshul TutenB. Tuten JAX361.3+0.139+0.098-0.0941468.04.741.8121.712.013.7
↳Chris Rodriguez Jr.C. Rodriguez Jr. JAX361.3+0.139+0.098-0.0941424.33.651.6010.00.04.4
2James CookJ. Cook BUF357.8+0.203-0.016-0.08814115.35.974.3122.75.316.7
3Chase BrownC. Brown CIN357.5+0.203-0.011-0.0921465.74.022.4914.310.713.0
↳Samaje PerineS. Perine CIN357.5+0.203-0.011-0.0921411.73.502.2002.317.04.5
4Jaylen WarrenJ. Warren PIT357.2-0.125-0.068-0.0791472.05.682.6104.736.713.5
↳Rico DowdleR. DowdleO PIT257.2-0.125-0.068-0.0791418.52.471.7303.514.05.2
5Bucky IrvingB. IrvingFP TB356.1-0.288-0.064-0.0881460.04.502.6215.020.313.7
↳Kenny GainwellK. Gainwell TB356.1-0.288-0.064-0.088147.02.100.4003.37.33.4
6Jonathan TaylorJ. TaylorFP IND355.2-0.039+0.015-0.1131486.03.911.8843.722.321.2
7Ashton JeantyA. JeantyFP LV354.2+0.127-0.136-0.0821468.73.271.5905.332.318.4
↳Mike Washington Jr.M. Washington Jr. LV354.2+0.127-0.136-0.0821434.06.803.2010.30.05.4
8Bijan RobinsonB. Robinson ATL353.6-0.152+0.021-0.12514116.35.292.7625.339.325.9
↳Brian RobinsonB. Robinson ATL353.6-0.152+0.021-0.1251444.04.401.8010.75.37.6
9Tony PollardT. PollardFP TEN353.4-0.110-0.027-0.1141457.74.552.6802.37.38.5
↳Tyjae SpearsT. SpearsQ TEN353.4-0.110-0.027-0.1141419.34.462.7702.013.74.6
10Jordan MasonJ. Mason MIN153.2-0.115-0.147-0.0861459.03.931.6010.00.011.9
↳Aaron JonesA. JonesLP MIN353.2-0.115-0.147-0.0861467.73.902.5612.311.311.6
11Derrick HenryD. Henry BAL353.0+0.201-0.062-0.10814100.34.561.8861.712.725.0
↳Justice HillJ. Hill BAL353.0+0.201-0.062-0.1081419.04.383.0801.07.33.6
12Kenneth Walker IIIK. Walker III KC352.9+0.159+0.129-0.15614120.05.542.1826.027.326.4
↳Emmett JohnsonE. Johnson KC352.9+0.159+0.129-0.1561418.73.501.5001.321.35.3
13TreVeyon HendersonT. Henderson NE252.7-0.079-0.162-0.0851449.54.122.1210.53.08.8
↳Rhamondre StevensonR. Stevenson NE352.7-0.079-0.162-0.0851438.73.741.4503.721.08.3
↳Corey KinerC. Kiner NE352.7-0.079-0.162-0.085149.72.070.7900.33.01.6
14Jeremiyah LoveJ. Love ARI351.7+0.018-0.112-0.1041453.33.902.2014.014.714.1
↳Tyler AllgeierT. Allgeier ARI351.7+0.018-0.112-0.1041423.32.921.9202.79.35.9
15De'Von AchaneD. Achane MIA351.3-0.056-0.212-0.0831442.33.742.3504.016.38.2
↳Ollie Gordon IIO. Gordon II MIA251.3-0.056-0.212-0.0831424.02.401.6011.57.07.6
16Breece HallB. HallO NYJ351.0+0.035-0.209-0.0851454.33.201.8413.334.014.2
↳Braelon AllenB. Allen NYJ351.0+0.035-0.209-0.0851420.33.211.4211.73.75.7
17Saquon BarkleyS. Barkley PHI350.7-0.036-0.043-0.1281458.05.122.4402.02.07.0
↳Tank BigsbyT. BigsbyFP PHI350.7-0.036-0.043-0.1281412.02.571.0711.03.33.9
18David MontgomeryD. Montgomery HOU349.1-0.060-0.235-0.0911434.32.781.6222.316.013.4
↳Woody MarksW. Marks HOU349.1-0.060-0.235-0.0911421.72.951.4512.710.37.5
19Jahmyr GibbsJ. Gibbs DET348.3+0.075-0.024-0.14814102.34.723.2547.052.032.8
20Chuba HubbardC. HubbardFP CAR347.8+0.025-0.113-0.1291461.34.493.0513.025.717.7
↳Jonathon BrooksJ. Brooks CAR247.8+0.025-0.113-0.1291415.03.332.6701.521.54.7
21Rachaad WhiteR. WhiteO WAS346.7+0.010-0.122-0.1341433.34.552.8603.017.010.0
↳Jacory Croskey-MerrittJ. Croskey-Merritt WAS346.7+0.010-0.122-0.1341447.33.021.7911.01.77.9
22RJ HarveyR. Harvey DEN246.4-0.032-0.083-0.1461412.04.802.6005.532.09.4
↳Jonah ColemanJ. Coleman DEN246.4-0.032-0.083-0.1461419.53.902.9011.59.57.4
↳J.K. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsFP DEN346.4-0.032-0.083-0.1461440.33.461.5400.71.34.5
23Javonte WilliamsJ. Williams DAL346.3+0.193-0.084-0.1461456.33.932.3524.018.716.8
↳Tyler GoodsonT. Goodson DAL146.3+0.193-0.084-0.1461422.03.672.5001.0-5.02.7
24Cam SkatteboC. Skattebo NYG345.8-0.017-0.121-0.1401459.03.541.3412.719.712.2
↳Devin SingletaryD. Singletary NYG245.8-0.017-0.121-0.1401412.52.781.2202.511.07.4
↳Najee HarrisN. Harris NYG245.8-0.017-0.121-0.1401429.04.462.0000.00.02.9
25Omarion HamptonO. Hampton LAC345.6-0.137-0.302-0.0971464.33.861.9821.07.010.5
↳Keaton MitchellK. MitchellFP LAC345.6-0.137-0.302-0.0971428.35.002.3501.33.36.5
26D'Andre SwiftD. SwiftFP CHI344.9+0.059-0.182-0.1311484.34.692.2233.022.718.7
↳Kyle MonangaiK. Monangai CHI344.9+0.059-0.182-0.1311459.35.932.2711.311.710.4
27Christian McCaffreyC. McCaffreyFP SF344.7+0.423+0.055-0.1901455.34.742.8035.734.719.3
↳Kaelon BlackK. Black SF344.7+0.423+0.055-0.1901435.74.282.6000.71.74.1
28George HolaniG. HolaniLP SEA344.3+0.029-0.397-0.0821417.33.471.8702.316.75.4
↳Jadarian PriceJ. PriceO SEA344.3+0.029-0.397-0.0821439.74.252.5702.37.04.7
↳Emanuel WilsonE. Wilson SEA344.3+0.029-0.397-0.0821436.33.412.0300.30.03.6
29Travis EtienneT. Etienne NO343.4-0.000-0.054-0.1721442.74.272.5004.317.010.3
↳Kendre MillerK. Miller NO243.4-0.000-0.054-0.1721422.03.382.1511.52.56.5
↳Alvin KamaraA. Kamara NO243.4-0.000-0.054-0.1721425.52.831.5003.56.06.2
30MarShawn LloydM. Lloyd GB343.1-0.134-0.448-0.0771422.72.961.9602.04.35.4
↳Chris BrooksC. Brooks GB343.1-0.134-0.448-0.0771413.33.642.2701.36.32.6
↳Kaleb JohnsonK. Johnson GB343.1-0.134-0.448-0.0771412.73.171.3301.03.31.9
31Quinshon JudkinsQ. Judkins CLE340.9-0.018-0.362-0.1131441.32.951.6003.017.78.9
32Kyren WilliamsK. Williams LA340.1+0.067-0.059-0.1921471.35.633.4714.035.317.7
↳Blake CorumB. Corum LA340.1+0.067-0.059-0.1921449.35.293.8201.74.36.4
↳Ronnie RiversR. Rivers LA140.1+0.067-0.059-0.1921419.03.801.6001.05.03.4
#PlayerTeamGPOutlookTm EPATm Pass EPASched EPAGms LeftTgt/GRec/GRec Y/GYds/RecRec TDPPR/G
1Deebo Samuel Sr.D. Samuel Sr. SF366.1+0.423+0.671+0.114143.73.053.017.7213.3
↳Mike EvansM. EvansQ SF366.1+0.423+0.671+0.114145.34.045.711.4212.6
↳Demarcus RobinsonD. Robinson SF266.1+0.423+0.671+0.114143.02.542.016.819.7
2CeeDee LambC. Lamb DAL362.8+0.193+0.326+0.154148.36.7103.015.4323.6
↳George PickensG. Pickens DAL362.8+0.193+0.326+0.154148.35.350.09.4010.3
↳Ryan FlournoyR. Flournoy DAL362.8+0.193+0.326+0.154146.03.022.37.405.2
3Malik NabersM. Nabers NYG359.9-0.017+0.094+0.175146.34.032.08.007.2
↳Malachi FieldsM. Fields NYG359.9-0.017+0.094+0.175144.02.024.712.304.5
4Davante AdamsD. AdamsFP LA359.3+0.067+0.134+0.163149.76.0119.319.9221.9
↳Puka NacuaP. NacuaFP LA159.3+0.067+0.134+0.163149.05.074.014.8012.4
↳Konata MumpfieldK. Mumpfield LA359.3+0.067+0.134+0.163143.71.735.021.017.2
5DeVonta SmithD. SmithO PHI358.1-0.036-0.032+0.185149.06.378.312.4116.2
↳Dontayvion WicksD. Wicks PHI358.1-0.036-0.032+0.185145.03.059.719.9111.0
↳Makai LemonM. Lemon PHI358.1-0.036-0.032+0.185143.02.312.75.403.4
6Parker WashingtonP. Washington JAX357.3+0.139+0.165+0.141147.75.073.714.7216.4
↳Jakobi MeyersJ. MeyersFP JAX357.3+0.139+0.165+0.141143.73.344.013.2211.8
↳Brian Thomas Jr.B. Thomas Jr. JAX357.3+0.139+0.165+0.141144.02.329.312.605.3
7Ja'Marr ChaseJ. Chase CIN355.5+0.203+0.299+0.100148.36.061.710.3318.2
↳Tee HigginsT. Higgins CIN355.5+0.203+0.299+0.100147.74.781.317.4114.8
8Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJ. Smith-Njigba SEA355.4+0.029+0.291+0.1011412.09.0135.015.0634.7
↳Cooper KuppC. Kupp SEA355.4+0.029+0.291+0.101143.32.733.712.618.0
↳Tory HortonT. Horton SEA155.4+0.029+0.291+0.101143.03.048.016.007.8
↳Rashid ShaheedR. ShaheedFP SEA355.4+0.029+0.291+0.101144.02.017.78.803.9
9Stefon DiggsS. Diggs WAS354.6+0.010+0.099+0.131147.34.345.010.4314.8
↳Terry McLaurinT. McLaurinQ WAS354.6+0.010+0.099+0.131147.33.347.014.1110.0
↳Antonio WilliamsA. Williams WAS354.6+0.010+0.099+0.131143.73.034.311.418.4
↳Dyami BrownD. Brown WAS354.6+0.010+0.099+0.131143.01.37.05.201.4
10DJ MooreD. MooreLP BUF352.3+0.203+0.353+0.064146.03.755.715.2111.2
↳Keon ColemanK. ColemanLP BUF352.3+0.203+0.353+0.064143.02.733.712.606.0
↳Khalil ShakirK. Shakir BUF352.3+0.203+0.353+0.064145.02.731.311.805.8
11Kalif RaymondK. Raymond CHI352.2+0.059+0.212+0.090147.06.371.311.3115.5
↳Luther Burden IIIL. Burden III CHI352.2+0.059+0.212+0.090147.75.052.010.4111.8
↳Rome OdunzeR. Odunze CHI352.2+0.059+0.212+0.090144.32.746.317.407.3
12Nico CollinsN. CollinsFP HOU151.6-0.060+0.032+0.1201410.07.075.010.7121.2
↳Xavier HutchinsonX. Hutchinson HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.120147.03.040.013.307.1
↳Jaylin NoelJ. Noel HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.120143.01.733.720.205.7
↳Kayshon BoutteK. Boutte HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.120143.02.026.313.204.6
↳Jared WayneJ. Wayne HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.120144.01.321.716.203.5
13Amon-Ra St. BrownA. St. Brown DET351.3+0.075+0.159+0.0941411.77.776.09.9525.3
↳Jameson WilliamsJ. Williams DET351.3+0.075+0.159+0.094145.73.342.312.707.6
↳Isaac TeSlaaI. TeSlaa DET351.3+0.075+0.159+0.094143.01.730.718.404.7
14Michael WilsonM. Wilson ARI351.0+0.018+0.088+0.1051410.36.054.39.1113.4
↳Kendrick BourneK. Bourne ARI351.0+0.018+0.088+0.105144.74.036.09.007.6
↳Marvin Harrison Jr.M. Harrison Jr. ARI351.0+0.018+0.088+0.105143.01.324.318.203.8
15Tre TuckerT. Tucker LV350.0+0.127+0.317+0.052145.03.763.017.2112.0
↳Jack BechJ. Bech LV250.0+0.127+0.317+0.052143.02.524.09.617.9
↳Jalen NailorJ. Nailor LV350.0+0.127+0.317+0.052143.71.717.310.403.4
16Garrett WilsonG. Wilson NYJ349.6+0.035+0.171+0.077149.07.081.011.6219.1
↳Adonai MitchellA. MitchellO NYJ249.6+0.035+0.171+0.077147.54.561.513.7010.7
↳Isaiah WilliamsI. Williams NYJ349.6+0.035+0.171+0.077143.02.720.77.805.2
17Christian WatsonC. Watson GB348.9-0.134+0.023+0.100149.75.794.716.7423.1
↳Matthew GoldenM. Golden GB348.9-0.134+0.023+0.1001410.05.084.316.9115.4
↳Jayden ReedJ. Reed GB248.9-0.134+0.023+0.100144.02.012.06.003.2
↳Skyy MooreS. Moore GB348.9-0.134+0.023+0.100143.71.712.37.402.9
18Justin JeffersonJ. JeffersonO MIN348.4-0.115-0.090+0.118145.74.359.713.8215.0
↳Jordan AddisonJ. Addison MIN348.4-0.115-0.090+0.118145.32.337.015.918.0
19Jaylen WaddleJ. WaddleFP DEN348.4-0.032+0.000+0.101146.73.750.013.609.8
↳Pat BryantP. Bryant DEN348.4-0.032+0.000+0.101143.02.028.714.318.1
↳Courtland SuttonC. Sutton DEN348.4-0.032+0.000+0.101145.32.727.310.205.4
20Zay FlowersZ. FlowersQ BAL247.6+0.201+0.413+0.014146.05.0117.023.4120.7
↳Rashod BatemanR. Bateman BAL347.6+0.201+0.413+0.014144.33.041.713.919.2
↳Ja'Kobi LaneJ. Lane BAL147.6+0.201+0.413+0.014143.01.011.011.002.1
21Josh DownsJ. Downs IND347.5-0.039-0.080+0.109148.04.762.013.3010.9
↳Keenan AllenK. AllenQ IND347.5-0.039-0.080+0.109146.74.333.37.719.7
↳Alec PierceA. Pierce IND247.5-0.039-0.080+0.109143.52.536.014.406.1
22Denzel BostonD. Boston CLE347.5-0.018+0.164+0.062145.03.065.021.7214.2
↳KC ConcepcionK. Concepcion CLE347.5-0.018+0.164+0.062146.74.026.76.706.3
23Rashee RiceR. RiceFP KC345.8+0.159+0.178+0.045145.74.363.314.6112.7
↳Xavier WorthyX. Worthy KC345.8+0.159+0.178+0.045145.03.321.06.317.4
24Jalen CokerJ. CokerQ CAR345.4+0.025+0.082+0.061147.36.074.012.3217.4
↳Tetairoa McMillanT. McMillan CAR345.4+0.025+0.082+0.061147.74.064.316.109.8
↳Xavier LegetteX. LegetteO CAR245.4+0.025+0.082+0.061143.01.032.032.004.2
25Mack HollinsM. Hollins NE345.1-0.079-0.026+0.079145.34.052.013.009.2
↳Romeo DoubsR. Doubs NE345.1-0.079-0.026+0.079143.72.048.324.206.8
↳A.J. BrownA.J. Brown NE145.1-0.079-0.026+0.079144.03.026.08.705.6
↳DeMario DouglasD. Douglas NE345.1-0.079-0.026+0.079144.72.322.39.604.6
26Wan'Dale RobinsonW. Robinson TEN345.0-0.110-0.163+0.104146.04.334.78.019.8
↳Carnell TateC. Tate TEN345.0-0.110-0.163+0.104146.74.341.09.508.4
↳Elic AyomanorE. Ayomanor TEN345.0-0.110-0.163+0.104143.01.330.322.816.4
27Chris OlaveC. Olave NO344.7-0.000+0.027+0.0651412.09.0125.013.9123.5
↳Devaughn VeleD. Vele NO344.7-0.000+0.027+0.065147.35.057.311.5112.7
28Ladd McConkeyL. McConkeyQ LAC343.7-0.137-0.009+0.064145.04.061.015.2112.1
↳Tre HarrisT. Harris LAC343.7-0.137-0.009+0.064145.33.349.714.908.3
↳Quentin JohnstonQ. Johnston LAC343.7-0.137-0.009+0.064145.72.021.310.704.4
↳Brenen ThompsonB. ThompsonO LAC143.7-0.137-0.009+0.064143.01.013.013.002.3
29Roman WilsonR. Wilson PIT341.3-0.125-0.151+0.072146.03.738.010.419.5
↳DK MetcalfD. Metcalf PIT341.3-0.125-0.151+0.072148.03.732.78.918.9
↳Michael PittmanM. Pittman PIT241.3-0.125-0.151+0.072144.02.537.014.806.2
↳Germie BernardG. Bernard PIT241.3-0.125-0.151+0.072144.52.524.59.805.0
30Caleb DouglasC. DouglasO MIA239.6-0.056+0.057+0.019145.03.556.516.109.2
↳Malik WashingtonM. Washington MIA339.6-0.056+0.057+0.019147.74.050.712.708.7
↳Chris BellC. BellFP MIA339.6-0.056+0.057+0.019143.31.730.718.404.7
↳Kevin Coleman Jr.K. Coleman Jr. MIA239.6-0.056+0.057+0.019143.00.51.53.000.7
31Emeka EgbukaE. Egbuka TB338.7-0.288-0.396+0.098146.74.347.010.8110.9
↳Chris Godwin Jr.C. Godwin Jr.FP TB338.7-0.288-0.396+0.098143.73.337.011.107.5
↳Ted Hurst IIIT. Hurst III TB338.7-0.288-0.396+0.098144.32.034.317.217.4
32Drake LondonD. London ATL335.5-0.152-0.337+0.061146.35.091.318.3014.3
↳Jahan DotsonJ. Dotson ATL335.5-0.152-0.337+0.061143.31.313.710.202.7
#PlayerTeamGPOutlookTm EPATm Pass EPASched EPAGms LeftTgt/GRec/GRec Y/GYds/RecRec TDPPR/G
1George KittleG. Kittle SF366.1+0.423+0.671+0.114145.34.058.014.5315.8
2Jake FergusonJ. Ferguson DAL362.8+0.193+0.326+0.154143.73.024.08.0310.7
3Isaiah LikelyI. Likely NYG359.9-0.017+0.094+0.175147.75.041.38.3213.1
↳Theo JohnsonT. Johnson NYG259.9-0.017+0.094+0.175142.50.54.59.000.9
4Tyler HigbeeT. HigbeeDNP LA259.3+0.067+0.134+0.163146.55.037.07.4110.7
↳Terrance FergusonT. FergusonO LA359.3+0.067+0.134+0.163144.02.321.09.016.4
5Dallas GoedertD. GoedertO PHI258.1-0.036-0.032+0.185143.52.540.516.2212.5
↳Johnny MundtJ. Mundt PHI258.1-0.036-0.032+0.185142.01.56.04.002.1
↳Zach ErtzZ. Ertz PHI158.1-0.036-0.032+0.185142.01.09.09.001.9
6Brenton StrangeB. Strange JAX357.3+0.139+0.165+0.141143.32.324.010.316.7
7Mike GesickiM. Gesicki CIN255.5+0.203+0.299+0.100145.04.057.514.4215.8
↳Drew SampleD. Sample CIN255.5+0.203+0.299+0.100142.52.09.54.803.0
↳Erick AllE. All CIN155.5+0.203+0.299+0.100143.02.05.02.502.5
8AJ BarnerA. Barner SEA355.4+0.029+0.291+0.101144.02.730.011.207.7
9Chig OkonkwoC. OkonkwoLP WAS154.6+0.010+0.099+0.131143.02.016.08.003.6
↳John BatesJ. Bates WAS254.6+0.010+0.099+0.131142.01.511.07.302.6
10Dalton KincaidD. Kincaid BUF352.3+0.203+0.353+0.064145.74.787.718.8114.8
11Colston LovelandC. Loveland CHI352.2+0.059+0.212+0.090143.01.711.36.802.8
↳Sam RoushS. Roush CHI252.2+0.059+0.212+0.090142.01.012.512.502.2
12Dalton SchultzD. SchultzLP HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.120148.36.368.310.8013.2
↳Foster MoreauF. Moreau HOU351.6-0.060+0.032+0.120142.72.018.79.315.9
13Sam LaPortaS. LaPorta DET351.3+0.075+0.159+0.094146.34.748.010.3111.5
14Trey McBrideT. McBride ARI351.0+0.018+0.088+0.1051411.38.770.38.1219.7
15Brock BowersB. BowersLP LV150.0+0.127+0.317+0.0521413.010.0116.011.6127.6
↳Michael MayerM. Mayer LV350.0+0.127+0.317+0.052144.74.029.07.218.9
16Kenyon SadiqK. SadiqQ NYJ349.6+0.035+0.171+0.077144.74.047.711.9112.9
↳Jeremy RuckertJ. RuckertFP NYJ349.6+0.035+0.171+0.077142.72.716.06.016.3
↳Mason TaylorM. TaylorO NYJ149.6+0.035+0.171+0.077143.02.0-2.0-1.001.8
17Tucker KraftT. Kraft GB348.9-0.134+0.023+0.100145.73.035.311.806.5
↳Jonnu SmithJ. Smith GB248.9-0.134+0.023+0.100143.02.033.016.505.3
18T.J. HockensonT.J. Hockenson MIN348.4-0.115-0.090+0.118144.33.025.38.417.5
19Evan EngramE. Engram DEN348.4-0.032+0.000+0.101142.71.720.012.015.7
↳Adam TrautmanA. Trautman DEN148.4-0.032+0.000+0.101143.02.010.05.003.0
20Mark AndrewsM. AndrewsFP BAL347.6+0.201+0.413+0.014146.04.340.79.408.4
21Tyler WarrenT. Warren IND347.5-0.039-0.080+0.109147.36.029.74.9213.1
22Harold Fannin Jr.H. Fannin Jr. CLE347.5-0.018+0.164+0.062146.04.742.09.0212.9
23Travis KelceT. Kelce KC345.8+0.159+0.178+0.045146.04.777.016.5216.4
24Darren WallerD. WallerFP CAR345.4+0.025+0.082+0.061144.33.337.311.2211.1
↳Tommy TrembleT. Tremble CAR345.4+0.025+0.082+0.061143.72.323.310.004.7
↳Mitchell EvansM. Evans CAR345.4+0.025+0.082+0.061142.01.719.311.603.6
25Hunter HenryH. Henry NE345.1-0.079-0.026+0.079143.32.323.710.104.7
26Gunnar HelmG. Helm TEN345.0-0.110-0.163+0.104143.72.718.36.904.5
27Juwan JohnsonJ. Johnson NO344.7-0.000+0.027+0.065146.35.057.711.5316.1
↳Noah FantN. FantQ NO344.7-0.000+0.027+0.065144.02.722.08.2310.9
28David NjokuD. Njoku LAC243.7-0.137-0.009+0.064144.03.033.511.206.4
↳Oronde Gadsden IIO. Gadsden II LAC343.7-0.137-0.009+0.064142.31.316.712.515.0
29Pat FreiermuthP. Freiermuth PIT341.3-0.125-0.151+0.072144.73.736.09.819.4
↳Darnell WashingtonD. Washington PIT341.3-0.125-0.151+0.072142.72.030.715.305.1
30Greg DulcichG. Dulcich MIA339.6-0.056+0.057+0.019144.03.030.010.006.0
31Cade OttonC. Otton TB338.7-0.288-0.396+0.098145.73.740.010.907.7
32Austin HooperA. Hooper ATL235.5-0.152-0.337+0.061143.02.015.57.816.5
↳Kyle PittsK. Pitts ATL335.5-0.152-0.337+0.061142.00.76.710.001.3
Streaming picks

Streaming kickers, defenses and skill players, week 4

Kickers and defenses ranked by the walk-forward models; QB, RB, WR and TE streamers (outside the starter line by season-to-date PPR) ranked by the game projection engine. Top 5 in each tab are the week's stream picks; once played, a pick is a hit when it finishes top 10.
The market's implied team points carry most of it; an offense that sustains drives without explosives (high success rate, low EPA) turns scoring into field goals. Backtest 2021-25: weekly top-5 averaged 8.84 vs a 7.86 field. Green/amber = better/worse than this week's field. This week: stream picks averaged 10.4 vs field 8.9, 2 of 5 finished top 10.
#KickerTeamOppImpliedOff SROff EPAStallAvgProjActual
1Will ReichardW. Reichard streamMINMIA ⌂24.338%-0.1153%10.09.619
2Ka'imi FairbairnK. Fairbairn streamHOUDAL ⌂25.842%-0.0457%9.89.016
3Jason MyersJ. Myers streamSEALAC24.847%0.0443%9.99.05
4Tyler LoopT. Loop streamBALTEN27.048%0.1039%9.28.97
5Evan McPhersonE. McPherson streamCINJAX27.047%0.0844%10.48.95
6Spencer ShraderS. Shrader IND@ WAS25.544%0.0248%10.78.916
7Harrison ButkerH. Butker KC@ LV ⌂26.047%0.0848%8.78.66
8Jake BatesJ. Bates DET@ CAR28.548%0.0730%7.98.618
9Daniel CarlsonD. Carlson NOATL ⌂24.544%-0.0450%7.18.55
10Nick FolkN. Folk ATL@ NO ⌂23.046%-0.0459%7.98.39
11Brandon AubreyB. Aubrey DAL@ HOU ⌂22.848%0.1545%10.18.311
12Eddy PineiroE. Pineiro SFDEN25.853%0.2035%8.28.26
13Matt GayM. Gay LVKC ⌂21.541%-0.0848%7.68.116
14Tyler BassT. Bass BUFNE28.349%0.1627%6.98.18
15Chris BoswellC. Boswell PIT@ CLE20.543%-0.0351%8.58.03
16Cairo SantosC. Santos CHINYJ23.545%0.0840%9.27.911
17Chase McLaughlinC. McLaughlin TBGB17.840%-0.1158%10.77.92
18Jason SandersJ. Sanders NYJ@ CHI20.042%-0.0856%7.97.85
19Chad RylandC. Ryland ARI@ NYG23.544%0.0152%8.47.78
20Harrison MevisH. Mevis LA@ PHI23.049%0.1234%7.37.66
21Cam LittleC. Little JAX@ CIN24.547%0.0839%8.67.614
22Ryan FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald CARDET24.042%-0.0246%8.17.57
23Andre SzmytA. Szmyt CLEPIT18.037%-0.1255%7.37.412
24Trey SmackT. Smack GB@ TB20.844%0.0547%7.47.37
25Cameron DickerC. Dicker LAC@ SEA17.843%-0.0553%7.37.012
26Dominic ZvadaD. Zvada NYGARI21.043%0.0147%6.97.014
27Wil LutzW. Lutz DEN@ SF22.843%0.0245%6.46.88
28Andy BorregalesA. Borregales NE@ BUF21.346%0.0648%7.76.83
29Riley PattersonR. Patterson MIA@ MIN ⌂14.341%-0.0255%6.86.84
30Drew StevensD. Stevens WASIND21.043%0.0047%6.96.67
31Jake ElliottJ. Elliott PHILA19.541%0.0133%5.86.510
32Joey SlyeJ. Slye TEN@ BAL15.538%-0.1554%6.36.24
A low opponent implied total plus being the favorite carries most of it; giveaway-prone and often-sacked offenses donate. Backtest 2021-25: weekly top-5 averaged 8.97 vs a 6.28 field. Green/amber = better/worse than this week's field. This week: stream picks averaged 7.4 vs field 5.0, 4 of 5 finished top 10.
#DefenseOppOpp impEdgeOpp EPAOpp SRSackedGive/gAvgProjActual
1MIN DSTstreamMIA ⌂14.310.0-0.0241%7%0.910.310.48
2PIT DSTstream@ CLE18.02.5-0.1237%7%0.88.48.86
3BAL DSTstreamTEN15.511.5-0.1538%7%0.64.88.86
4SEA DSTstreamLAC17.87.0-0.0543%8%1.28.78.612
5LA DSTstream@ PHI19.53.50.0141%6%1.16.68.15
6GB DST@ TB17.83.0-0.1140%9%1.33.28.08
7BUF DSTNE21.37.00.0646%8%1.55.57.64
8CHI DSTNYJ20.03.5-0.0842%9%0.67.47.57
9KC DST@ LV ⌂21.54.5-0.0841%9%0.85.77.04
10ARI DST@ NYG21.02.50.0143%8%0.83.47.06
11TB DSTGB20.8-3.00.0544%6%0.95.46.75
12DET DST@ CAR24.04.5-0.0242%6%1.15.36.62
13HOU DSTDAL ⌂22.83.00.1548%3%0.87.16.54
14IND DST@ WAS21.04.50.0043%4%0.73.86.48
15CLE DSTPIT20.5-2.5-0.0343%5%0.86.06.09
16CIN DSTJAX24.52.50.0847%6%0.86.05.84
17SF DSTDEN22.83.00.0243%4%1.04.85.73
18ATL DST@ NO ⌂24.5-1.5-0.0444%7%1.45.65.54
19WAS DSTIND25.5-4.50.0244%5%1.54.35.55
20NYG DSTARI23.5-2.50.0144%6%0.54.55.414
21LAC DST@ SEA24.8-7.00.0447%4%1.26.35.44
22MIA DST@ MIN ⌂24.3-10.0-0.1138%11%0.93.45.35
23DEN DST@ SF25.8-3.00.2053%3%0.78.45.22
24NYJ DST@ CHI23.5-3.50.0845%4%0.83.85.25
25NO DSTATL ⌂23.01.5-0.0446%6%1.15.15.1-3
26PHI DSTLA23.0-3.50.1249%4%0.95.45.15
27LV DSTKC ⌂26.0-4.50.0847%5%0.87.74.71
28JAX DST@ CIN27.0-2.50.0847%5%0.79.14.77
29NE DST@ BUF28.3-7.00.1649%8%1.36.94.65
30DAL DST@ HOU ⌂25.8-3.0-0.0442%6%0.72.64.41
31TEN DST@ BAL27.0-11.50.1048%7%0.74.64.12
32CAR DSTDET28.5-4.50.0748%6%0.67.64.01
Every starting QB, one per team; the top 12 by average PPR over 2026 weeks 1–3 are badged starters. Ranked by the engine's PPR line for this week off the team's implied points, the player's share of the offense and the opponent: Opp run D and Opp pass D are the defense reads the engine leans on (green = softer than league, amber = tougher). Once played, the actual sits beside each projection: green over, amber under; a ✓ marks a top-10 finish. This week: stream picks averaged 16.4 vs a 13.6 streamer field, 4 of 5 finished top 10.
#PlayerTeamOppImpliedOpp run DOpp pass DAttPass ydsPass TDINTRushAvgProjActual
1Brock PurdyB. Purdy starterSFDEN25.841.2%-0.47.0-0.131.9302382181.7920.810282927.0 (3)19.119.6
2Tyler ShoughT. Shough starterNOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.436.6482502861.8310.66019523.1 (3)18.815.9
3Lamar JacksonL. JacksonFP starterBALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.129.6202242221.3820.640292020.1 (3)18.018.9
4Josh AllenJ. Allen starterBUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.430.4332182531.4410.77126431.3 (3)18.018.5
5C.J. StroudC.J. Stroud streamHOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.232.5312273471.5520.640231215.1 (3)17.623.1✓
6Sam DarnoldS. Darnold streamSEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.431.5222381681.9420.75112614.1 (2)17.413.3✓
7Joe BurrowJ. Burrow streamCINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.731.1542314282.0310.68210617.6 (3)17.423.7✓
8Bryce YoungB. YoungFP starterCARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.435.7412643291.7520.6908323.1 (3)17.421.5
9Dak PrescottD. Prescott starterDAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.432.7452363351.5810.73019721.0 (3)17.218.1
10Geno SmithG. Smith streamNYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.331.6152311191.2610.83029017.0 (3)16.98.8
11Patrick MahomesP. MahomesFP starterKC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.032.1302332251.8020.77013022.2 (3)16.817.0
12Deshaun WatsonD. Watson starterCLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.329.9332152681.4110.811332218.0 (3)16.812.9
13Trevor LawrenceT. Lawrence streamJAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.132.1232312271.7010.72015017.3 (3)16.813.1✓
14Kyler MurrayK. Murray MINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.828.5372072471.6200.64020165.0 (2)16.511.5
15Drake MayeD. MayeFP NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.231.5372242691.3330.73123547.2 (3)16.326.2✓
16Jared GoffJ. Goff starterDET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.432.3522234121.9310.7006021.9 (3)16.220.5
17Jalen HurtsJ. Hurts PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.831.327208931.3520.700221817.8 (3)15.413.5✓
18Matthew StaffordM. Stafford LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.132.2512303171.7300.62241017.3 (3)15.49.7
19Jacoby BrissettJ. Brissett ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.133.5352221661.5720.69391816.2 (3)15.210.4
20Malik WillisM. Willis MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.032.417229850.8300.740301113.1 (3)15.22.5
21Aaron RodgersA. Rodgers PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.133.7402282991.5730.6826013.1 (3)14.822.0✓
22Jordan LoveJ. Love GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.033.3302321971.6620.7312-817.3 (3)14.713.1
23Daniel JonesD. Jones IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.732.2342321431.4500.741629.4 (3)14.77.9
24Bo NixB. Nix DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.331.9422152141.5210.72091014.6 (3)14.613.6✓
25Athan KaliakmanisA. Kaliakmanis WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.832.4332301861.6210.561016—14.511.0
26Kirk CousinsK. Cousins starterLVKC21.537.7%-3.96.5-0.531.4522133651.7220.7810018.7 (3)13.922.6
27Justin HerbertJ. Herbert LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.830.7312031891.1410.722184011.3 (3)13.89.6
28Jameis WinstonJ. Winston NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.829.5292132501.4530.922504.3 (2)13.418.0✓
29Michael Penix Jr.M. Penix Jr. ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.131.0202152231.3210.6804-214.0 (1)13.212.7
30Jalon DanielsJ. Daniels TBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.131.6272181481.0910.682855-1.1 (1)12.911.4
31Cam WardC. Ward TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.231.9312132220.9510.631112713.7 (3)12.615.6✓
32Tyson BagentT. Bagent CHINYJ23.542.3%+0.76.6-0.432.0342192681.2000.771112.2 (1)12.18.8
RB streamers: every RB outside the starter line (top 24 by average PPR over 2026 weeks 1–3; 23 set aside, 95 in the pool). Ranked by the engine's PPR line for this week off the team's implied points, the player's share of the offense and the opponent: Opp run D and Opp pass D are the defense reads the engine leans on (green = softer than league, amber = tougher). Once played, the actual sits beside each projection: green over, amber under; a ✓ marks a top-10 finish. This week: stream picks averaged 10.1 vs a 5.6 streamer field, 2 of 5 finished top 10.
#PlayerTeamOppImpliedOpp run DOpp pass DTouchesRushRecRec ydsTDAvgProjActual
1De'Von AchaneD. Achane streamMIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.016.2394.2230.378.2 (3)12.7—
2Tony PollardT. PollardFP streamTEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.216.22066481.62920.4618.5 (3)11.913.0✓
3Rhamondre StevensonR. Stevenson streamNE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.211.31834472.7320270.4018.3 (3)10.518.4✓
4Saquon BarkleyS. Barkley streamPHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.816.035182.61520.3707.0 (3)10.52.0
5Jacory Croskey-MerrittJ. Croskey-Merritt streamWASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.818.41374150.522350.3807.9 (3)10.37.0
6Travis EtienneT. Etienne NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.412.1352.2130.3810.3 (3)9.4—
7Quinshon JudkinsQ. Judkins CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.313.72435532.1616430.2718.9 (3)8.921.6✓
8RJ HarveyR. Harvey DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.37.61717252.81025680.3109.4 (2)8.819.3✓
9Emanuel WilsonE. Wilson SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.416.12557810.533390.3623.6 (3)8.727.0✓
10J.K. DobbinsJ.K. DobbinsFP DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.312.71350400.622120.4204.5 (3)8.47.2
11MarShawn LloydM. Lloyd GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.012.41240131.155360.3005.4 (3)7.59.9
12TreVeyon HendersonT. Henderson NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.211.41642420.70400.3608.8 (2)7.44.2
13Braelon AllenB. Allen NYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.312.21637591.22580.3205.7 (3)7.38.7
14Woody MarksW. Marks HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.211.4732221.20600.3517.5 (3)7.28.2
15George HolaniG. HolaniLP SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.48.6831181.211020.2605.4 (3)6.93.0
16Blake CorumB. Corum LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.110.8741140.81370.2506.4 (3)6.73.1
17Kenny GainwellK. Gainwell TBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.19.251252.9216220.1713.4 (3)6.710.7
18Tyjae SpearsT. SpearsQ TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.26.931772.0115-10.1704.6 (3)6.21.6
19Raheim SandersR. Sanders CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.34.64991.822270.1905.6 (3)6.13.6
20Tyler AllgeierT. Allgeier ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.18.21019421.621070.2415.9 (3)6.012.9✓
21Brian RobinsonB. Robinson ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.17.81531620.51650.3037.6 (3)5.925.7✓
22Alvin KamaraA. Kamara NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.48.81418232.257350.2026.2 (2)5.822.8✓
23Emmett JohnsonE. Johnson KC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.05.711500.8118100.2605.3 (3)5.72.0
24Samaje PerineS. Perine CINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.76.441571.501200.2304.5 (3)5.70.7
25Will ShipleyW. ShipleyFP PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.84.577231.901500.1503.1 (3)5.02.3
26Jonah ColemanJ. Coleman DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.35.9191.170.207.4 (2)4.9—
27Chris Rodriguez Jr.C. Rodriguez Jr. JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.17.3629350.10200.2514.4 (3)4.79.5
28Ty JohnsonT. Johnson BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.43.03331.422090.1809.0 (1)4.73.2
29Kaelon BlackK. Black SFDEN25.841.2%-0.47.0-0.17.8627130.40100.2204.1 (3)4.61.3
30Keaton MitchellK. MitchellFP LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.86.71621391.154240.1806.5 (3)4.611.3
31Tank BigsbyT. BigsbyFP PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.85.61517551.00900.1703.9 (3)4.65.5
32Mike Washington Jr.M. Washington Jr. LVKC21.537.7%-3.96.5-0.54.51131180.210-10.1605.4 (3)4.32.7
33Justice HillJ. Hill BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.14.341230.927220.1803.6 (3)3.94.5
34Devin SingletaryD. Singletary NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.84.7131.160.137.4 (2)3.7—
35Chris BrooksC. Brooks GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.04.7513300.81850.1402.6 (3)3.74.5
36Tyrone Tracy Jr.T. Tracy Jr.FP NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.84.3115-10.70600.140-0.1 (3)3.6-0.1
37Sione VakiS. Vaki DET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.43.321400.517170.1803.5 (3)3.62.7
38Kaleb JohnsonK. Johnson GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.07.1820420.40200.1501.9 (3)3.52.2
39Jonathon BrooksJ. Brooks CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.44.3120.680.144.7 (2)3.4—
40Bam KnightB. Knight ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.13.5160.430.152.4 (1)3.2—
41Najee HarrisN. Harris NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.84.4920300.20200.1402.9 (2)3.13.0
42Kene NwangwuK. NwangwuFP NYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.36.301900.30000.150—3.10.0
43Ameer AbdullahA. Abdullah JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.13.701001.00400.1102.2 (3)3.10.0
44Kendre MillerK. Miller NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.44.791390.723100.1206.5 (2)3.01.9
45Ollie Gordon IIO. Gordon II MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.06.411111000.72600.1017.6 (2)3.018.0✓
46Audric EstiméA. Estimé CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.33.6120.550.09—2.9—
47Kimani VidalK. Vidal LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.83.588250.827110.1011.5 (2)2.811.6✓
48Tyler BadieT. Badie DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.32.04170.9211320.0903.7 (2)2.77.9
49Austin EkelerA. Ekeler WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.83.7612290.614110.080—2.75.0
50Corey KinerC. Kiner NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.24.601200.40300.1201.6 (3)2.60.0
51Emari DemercadoE. Demercado DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.43.4120.330.120.8 (2)2.5—
52Michael CarterM. Carter TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.23.1110.530.08—2.4—
53Jaylen WrightJ. WrightFP MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.03.851070.40400.0900.5 (2)2.30.7
54Isaiah DavisI. Davis NYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.32.10800.30500.0900.0 (2)2.20.0
55AJ DillonA. Dillon CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.44.561220.31150.0901.6 (3)2.11.7
56DeeJay DallasD. Dallas MINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.81.71300.617100.0801.4 (3)2.12.0
57DJ HermanD. Herman MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.01.601.080.031.4 (2)2.0—
58Kaytron AllenK. Allen WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.83.231510.00000.0702.0 (2)1.90.1
59Ray DavisR. DavisQ BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.41.62730.21340.1100.2 (2)1.91.7
60Brashard SmithB. Smith KC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.02.050.730.060.7 (2)1.9—
61Brady RussellB. Russell SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.40.80000.60900.0703.5 (2)1.90.0
62Dylan SampsonD. Sampson CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.32.040.640.050.0 (1)1.7—
63LeQuint Allen Jr.L. Allen Jr.LP JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.11.50200.80400.0401.5 (2)1.50.0
64Jaleel McLaughlinJ. McLaughlin CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.31.517280.30200.0410.3 (1)1.48.8
65Seth McGowanS. McGowan IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.72.086310.21070.0800.8 (3)1.24.8
66Hunter LuepkeH. Luepke DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.41.41400.21220.0500.4 (2)1.21.2
67Jeremy McNicholsJ. McNichols WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.81.420.530.03—1.1—
68Ronnie RiversR. Rivers LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.11.440.210.043.4 (1)1.0—
69DJ GiddensD. Giddens IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.71.150.100.06—0.9—
70Jaydon BlueJ. Blue PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.81.860.100.04—0.9—
71Jordan JamesJ. James SFDEN25.841.2%-0.47.0-0.11.260.000.051.5 (1)0.9—
72Tyler GoodsonT. Goodson DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.42.146120.20-100.0402.7 (1)0.81.2
73Reggie GilliamR. GilliamQ NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.20.800.520.011.4 (1)0.8—
74Travis HomerT. Homer PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.11.226-10.00000.0300.8 (2)0.8-0.1
75Sean TuckerS. Tucker TBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.11.734100.10100.031—0.87.0
76Rasheen AliR. Ali BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.10.700.430.020.0 (3)0.8—
77Lan LarisonL. Larison NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.20.500.330.022.9 (1)0.7—
78Demond ClaiborneD. Claiborne MINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.82.030120.40100.0100.7 (2)0.71.2
79CJ DonaldsonC. Donaldson NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.41.453180.22050.0200.6 (3)0.64.3
80British BrooksB. BrooksDNP HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.20.730.000.030.0 (1)0.5—
WR streamers: every WR outside the starter line (top 36 by average PPR over 2026 weeks 1–3; 33 set aside, 150 in the pool). Ranked by the engine's PPR line for this week off the team's implied points, the player's share of the offense and the opponent: Opp run D and Opp pass D are the defense reads the engine leans on (green = softer than league, amber = tougher). Once played, the actual sits beside each projection: green over, amber under; a ✓ marks a top-10 finish. This week: stream picks averaged 19.0 vs a 6.1 streamer field, 1 of 5 finished top 10.
#PlayerTeamOppImpliedOpp run DOpp pass DTouchesRushRecRec ydsTDAvgProjActual
1Jordan AddisonJ. Addison streamMINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.88.472-15.1473520.5608.0 (3)16.09.1
2Terry McLaurinT. McLaurinQ streamWASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.86.904.4610.4310.0 (3)13.1—
3Malik WashingtonM. Washington streamMIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.08.97435.4554670.2208.7 (3)12.612.0
4Tetairoa McMillanT. McMillan streamCARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.47.516004.514531920.3629.8 (3)12.045.2✓
5George PickensG. Pickens streamDAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.47.13004.5251750.34010.3 (3)11.69.5
6DK MetcalfD. Metcalf PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.17.99004.85421150.2708.9 (3)10.616.5✓
7Carnell TateC. Tate TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.26.612004.49451450.2008.4 (3)10.221.5✓
8Wan'Dale RobinsonW. Robinson TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.26.26014.3346190.2119.8 (3)10.211.0
9Jaylen WaddleJ. WaddleFP DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.36.46604.1536350.3119.8 (3)10.114.5
10Mack HollinsM. Hollins NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.25.94003.8346530.2809.2 (3)10.08.3
11Jameson WilliamsJ. Williams DET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.45.38003.26411020.3507.6 (3)9.416.2✓
12Malik NabersM. Nabers NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.86.27003.96381120.2517.2 (3)9.323.2✓
13Tre HarrisT. Harris LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.85.15003.4342600.2508.3 (3)9.29.0
14Makai LemonM. Lemon PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.86.56004.3336270.2003.4 (3)9.15.7
15Isaiah WilliamsI. Williams NYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.35.131003.2234730.2515.2 (3)9.115.3
16Keenan AllenK. AllenQ IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.75.803.9360.229.7 (3)8.9—
17Romeo DoubsR. Doubs NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.24.49002.8643580.2726.8 (3)8.723.8✓
18Rome OdunzeR. Odunze CHINYJ23.542.3%+0.76.6-0.45.57003.0641940.2207.3 (3)8.515.4
19Chris Godwin Jr.C. Godwin Jr.FP TBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.14.67402.9638310.2107.5 (3)8.49.1
20Alec PierceA. Pierce IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.73.802.1450.286.1 (2)8.3—
21Chris BellC. BellFP MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.04.43002.804400.1604.7 (3)8.10.0
22Darnell MooneyD. Mooney NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.83.82202.104100.2905.5 (3)8.10.0
23Roman WilsonR. Wilson PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.15.16003.3334740.2319.5 (3)8.116.4✓
24Courtland SuttonC. Sutton DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.35.56003.313440.2305.4 (3)8.01.4
25Pat BryantP. Bryant DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.33.53302.2336470.2808.1 (3)7.87.7
26Ryan FlournoyR. Flournoy DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.45.55003.7430370.1905.2 (3)7.87.7
27Xavier HutchinsonX. Hutchinson HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.25.65202.7333460.2507.1 (3)7.87.6
28Malachi FieldsM. Fields NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.83.93002.5236520.2314.5 (3)7.513.2
29KC ConcepcionK. Concepcion CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.37.28004.1524640.1506.3 (3)7.411.4
30Rashod BatemanR. Bateman BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.14.42002.7235460.2109.2 (3)7.46.6
31Quentin JohnstonQ. Johnston LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.86.131-43.5128440.1504.4 (3)7.45.0
32Antonio WilliamsA. Williams WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.83.48002.4335210.2508.4 (3)7.45.1
33Cooper KuppC. Kupp SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.43.92002.8131130.2508.0 (3)7.32.3
34Khalil ShakirK. Shakir BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.45.18003.7726820.1705.8 (3)7.313.2
35Ted Hurst IIIT. Hurst III TBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.14.23002.7235250.1707.4 (3)7.24.5
36Brian Thomas Jr.B. Thomas Jr. JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.14.32002.6229170.2315.3 (3)6.99.7
37Xavier WorthyX. Worthy KC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.05.17103.0426700.1907.4 (3)6.811.0
38Demarcus RobinsonD. Robinson SFDEN25.841.2%-0.47.0-0.13.101.9320.249.7 (2)6.6—
39Keon ColemanK. ColemanLP BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.43.77002.36311160.2016.0 (3)6.623.6✓
40Elic AyomanorE. Ayomanor TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.23.91002.1133220.1406.4 (3)6.23.2
41Kendrick BourneK. Bourne ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.13.502.5260.187.6 (3)6.2—
42Michael PittmanM. Pittman PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.13.84002.6224150.1706.2 (2)6.03.5
43Isaac TeSlaaI. TeSlaa DET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.42.98001.8426950.2204.7 (3)5.813.5
44Jauan JenningsJ. Jennings MINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.83.91002.512280.1700.6 (2)5.71.8
45Jaylin NoelJ. Noel HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.22.941041.4319850.2305.7 (3)5.711.9
46Rashid ShaheedR. ShaheedFP SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.44.553332.6119200.1613.9 (3)5.712.3
47A.J. BrownA.J. Brown NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.23.001.9280.175.6 (1)5.7—
48DeMario DouglasD. Douglas NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.24.03002.7221150.1204.6 (3)5.53.5
49Jayden ReedJ. Reed GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.03.912.7190.143.2 (2)5.5—
50Tyquan ThorntonT. Thornton KC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.02.58001.45261110.2025.6 (3)5.228.1✓
51Marvin Harrison Jr.M. Harrison Jr. ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.13.34001.9124120.1613.8 (3)5.28.2
52Ryan MillerR. Miller MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.01.40000.903200.1209.1 (2)4.90.0
53Brycen TremayneB. Tremayne CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.42.03001.4225320.1704.1 (3)4.95.2
54Germie BernardG. Bernard PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.13.02002.0220110.1305.0 (2)4.83.1
55Jahan DotsonJ. Dotson ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.14.23002.4218540.1012.7 (3)4.813.4
56Kayshon BoutteK. Boutte HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.22.64001.7321360.1304.6 (3)4.66.6
57Konata MumpfieldK. Mumpfield LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.13.03001.811970.1407.2 (3)4.61.7
58John Metchie IIIJ. Metchie III CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.42.95001.8319370.1305.0 (2)4.56.7
59Jalen NailorJ. Nailor LVKC21.537.7%-3.96.5-0.53.202.0160.123.4 (3)4.3—
60Jared WayneJ. Wayne HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.22.701.7160.113.5 (3)4.0—
61Dohnte MeyersD. Meyers CINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.72.49201.5713820.1403.2 (3)3.915.2
62Troy FranklinT. Franklin DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.32.121.1170.132.4 (3)3.8—
63Laquon TreadwellL. Treadwell IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.71.36000.9521420.1304.0 (3)3.89.2
64Jerry JeudyJ. Jeudy CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.33.03001.7315360.0902.3 (2)3.76.6
65Tez JohnsonT. Johnson TBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.12.530101.3219170.0902.4 (3)3.74.7
66Darius CooperD. CooperFP PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.82.07001.4317330.1123.5 (3)3.718.3✓
67Jack BechJ. Bech LVKC21.537.7%-3.96.5-0.52.001.4160.127.9 (2)3.7—
68Calvin RidleyC. Ridley TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.22.22001.3119130.0802.8 (2)3.72.3
69Chris MooreC. MooreQ BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.12.301.5140.085.1 (3)3.4—
70Kyle WilliamsK. Williams NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.22.12001.201400.0802.1 (3)3.20.0
71Olamide ZaccheausO. Zaccheaus ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.12.91001.901000.0501.9 (3)3.10.0
72Tory HortonT. Horton SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.41.61001.111460.1117.8 (1)3.17.6
73Andrei IosivasA. Iosivas CINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.72.101.3120.112.5 (2)3.1—
74Jordan WatkinsJ. Watkins SFDEN25.841.2%-0.47.0-0.11.100.7160.128.0 (1)3.1—
75Bryce LanceB. Lance NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.42.45001.611070.0703.0 (3)3.01.7
76Skyy MooreS. Moore GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.02.42001.4110-20.0702.9 (3)2.90.8
77Devontez WalkerD. Walker BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.11.22000.8114190.0902.9 (2)2.72.9
78Dyami BrownD. Brown WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.82.64101.538650.0501.4 (3)2.79.5
79KaVontae TurpinK. Turpin DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.42.00400.801000.1003.6 (3)2.70.0
80Josh CameronJ. Cameron JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.11.72001.1210420.0806.1 (3)2.76.2
TE streamers: every TE outside the starter line (top 12 by average PPR over 2026 weeks 1–3; 12 set aside, 90 in the pool). Ranked by the engine's PPR line for this week off the team's implied points, the player's share of the offense and the opponent: Opp run D and Opp pass D are the defense reads the engine leans on (green = softer than league, amber = tougher). Once played, the actual sits beside each projection: green over, amber under; a ✓ marks a top-10 finish. This week: stream picks averaged 16.4 vs a 4.7 streamer field, 2 of 5 finished top 10.
#PlayerTeamOppImpliedOpp run DOpp pass DTouchesRushRecRec ydsTDAvgProjActual
1T.J. HockensonT.J. Hockenson streamMINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.86.213004.413481190.3707.5 (3)11.424.9✓
2Sam LaPortaS. LaPorta streamDET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.45.113003.7838840.34111.5 (3)9.622.4✓
3Cade OttonC. Otton streamTBGB17.842.1%+0.57.1+0.15.46003.7439370.2107.7 (3)8.97.7
4Pat FreiermuthP. Freiermuth streamPIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.15.35103.3337170.2719.4 (3)8.610.7
5Greg DulcichG. Dulcich streamMIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.05.303.5410.176.0 (3)8.6—
6Tucker KraftT. Kraft GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.04.68033.2631420.2316.5 (3)7.716.5✓
7Mark AndrewsM. AndrewsFP BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.15.86004.0524270.1918.4 (3)7.613.7✓
8Brenton StrangeB. Strange JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.14.48003.1730950.2206.7 (3)7.516.5✓
9Darren WallerD. WallerFP CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.44.36002.9330360.23011.1 (3)7.36.6
10AJ BarnerA. Barner SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.44.63003.1128120.2407.7 (3)7.32.2
11Michael MayerM. Mayer LVKC21.537.7%-3.96.5-0.54.110002.8828820.2308.9 (3)7.016.2✓
12Darnell WashingtonD. Washington PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.13.25002.3331270.2215.1 (3)6.711.7✓
13Chig OkonkwoC. OkonkwoLP WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.84.14002.922650.1803.6 (1)6.62.5
14Hunter HenryH. Henry NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.24.35002.9525620.1604.7 (3)6.311.2✓
15Josh OliverJ. Oliver MINMIA24.344.7%+3.27.8+0.82.501.8290.232.5 (3)6.1—
16Colston LovelandC. Loveland CHINYJ23.542.3%+0.76.6-0.44.69003.1621570.1202.8 (3)6.011.7✓
17Zach ErtzZ. Ertz PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.83.74002.4223130.1701.9 (1)5.73.3
18Kyle PittsK. Pitts ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.13.83002.4323470.1301.3 (3)5.57.7
19Jake FergusonJ. Ferguson DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.43.64002.6320110.14010.7 (3)5.54.1
20Tommy TrembleT. Tremble CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.43.34002.2421120.1404.7 (3)5.15.2
21Tyler HigbeeT. HigbeeDNP LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.13.36002.3518670.17010.7 (2)5.111.7✓
22Evan EngramE. Engram DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.32.75001.912160.1605.7 (3)5.01.6
23Gunnar HelmG. Helm TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.23.41002.511950.0904.5 (3)5.03.5
24Jeremy RuckertJ. RuckertFP NYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.33.202.3150.106.3 (3)4.4—
25Noah GrayN. Gray KC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.02.43001.7217170.1302.8 (3)4.23.7
26Noah FantN. FantQ NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.42.501.8160.1210.9 (3)4.1—
27Oronde Gadsden IIO. Gadsden II LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.82.79021.9516360.1005.0 (3)4.18.8
28Mitchell EvansM. Evans CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.42.21001.511780.1203.6 (3)3.91.8
29David NjokuD. Njoku LAC@ SEA17.834.0%-7.56.2-0.82.601.8160.096.4 (2)3.9—
30Austin HooperA. Hooper ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.12.21001.511390.0806.6 (2)3.31.9
31Colby ParkinsonC. ParkinsonQ LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.12.601.8100.081.7 (3)3.3—
32Johnny MundtJ. Mundt PHILA19.541.1%-0.56.2-0.82.40001.701000.0702.1 (2)3.20.0
33Foster MoreauF. Moreau HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.22.21001.511110.0705.9 (3)3.01.1
34Cole KmetC. Kmet CHINYJ23.542.3%+0.76.6-0.42.22001.5210130.0603.8 (3)2.93.3
35Jonnu SmithJ. Smith GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.01.81101.1111190.0905.3 (2)2.82.9
36Dawson KnoxD. Knox BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.42.42001.4210130.0703.9 (3)2.83.3
37Theo JohnsonT. Johnson NYGARI21.041.8%+0.27.9+0.82.31001.4110110.0711.0 (2)2.88.1
38Daniel BellingerD. Bellinger TEN@ BAL15.540.6%-0.96.8-0.21.61001.211120.0501.8 (3)2.61.2
39Nate AdkinsN. Adkins DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.31.811.190.086.9 (3)2.6—
40Brevyn Spann-FordB. Spann-Ford DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.41.11000.801300.0902.1 (3)2.60.0
41Matthew HibnerM. Hibner BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.11.52001.0211340.0706.3 (2)2.55.4
42Davis AllenD. Allen LA@ PHI23.041.8%+0.26.9-0.11.72001.20900.0802.6 (3)2.50.0
43Elijah HigginsE. Higgins ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.11.42001.0210190.0712.5 (2)2.59.9
44John BatesJ. Bates WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.81.501.0100.062.6 (2)2.4—
45Brock WrightB. Wright DET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.41.62001.21680.0501.4 (3)2.01.8
46Sam RoushS. Roush CHINYJ23.542.3%+0.76.6-0.41.41000.91880.0502.3 (2)2.01.8
47Drew SampleD. Sample CINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.71.501.150.053.0 (2)2.0—
48Tanner HudsonT. Hudson CINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.71.11000.81620.0602.3 (2)1.81.2
49Luke SchoonmakerL. Schoonmaker DAL@ HOU22.839.0%-2.67.5+0.40.800.690.062.1 (2)1.8—
50Eli RaridonE. RaridonQ NE@ BUF21.344.5%+2.97.2+0.20.72000.519120.0605.6 (2)1.82.2
51Adam TrautmanA. Trautman DEN@ SF22.846.2%+4.66.7-0.31.11000.70700.0503.0 (1)1.70.0
52Ben SinnottB. SinnottLP WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.81.300.960.040.8 (2)1.7—
53Mo Alie-CoxM. Alie-CoxFP IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.70.900.680.052.6 (1)1.6—
54Elijah ArroyoE. Arroyo SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.40.900.660.052.7 (1)1.4—
55Blake WhiteheartB. Whiteheart CLEPIT18.044.2%+2.67.3+0.30.90000.60600.0405.6 (2)1.40.0
56Luke FarrellL. Farrell SFDEN25.841.2%-0.47.0-0.10.90000.60500.0301.3 (3)1.30.0
57Jelani WoodsJ. Woods NYJ@ CHI20.041.6%+0.07.3+0.30.81000.516110.0303.0 (1)1.32.1
58Colson YankoffC. Yankoff WASIND21.042.0%+0.47.8+0.80.91000.60500.0301.2 (3)1.30.0
59Ian ThomasI. Thomas LVKC21.537.7%-3.96.5-0.50.62000.425320.0412.1 (1)1.211.2
60Hunter LongH. Long ARI@ NYG23.540.6%-1.06.9-0.10.81000.614100.0300.5 (3)1.22.0
61Josh CuevasJ. Cuevas BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.10.60000.40500.0402.4 (1)1.10.0
62Jackson HawesJ. Hawes BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.40.800.630.020.0 (1)1.1—
63Quintin MorrisQ. Morris JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.10.80000.50300.0200.9 (2)1.00.0
64Jake BriningstoolJ. Briningstool KC@ LV26.039.5%-2.17.00.00.90000.60300.0201.0 (2)1.00.0
65Ja'Tavion SandersJ. Sanders CARDET24.041.0%-0.67.4+0.40.700.540.02—1.0—
66Eric SaubertE. Saubert SEALAC24.841.1%-0.57.4+0.41.20000.80100.0102.8 (3)1.00.0
67Will MalloryW. Mallory IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.70.300.260.04—0.9—
68Erick AllE. All CINJAX27.039.4%-2.27.7+0.70.900.720.022.5 (1)0.9—
69Nate BoerkircherN. BoerkircherFP JAX@ CIN24.539.5%-2.17.2+0.10.92000.612150.0201.0 (2)0.92.5
70Cade StoverC. Stover HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.20.91000.512200.0200.8 (1)0.83.0
71Will KacmarekW. Kacmarek MIA@ MIN14.335.8%-5.87.00.00.92000.612150.0100.5 (3)0.82.5
72Oscar DelpO. Delp NOATL24.538.6%-3.06.7-0.40.50000.30300.0201.8 (1)0.80.0
73Josh WhyleJ. Whyle GB@ TB20.837.3%-4.27.0+0.00.500.330.02—0.8—
74Tyler ConklinT. Conklin DET@ CAR28.540.6%-0.96.6-0.40.400.230.03—0.8—
75Durham SmytheD. SmytheFP BALTEN27.041.8%+0.27.1+0.10.70000.50100.0100.7 (2)0.60.0
76Charlie WoernerC. Woerner ATL@ NO23.044.8%+3.26.9-0.10.61000.40200.0100.0 (1)0.60.0
77Keleki LatuK. Latu BUFNE28.339.7%-1.96.6-0.40.40000.30200.0200.0 (2)0.60.0
78Andrew OgletreeA. Ogletree IND@ WAS25.539.0%-2.67.7+0.70.70000.40100.0100.0 (2)0.60.0
79Marlin KleinM. Klein HOUDAL25.843.3%+1.77.2+0.20.200.130.022.6 (1)0.5—
80Robert TonyanR. Tonyan PIT@ CLE20.540.8%-0.86.9-0.10.500.410.001.2 (1)0.4—